Posted on 08/24/2005 6:06:17 AM PDT by minerboy
hink high gas prices are bad?
Get a load of what ex-oilman and ex-Princeton professor Kenneth Deffeyes believes are following closely behind:
"War, famine, pestilence and death," he said. "We've got to get the warning out."
The threat? Peak oil.
The term refers to the time when the worldwide production of oil peaks and begins a rapid decline. From then on, this incredibly efficient fuel source, which still costs less than most bottled water, will be ever more scarce and ever more costly.
Highly respected sources, including the U.S. government, think that day is distant, and most mainstream economists think it won't cause much of a ruckus.
But Deffeyes thinks peak oil is coming in November, and could bring humankind to the brink.
"It's been like pulling teeth to get public awareness," he said.
So who is this well-credentialed Chicken Little?
Deffeyes grew up next to gushing oil wells. He is a former petroleum geologist himself, having worked for Shell Oil for six years after earning a doctorate from Princeton.
He is a devotee of former Shell geologist M. King Hubbert, who correctly predicted U.S. oil production would peak in the early 1970s. Deffeyes is also the author of "Hubbert's Peak" and "Beyond Oil: The View From Hubbert's Peak," which was published last spring.
He is among a cadre of peak-oil proponents who sketch out a frightening near-term future in which the American way of life is upended as the United States, China and great nations scramble after oil fields like desperate players in a game of musical chairs.
(Excerpt) Read more at statesman.com ...
Perhaps my sons Honda Metropolitan Scooter which he never rides, won't sell and I have to move everytime I need to get the mower out will come in handy - after the sky falls of course.
Tom Gold was a plagerist who didn't even get the facts straight.
Oh yes, a drill rig worker knows all, I forgot... I only design the equipment, I know nothing at all.
Time to smell the coffee. wtc911 is correct. Peak oil is already here. Not because of a shortage of oil field production. But because of global politics and the factors I outlined in post # 58.
One of my brothers had a late 70's diesel chevette that got 48mpg.
Well, I just diagree with the Gas/Electric for fuel economy solution for the passenger vehicle... The general production level fuel economy doesn't beat TDI technology, but adds thousands of dollars to costs, and not to mention the "eco" issues with the batteries etc.
If a straight diesel engine, 4 cylinders using TDI can get 50 MPG or higher without the aid of being a hybrid, why would arguing a standard Gasoline engine, tied to electric hybrid accomplishing the same output is a better solution?
It just makes no sense, added materials, costs, complexity, and still do not beat technology that has been around since the 70s in terms of fuel efficiency, and since the mid 90s in terms of eco friendliness.
I had a 1991 VW Fox, little in line 4 banger, standard gas engine, tied to a 5 speed manual transmission and I could get about 40-45 MPG on the highway. It was size wise comparable interior to the subcompact hybrids 4 adults comfortably, didn't have all the added cost and complication.
I am not saying a GAS/ELECTRIC hybrid may not be one day a better solution.. IE 1 cylinder moped engine, generating enough electricity to drive a typical car at normal speeds... but the stuff out there right now, just isn't beating existing standard solutions that are far less complicated. Tax subsidies and CAFE credits are behind the hybrid fad, as far as I can tell, not practical fuel economics.
Wasn't it one of those 'rags' that broke the Clinton/Lewinski story?
I saw the cover as well last week at a supermarket. It's not "The National Enquirer" which is what you are thinking of, Bear. Believe it or not, this tabloid is actually several steps below the "The Enquirer" when it comes to credibility (the name escapes me, "News of the World"?).
This tabloid has had some hilarious stories over the years. They had a "photo" of Rush meeting with space aliens to receive their endorsement for a presidential run. They had a cover story about Bill'n'Hill adopting an alien baby. Their recent "oil" story had a fake photo of desperate mobs around oil derricks. A real hoot.
I'm driving a Toyota diesel myself. It averages 38 mpg and gets over 43 mpg on the highway. The problem for me is that with increasing demand by truckers, diesel fuel has gone up about $ 1.25 + a gallon in the past year.
