Hurricane Katrina Intermediate Advisory Number 25a
midnight CDT Mon Aug 29 2005
...Potentially catastrophic category five Hurricane Katrina
continues to approach the northern Gulf Coast...
...Sustained hurricane-force winds nearing the southeastern
Louisiana coast...
a Hurricane Warning is in effect for the north central Gulf Coast
from Morgan City Louisiana eastward to the Alabama/Florida
border...including the city of New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch are in effect from
east of the Alabama/Florida border to Destin Florida...and from
west of Morgan City to Intracoastal City Louisiana.
A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect from Destin Florida
eastward to Indian Pass Florida...and from Intracoastal City
Louisiana westward to Cameron Louisiana.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At midnight CDT...0500z...the center of Hurricane Katrina was
located near latitude 27.9 north...longitude 89.5 west or about
90 miles south-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi River
and about 150 miles south-southeast of New Orleans Louisiana.
Katrina is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph...and a
turn to the north is expected over the next 12 to 24 hours. On the
forecast track the center of the hurricane will be very near the
northern Gulf Coast Monday morning. However...conditions are
already deteriorating along portions of the central and
northeastern Gulf Coast...and will continue to worsen through the
night.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 160 mph with higher gusts.
Katrina is a category five hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale.
Some fluctuations in strength are likely prior to landfall...and
Katrina is expected to make landfall at either category four or
five intensity. Winds affecting the upper floors of high-rise
buildings will be significantly stronger than those near ground
level.
Katrina remains a very large hurricane. Hurricane force winds extend
outward up to 105 miles from the center...and tropical storm force
winds extend outward up to 230 miles. A wind gust to 98 mph was
recently reported from Southwest Pass Louisiana.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 908 mb...26.81 inches.
An Air Force Reserve unit reconnaissance aircraft is currently
investigating Katrina.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 18 to 22 feet above normal tide
levels...locally as high as 28 feet...along with large and dangerous
battering waves...can be expected near and to the east of where the
center makes landfall. Some levees in the greater New Orleans area
could be overtopped. Significant storm surge flooding will occur
elsewhere along the central and northeastern Gulf of Mexico coast.
Rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches...with isolated maximum amounts of
15 inches...are possible along the path of Katrina across the Gulf
Coast and the Tennessee Valley. Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches
are possible across the Ohio Valley into the eastern Great Lakes
region Tuesday and Wednesday.
Isolated tornadoes will be possible this evening over southeastern
Louisiana...southern Mississippi...southern Alabama...and over the
Florida Panhandle tonight.
Repeating the midnight CDT position...27.9 N... 89.5 W. Movement
toward...north-northwest near 10 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...160 mph. Minimum central pressure... 908 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 2 am CDT followed by the next
complete advisory at 4 am CDT.
Forecaster Stewart
They haven't indicated any weakening.
"Repeating the midnight CDT position...27.9 N... 89.5 W. Movement
toward...north-northwest near 10 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...160 mph. Minimum central pressure... 908 mb."
Thanks. I plugged that in. It indicates a slight northerly turn, but not enough to rule out wobble.
The Forecast Discussion plots are rougher than the Vortex plots. The FC's are in decimal degrees while the Vortex ones are in degrees and minutes, which cuts down on the "smear error" a little bit.
Taking the last two FC plots only the straightline course runs through Kenner, or 9 miles west of the center of downtown New Orleans.