Posted on 08/27/2005 11:46:06 PM PDT by Crazieman
I was there for the clean up in 1969. That whole area was flattened. And this one looks ominously like Camille.
Let's hope it weakens as it approaches the coast.
Alexandria has no lodging available for the next several days and there's price gouging going on at the hotels. Coverage continues at this link:
http://www.thetowntalk.com/apps/pbcs.dll/frontpage
My phone's ringing like crazy with calls from concerned friends and relatives up North. I think we'll be OK in Cenla, but I am posting the same message on several threads so evacuees don't head up I-49 to Alexandria or Shreveport only to find "no room at the Inn."
Prayers to all in Katrina's path!
Storm aims for heart of U.S. oil industry
Gas prices may jump sharply
Sunday, August 28, 2005
By BEN RAINES
Staff Reporter
Oil traders closed business on Friday confident that Hurricane Katrina would hit too far to the east to affect the price of oil and natural gas.
That was before the National Hurricane Center shifted the storm's possible path to a more westerly track that slices through the nation's main oil artery and could result in record prices for a barrel of crude within a matter of days.
If Hurricane Katrina holds true to predictions and tracks north through the toe of Louisiana's boot, much of the nation's oil and natural gas infrastructure will be exposed to 140 mile per hour winds, 30- to 50-foot waves, and water current speeds of around 20 knots all the way from the surface to the sea floor.
"This storm is going to pass through the meat of the oil and gas fields. The whole country will feel it, because it's going to cripple us and the country's whole economy," said Capt. Buddy Cantrelle with Kevin Gros Offshore, which supplies rigs via a fleet of large crew vessels.
Nation's oil center
The equipment located in the storm's likely path includes the bulk of the nation's oil and gas production platforms, thousands of miles of pipelines and -- perhaps most importantly for national gasoline prices -- much of the country's refinery capacity. In addition, the south Louisiana coastline serves as the entry point for around a third of the nation's imported oil.
Last year's Hurricane Ivan, which came ashore along the Alabama-Florida line moving through an area mostly devoid of rigs, caused widespread destruction both above and below water in the fields off Alabama and eastern Louisiana. Floating rigs were found drifting hundreds of miles from the wells they had been plumbing, while some rigs with legs fixed to the bottom toppled into the sea. Hundreds of millions of dollars worth of pipelines were tangled and torn to pieces by sea currents and massive underwater mudslides.
The full extent of the damage wasn't known for days and the Gulf lost nearly 30 percent of production capacity for well over a month, which drove prices for oil up $12 a barrel within a few weeks. Prices for both oil and natural gas surged upward and stayed high for months.
Major threat
But that storm was just a baby tap on the Gulf's infrastructure compared with the blow some in the oil industry are predicting from Katrina.
"No matter where it hits at this point, it's going to hit a lot of rigs, and the whole country is going to notice," Cantrelle said. "And if this thing comes up through Port Fourchon like they're calling for right now, well, that's where 30 percent of the country's oil comes ashore. They are forecasting 40-foot seas for Fourchon."
Port Fourchon, located at the tail end of a barely there two-lane highway just a foot or two above sea level, sits exposed to the sea almost like an island lighthouse thanks to the loss of thousands of acres of marsh that once surrounded it. The port complex -- like that skinny strip of a highway now so low and close to the water that fishermen use parts of the shoulder as a miles-long boat ramp -- has been rendered ever more vulnerable by the massive erosion of Louisiana's coastal marshes.
"A storm of this magnitude, we're expecting some serious damage here," C.J. Cheramie with the Fourchon Port Police said Saturday afternoon. "They started evacuating the rigs once the storm got into the Gulf. We haven't seen any helicopter traffic in awhile, suggesting that everyone has made it in. We are evacuating inland. We'll try to reopen the port as quickly as we can. ... there's just no way to predict what will happen with a storm this size."
Cheramie said he hadn't heard about a helicopter crash reported earlier in the day. Cantrelle, with the crew boat company, told the Register that one of his boats picked up all three passangers unharmed after their copter was forced to ditch into the ocean on its way back to shore.
Thousands of the 5,000 rig platforms in the Gulf are located in the predicted path of the storm, and many of them are aging. In previous storms, it has been the older rigs that most often end up wrecked.
"Lot of these jack-up rigs, we've been towing them around for 25 or 30 years. These things are getting to be pretty old," said Bobby Autin, with Louisiana International Marine, a rig towing company. "The storm shifted so fast nobody really had a chance to do much but get the people off the rigs. We didn't move any. I sent all of my boats to Texas."
