Posted on 08/29/2005 7:20:10 AM PDT by jb6
ECONOMIC QUESTIONS SURROUND RUSSIAN BASE WITHDRAWAL IN GEORGIA Theresa Freese 8/22/05
As Russia completes the first stage of its base withdrawal from Georgia, residents of Ajara are concerned about the economic implications of the departure of Russian troops.
The parameters for Russia’s withdrawal from its last two remaining military bases in Georgia were set by a joint declaration singed in late May. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. While eager to see the Russian military leave, Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili has acknowledged that the withdrawal could exacerbate "social issues."
Government officials recognize that Russia’s withdrawal will have a broad economic impact on the two regions – Ajara and the southern, primarily ethnic Armenian region of Samtskhe-Javakheti -- where the bases are located. New roads, social welfare support and military food procurement contracts for local farmers have been promised for Akhalkalaki, site of the Russian 62nd base in Samtskhe-Javakheti, which is slated to close in 2007. Detailed plans for Batumi, however, have not been announced. The Russian withdrawal from its 12th base there is scheduled for completion in 2008.
Kakha Shavadze, minister of finance and economy for the autonomous republic of Ajara, said there are "no concrete plans" for replacing the 12th Russian base in Batumi, aside from turning the nearby Gonio military training ground—one of three main military facilities in the region—into a resort after the Russians leave. Asked to comment on re-employment plans for civilian personnel at the Batumi base, Ajaran First Deputy Minister for Health, Labor and Social Welfare Nugzar Surmanidze indicated that planning was still in the early stages.
"Let [Russia] withdraw the bases and we’ll solve the problems with help from our friends," Surmanidze said, adding that he did not know the number of Georgians employed at the base. Surmanidze’s response suggested that assistance provided by the United States and the European Union would comprise a vital part of any social-welfare strategy.
Unanswered questions surround the work prospects for Georgians employed as military personnel at the Batumi base. As part of their service, these individuals also hold Russian citizenship. (The Georgian constitution does not recognize dual citizenship). In a May 31 speech, Saakashvili announced that Georgian citizens employed as military personnel at Russian bases would be eligible to transfer into the Georgian armed services.
Saakashvili’s broad offer applies to only those “who are residents of Georgia and who are citizens of Georgia” otherwise, he offers “guarantees of other employment or social benefits.”
Meanwhile, Russia is actively promoting a job replacement policy for ethnic Georgian servicemen at the bases, and a visa assistance scheme for their families. "In principle, they have all been offered to continue [their] service in the Russian military outside of Georgia," Col. Vladimir Kuparadze, deputy commander of Russian troops in the South Caucasus, said. "We have had discussions with soldiers and sergeants on contract service, and the vast majority has agreed to go."
Kuparadze said it was "difficult to say" just how many servicemen might permanently transfer into the Russian army, but added that a large number of people want to take [Russian] citizenship. By his estimates, some 850 ethnic Georgian "civilians and military personnel" are located at the 12th base in Batumi. Figures are similar for Akhalkalaki, he stated.
To facilitate that transfer, Kuparadze stated, the Russian embassy in Tbilisi is considering simplifying procedures for family members of Georgian service personnel who hold Russian citizenship to obtain Russian passports. Yevgeni Ivanov, spokesperson for the embassy, said that Russian law only allows the consulate to issue visas and residency permits to these individuals.
Discussing a severance package for civilian personnel, Col. Kuparadze said “Russian citizens” will all receive a two-month salary, approximately 400 lari ($222), as compensation as well as an apartment in Russia and a pension upon reaching retirement age.
Representatives of the Georgian Defense Ministry, which is responsible for the implementation of re-training and employment programs, declined to comment for this article. A spokesperson for Ministry of Foreign Affairs said that statements about re-employment schemes could be made only after the government finalized plans covering the future of the vacated Russian facilities.