There is no biblical reason to say they are. It simply isn't there.
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"tree-hugging nonsense"...perfectly put.
Peter never said those 6 days are not 24 hr days.
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Problems with this....
1)technology has not yet found a way to extract more than roughly half of the oil in any field so reduce your expectation to 21 years.
2)Our level of consumption is accelerating at a rate exponentially faster than the annual increase in production, which will further reduce your specutated time-frame.
It is not written that the Earth is 5 billion years old. The bible gived the Chronology of creation from Adam to Jesus and Adam was created on the 6th day of creation. 5 days after the 1st day.
You're probably thinking of Weekly World News. Always good for a laugh.
Yes it is since there was nothing that could support life before the first day.
Subject: Oil and Gas Rise as Storm May Threaten U.S. Rigs in Gulf of Mexico
Description: Crude oil rose and natural gas reached $10 for the first time in 30 months in New York due to concern over a storm developing near the Bahamas which may become a hurricane and threaten rigs in the Gulf of Mexico, the biggest source of U.S. production. Oil for October delivery climbed 58 cents, to $66.29 a barrel on the Nymex. Natural gas for September delivery gained as much as 44.5 cents, to $10.128 per million British thermal units on the Nymex.
Out of the 10 named storms this season, seven have entered the Gulf of Mexico and four disrupted oil supplies. According to the National Hurricane Center in Miami, the 12th tropical depression of the season will probably make a path toward Southern Florida and then strengthen into a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. “Significant hurricane damage to oil fields and refineries could make us test $70 a barrel,” said Kevin Norrish, and analyst at Barclays.
There have been other disruptions as well due to unrest in Iraq, Ecuador and Nigeria, and disruptions make the market nervous. Surging global oil demand has forced OPEC, who produces about 40% of the world’s oil, to pump crude almost at capacity which has left them with little margin to compensate for disruptions to supply. But, according to a Bloomberg survey, record prices are doing little to curtail demand.
Sanford Bernstein analysts said that U.S. natural gas may rise to $12 or $15 per million British thermal units this winter, should crude oil rise to $80 or $90 a barrel.
Source: Bloomberg (24-Aug-05)
B'zzzt. Wrong. 1 trillion barrels. All for $10 per barrel. H'mmmmm.
As the playwrite noted in Macbeth, "I think the lady doth protest too much."
I do think there is some countervailing interests preventing exploitation of these fields. And you have put your finger solely on "Big Oil" I see. Perhaps.
But there are a number of others. Big Eco-Wackoism is another. And also the possible ulterior foreign agenda of the administration to try and diminish the financial leverage of the Arabs by draining their oil supply to marginal insignificance. But that surely can't be accomplished in the near term, and is a long-term project. Nor is it without the shortterm hazard of accomplishing the reverse effect...driving up their oil revenues by the supply-demand process to the point where they are becoming a bigger problem in the immediate future...not a lesser.
"It is not written that the Earth is 5 billion years old."
That is correct we are not given the AGE of this earth, yet we are told it is ancient and very old.
"The bible gived the Chronology of creation from Adam to Jesus and Adam was created on the 6th day of creation. 5 days after the 1st day."
We are told about "GENERATIONS" before The Adam was ever created.
Then after The Adam was created we are given his generations. NOT ONE WORD IS GIVEN about the age of the earth. Now why didn't Noah save any of these creatures???? Why, they were not here to be saved.
That is primarily due to Eco-Wackoism, from what I understand. Simple economics perverted by the externality of environmental litigatory/legislative obstructionists.
Wake up, Paul! You are never going to see shale developed for fuel. Never. It is not going to happen. Well, not for at least 20 years. Then add another 10 years on for start up time. Unless you can bribe Standard Oil-Chevron-Texico-BP-Unocal to do it. Do you have the cash for the BIG bribe? I think not. Bush does not give a r@t's@ass about high oil prices either. Both political parties are in the pockets of big oil. So you can shout from the roof tops all day long. Scream louder if you want to. Your efforts are all for naught. It's never going to happen.
You heard it here first.
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