Lots of work ahead
Autin said that as soon as Katrina makes landfall he will scramble his boats back toward Fourchon because he expects there will be a lot of work.
"There are always going to be rigs in trouble after a storm like this. We may have to tow some, or some we will even hold in place if they've tipped over until they can get to them to work on," Autin said. "We were all stunned earlier this year by Cindy when it came through. It was just a tropical storm and it did a lot of damage offshore. They're saying this storm is on the same track. Imagine what it's going to be like if a category 5 comes rolling through these rigs."
Be aware that CenLA (Central Louisiana) might get hit by tornadoes. Hurricanes in the past have spawned deadly tornadoes. Be watchful for that, please!
But if one can make Shreveport on I-49, people could travel East to Texas. Dallas-Fort Worth and places East of there should have plenty of lodging.
West of Lake Charles (LA) should be safe and lodging should be available -- especially the Houston metro area. Beaumont (TX) and west on I-10 may have lodging available. Houston (TX) should not have any lodging problems -- if people can make it that far.
It will be tough to get past Lafayette (LA) heading West, as I-10 is bound to be heavily congested in the next 24 hours.
I hope someone could re-route some of the Truck traffic to I-20 rather than on I-10 (or even routing north to I-40), but fuel prices make it tough for truckers to divert...
Thousands of the 5,000 rig platforms in the Gulf are located in the predicted path of the storm, and many of them are aging. In previous storms, it has been the older rigs that most often end up wrecked.
Unfortunately, it has been recently learned that a 40 foot air gap is woefully inadequate for some storms. One of the recent storms had 90 foot waves -- rendering the 40 foot air grap unsafe.
Back in the 1970s, I always thought the 40 foot air gap was excessive.
The only good news is that they can shut in these wells on the Gulf of Mexico floor, and they have to.
But some places that stage oil field workers are going to get wiped out -- such as Venice (LA). That is going to make recovery tougher...
Sunday is a good time to pray, and we need lots of prayers right now...
She's quite impressive...I pray people heed the warnings and get there butts to higher ground.....whoever is in that 30-35 mile wide corridor is gonna wish they did....prayers for the people along the coast...
The NHC agrees with you. From their 11:00EDT "Discussion":
THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS JUST MEASURED A 166 KT FLIGHT LEVEL WIND IN THE NORTHEAST EYEWALL...WHICH REQUIRES AN ADDITIONAL UPWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE CURRENT INTENSITY TO 150 KT. A DROP IN THE EYE GAVE A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 907 MB. KATRINA IS COMPARABLE IN INTENSITY TO HURRICANE CAMILLE OF 1969...ONLY LARGER.
Unfortunately, I believe you are right. There are still situations in the USA where folks could have to take care of themselves.
They just interviewed a resident of NO on Fox News and he expected a foot of water in downtown NO. Try 20ft.
Sustained hurricane winds for 3 hrs.
I don't know if it will matter.
Take a look at this!
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1472323/posts?page=54#54
It's not looking good at all!
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1472323/posts?page=54#54
"You will still get battered, but once inland the storm downgrades rapidly."
Camille degraded, but not fast enough for me!
This report is very disturbing.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1472323/posts?page=54#54
Welcome to FR!
Stay safe!
Excellent point about the tornados. I moved from Gloucester, Massachusetts (home of "The Perfect Storm" no less) to Central Louisiana in 2003. I distinctly remember being glued to The Weather Channel in 2002 watching about 14 tornados spin off from Hurricane Lili in the Alexandria area, and being worried sick about my family living here. I live in a sturdy apartment building in a neighborhood with good drainage, but I certainly am fearful for the people who live in trailers, most of whom carry no homeowners insurance.
They had an awful tornado here a while back in the little town of Olla, LA which was exactly that type of scenario. An elderly woman was killed, many uninsured trailers were destroyed leaving families homeless, and the local high school was damaged to the point where the kids had to move to an old factory building for the remainder of the school year. It made me so furious that FEMA refused to release a single dime to Olla. I remember reading stories side-by-side about FEMA funds being misappropriated in Florida (if I recall correctly, $27 million had to be repaid by people who shouldn't have received the money) at the same time that country music entertainers were performing benefit concerts at places like Paragon Casino Resort to help raise money for Olla. The town still needs plenty of aid to rebuild itself long after the headlines have faded away.
Let's hope the tornados don't cause as much destruction this time around.
bttt
Geez. Based on what happened in 1969, now would be a good time to get out of Dodge.
Louisiana FReepers, stay safe! Same for those of you who might end up in the path of this thing in Mississippi and Alabama.
Is this hurricane looking more like Camille as she proceeds closer to land?
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