Some officials appear reluctant to try to accommodate the base workers. Giorgi Charkviani – an Ajaran representative of the office of the Georgian ombudsman and public defender, who led rallies in fall 2004 calling for Russia’s withdrawal from the Batumi base – suggested that no formal re-employment program for Georgians working at the 12th base exists because they have a "pro-Russia psychology," and because Russia already "offers them positions, pensions, accommodation, and high salaries."
Civilian base employees are readying themselves for a stiff drop in pay. Monthly salaries for civilians at the 12th base average about 200 laris ($110.60), according to one construction worker at a facility in Khelvachauri, about 10 kilometers from Batumi. By comparison, salaries in Ajara average about 130 laris, or $65, per month, according to the State Department for Statistics of Georgia.
"People from all over Ajara work at the [facilities]," said the worker. "Our main concern is that we are able to take care of our families."
Fifteen percent of Ajara’s population of 400,000 is unemployed, said Shavadze, the Ajaran finance official, who adds that 59 percent of the region’s residents live under the poverty line. Those figures, however, are several percentage points lower than 2004 numbers, a fact attributed by Shavadze to new construction jobs and an improving regional economy. Local leaders seem to be aware that the base withdrawal could add to the existing unemployment problem. "We are facing serious social problems," Shavadze said.
Shavadze and other regional officials hope a strategy to develop tourism in Ajara could alleviate the economic damage done by the Russian troops’ departure. "Our main economic direction is privatization, and our concentration is on tourism—to sell hotels and tourist centers," said Shavadze.
The Gonio training ground, which includes a firing range and approximately 40 hectares of seaside property, will be turned into a "resort town like Las Vegas," according to Ajaran Minister of Tourism Temur Zoidze. President Saakashvili himself has traveled frequently to Ajara this summer to promote the region as a tourist destination. Some 35,000 tourists, mostly Georgian, are estimated to have visited Ajara so far in 2005. Roughly 11,000 visited in 2004, Zoidze said. The numbers for May and June 2005 alone mark a three-fold increase over the same period in 2004, he claimed.
Some base workers are skeptical that tourism will enable them to make up for lost revenue following the withdrawal. "You can’t find jobs, everyone employs their own relatives," complained one kiosk-owner in Khelvachauri.
"Tourists won’t reach us," added the construction worker from Khelvachauri.
Editor’s Note: Theresa Freese, a graduate of The Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies, is a freelance journalist and political analyst who has been conducting research on unresolved conflicts in the South Caucasus since 2003. Timothy Blauvelt provided translation assistance for this article.
I'd be concerned about the economics of withdrawal as well.
From what I hear about the Rooskies leaving Poland, they took everything that was remotely valuable from their bases: fuel, vehicle parts, scrap metal; they even stripped the copper wire from the buildings (and some of the the plumbing beneath them).
I got the vibe it was less a directive from Moscow than it was individual entrepreneurial soldiers.
Just as we should do when we leave posts, like in Germany. The (Soviets) built those posts they should take it back. We in Germany, when we closed posts like in Nurenburg, built all brand new facilities, costing millions of American dollars (who won the war?) just to give them right up to the Germans (they wouldn't take them back without new facilities). And guess who lives there now? Refugees from 3rd world nations, tearing it all up.
Soros has been using his media organs like Eurasianet to attack the Christian nation of Georgia and accuse their leader, an American ally, of "cracking down on the media" and "rolling back democracy." jb6 denies these same accusations when they are aimed at Putin, but then turns around and disseminates the same lefty propaganda against Saakashvili. What a hypocrite.
Soros is not by any means friendly towards Christians. However, let's remember Soros did not help Georgia without wanting something in return, and apparently Saakashvili did not respond in kind. I honestly believe the Russians have made up their mind to leave. However, Russians do not want to see the Panaski gorge being used by Chechen terrorists as a base to attack Russia.
Well I guess for once, even your broken clock is right. Funding source duly noted.
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