Posted on 08/23/2005 11:43:35 AM PDT by nwctwx
What's that, 75mph? We had thunderstorms with 60mph winds yesterday. I am so sick of everyone wetting their pants for weather that we've had how many hundreds of years of?
Andrew, Betsy, Camille, big suckers over 150mph- ok. But, honestly, getting into panic mode over every tropical thing with a name is sad.
Hard to believe we are descended from people who braved the elements in shacks- and survived. Now we sit in modern cities and get panic attacks over 75mph wind.
Good grief- why not just permanently force everyone from their homes within-say-100 miles of the Gulf Coast and be done with it?
Been watching the Weather Channel some tonight. They're positivley giddy. They've been worried sick about the lull in tropical activity the past month.
Now they got some bad news to report...
Umm, I said yeehaw dude. I am not taking this seriously. It looks like it's going to be just a cool low damage storm.
You just know if we get to Tammy that the Gulf Coast is in for a kicker.
Haven't seen anyone requiring a change of pants for this weather. Apparently there aren't enough threads on FR to keep you otherwise occupied, or perhaps you would prefer to be removed from the ping list?
...Tropical depression gradually organizing and moving slowly northwestward... ...Tropical storm watch issued for portions of the Florida Keys and Florida East Coast...
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the central and northwestern Bahamas... including Cat Island... the Exumas... Long Island... Rum Cay... San Salvador... the northwestern Bahamas... the Abacos... Andros Island... the Berry Islands... Bimini... Eleuthera... Grand Bahama Island... and New Providence. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.
At 11 PM EDT... 0300z... a tropical storm watch has been issued for portions of the East Coast of Florida and the Florida Keys from west of the Seven Mile Bridge northward to Vero Beach. A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
At 11 PM EDT...0300z...the center of Tropical Depression Twelve was estimated near latitude 23.4 north... longitude 76.0 west or about 140 miles... 230 km... southeast of Nassau.
The depression is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph... 11 km/hr... and this general motion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph... 55 km/hr... with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours... and the depression could become a tropical storm on Wednesday.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb...29.74 inches.
The depression is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over the central and northwestern Bahamas... with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches possible. Total rainfall accumulations of 3 to 5 inches are expected along the north coast of Cuba.
Storm surge flooding of 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels... along with large and dangerous battering waves... can be expected near the center in areas of onshore winds in the Bahamas.
Repeating the 11 PM EDT position...23.4 N... 76.0 W. Movement toward...northwest near 7 mph. Maximum sustained winds... 35 mph. Minimum central pressure...1007 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 2 am EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 5 am EDT.
Forecaster Knabb
Whoa, just had the EMS signal sound on the weather radio for the 11 PM raising of the watches for Florida's east coast as far north as Vero Beach. TS status expected by Wednesday.
Shields up!
Where are the links? Did NHC issue a discussion thread with this advisory?
Tropical Depression Twelve Discussion Number 2... Corrected
Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on August 23, 2005
...Corrected to clarify convective band in first paragraph and
potential timeline of watches and warnings in next to last
paragraph...
the reconnaissance aircraft... prior to departing the depression
after about 2230z... continued to report a minimum central pressure
near 1007 mb... and maximum flight level winds during this mission
never exceeded the 39 kt observed shortly after 18z. During the
past couple of hours... the center has been near Georgetown on
great Exuma Island in the central Bahamas... where 1007 mb and
nearly calm winds have recently been reported. Lacking any data to
support a stronger system... the advisory intensity is maintained
at 30 kt. However... recently a band of deep convection... with
some tops colder than -80c... has strengthened to the east of the
circulation center... and this band could wrap sufficiently around
the center within the next several hours to soon make this system a
tropical storm. Radar imagery from great Exuma also depicts a
nearly continuous curved band of rainfall beneath these convective
tops.
The earlier aircraft fixes suggested that the depression was moving
erratically. Based on continuity and on surface observations from
the Bahamas... the initial motion estimate is 305/6 kt... a little
slower than before. The weak steering currents are a result of
the depression lying to the south of a narrow mid level ridge axis
oriented east to west between Bermuda and northern Florida. Since
most of the dynamical models do not forecast this ridge to
strengthen much off the U.S. East Coast during the next few days...
a slow motion is anticipated throughout the forecast period... with
a westward Bend beyond about 36 hours. Most of the dynamical
guidance... except for the GFS... generally agree with this
scenario. The GFS continues to be the single outlier forecasting
that this system will stall over Florida beyond about 48 hours.
