Looks to me like there's almost no way New Orleans misses the eyewall. Worst possible outcome for the city.
Not entirely true. "Worst possible outcome for the city" would be a slight move west which would surely destroy the levies. East would've been ideal but directly passing over is second best. Three residents from a nursing home died on the bus ride during the evaculation.
"Looks to me like there's almost no way New Orleans misses the eyewall. Worst possible outcome for the
city."
Well yes, but....see how the 2200 +12/24 plot is drifting east of the 1600 one?
Fingers crossed, hoping the trend continues.
Max surge seems to take place from 355 to 015 degrees relative to the forward motion of the storm. As big as this one is, that swath will be pretty wide. I hate playing god, but I think fewer will die if the surge comes ashore someplace where the population center isn't largely below sea level.
The further east this storm drifts, the less the westward wind at the head of the eyewall will drive it into Lake P.
Note though, that she's slowing down, and that none of the actual data shows any eastward drift at all, not yet. The longer the winds have to drive the surf ashore, the worse the surge, no matter where it strikes.