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Posted on 08/26/2005 10:25:04 PM PDT by NautiNurse
Great map there nwc.
Make it a good one, folks.
After looking over several of the websites that talk about and model the catastrophic hits, I think I can sketch out a rough window of where the eye has to pass for the levees to be overtopped (levee or pump failure is another matter.) For a Cat 4 storm, it would need to cross within a rough arc that runs from the MS/LA border, bows out a bit east of Alluvial City, down to Bohemia, west to Larose and Raceland, and north to Reserve(west of the I-10/I-55 split.) If runs east or west enough to stay out of that arc, regardless of angle, in theory the city should be spared the storm surge flood filling the bowl.
While I was watching the Bourbon Street cam the street band was playing "Yellow Submarine"...that might be prophetic.
They've had to evacuate too many times for them to be sensible, although I have heard that the highways really are full of people heading out. I have a friend there waiting...she has to have her son drive her and he's waiting until tomorrow to see what the storm will do.
If it were me, I'd go. This one reminds me too much of the track of Betsy for my comfort level.
Someone earlier in the day posted this. It's an interesting read.
http://www.weather.com/newscenter/specialreports/hurricanes/vulnerablecities/neworleans.html
XTRP...that's the best track for US...not good for Mexico, though...
Hurricane Watches are extended to MS and AL.
XTRP isn't a model, it's a straight extrapolation of the motion for the last few hours.
It has precisely zero chance of being correct.
Model bias has been west this season... though, if they only shift slightly east, NO is more under the gun. Still waiting for the turn.
How wide is that arc?
OH...are the others tracks?
Looks like the mayor would go ahead & shut everything down & call for a mandatory evacuation.
Kind of like watching a train wreck about to happen.
Well OFCI is the official track...the others are various computer models.
It's rare to see them that tightly clustered. The models vary in quality and reliability so if they were scattered you'd have to know about the quality of each, but in this case, you really don't.
Roughly 30 miles outside the levees (not city center) on the east and south, a bit less on the west.
That about frames Lake Pontchartrain.
NO traffic cams on I-10 showing much lighter traffic then before...its almost like some people left right away but most are staying put
What about your program...is it doing the same thing...?? Pointing toward NO?
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