The new official forecast is a little slower and to the right of
the previous advisory... to come into better agreement with the
model consensus.
Given the slow trend this evening toward increased organization...
the depression could become a tropical storm early on Wednesday
morning. Beyond that time... the intensity forecast is problematic
for many reasons... not the least of which is widely differing
model guidance. The GFDL still does not even forecast strengthening
to a tropical storm. However... the SHIPS model still insists on
hurricane intensity by 48 hours before the system crosses
Florida... within an environment of modest wind shear and over very
warm SSTs. As more of a compromise between these solutions... but
still leaning toward the SHIPS... the official forecast is just a
little more conservative than the previous advisory... but still
calls for a strong tropical storm to approach Florida within the
next couple of days.
Since tropical storm force winds could be very close to the
southeast coast of Florida and the northern Florida Keys in about
36 hours... a tropical storm watch has been issued at this time. A
Tropical Storm Warning could be issued for portions of the tropical
storm watch area on Wednesday... possibly including a Hurricane
Watch if the depression strengthens more rapidly than currently
forecast.
The uncertainty in this forecast... and the potential impacts of
this tropical cyclone... are quantified in an experimental NHC text
product issued with this and every advisory package during 2005.
This product provides wind speed probabilities at specific
locations. The probabilities of experiencing tropical storm force
winds from this system during the next five days are similar at
each individual location throughout the tropical storm watch area.
Forecaster Knabb
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 24/0300z 23.4n 76.0w 30 kt
12hr VT 24/1200z 24.2n 76.7w 35 kt
24hr VT 25/0000z 25.1n 77.7w 40 kt
36hr VT 25/1200z 25.7n 78.5w 45 kt
48hr VT 26/0000z 26.1n 79.5w 55 kt
72hr VT 27/0000z 26.5n 81.5w 40 kt...inland
96hr VT 28/0000z 27.0n 83.5w 55 kt
120hr VT 29/0000z 27.5n 85.5w 65 kt
I agree with your point, the local weather folks try to drive us all into a frenzy over nothing, just to improve ratings, and I suppose they like feeling important, like most of us. One guy who does not do that is Don Noe, ch 10 meteorologist in Miami. He's my favorite for that reason, he just tells it like it is, straightforward, no exaggeration.
OTOH, Andrew went from a tropical storm to a cat 4 in less than a day before it slammed Eleuthera, Cat Cay, and us here in Miami, so I'm not particularly blase about these things either.
If you live on the coast in So FL or the Gulf coast you're going to be hit once in awhile. Even the east coast, esp. in NC. It's just a part of life.
You got OUR best meterologist- David Bernard, there in Miami. Listen to him. We're now left with the nutballs.
OK, he's on ch 4, with Brian Norcross, who is good, but always seems too much to want a hurricane to hit. Bernard is filling the slot for Bob Soper, who was also good.
I'll look out for Bernard and will be interested to see him, but will be hard put not to favor Noe after all these years of watching him.
To tell you the truth, when a storm is approaching, if I actually have the time to watch, I hit all the channels, keep the dial turning. 'Course I don't have cable, so there's only 3 channels to monitor.
Tropical Depression 12 currently near Great Exuma Island in the central Bahamas and moving slowly to the northwest. The TD is poorly organized and a narrow zone of mid-level southerly winds to the immediate west of the center will disrupt any rapid development of this cyclone. A strong high pressure system (at least strong for Summer) presents a blocking pattern to the north of the system for the next few days. The southerly shear should relax by Wednesday evening after which slow intensification seems likely.
I'll stick my neck out and say that I don't think that TD 12/Katrina? will ever sample the waters of the Gulf. Steering currents are very weak and expected to remain that way, and if the GFS solution is wrong, it is at least consistently wrong - however, the system will be moving so slowly that there will be plenty of time to better define the eventual track. Right now my biggest concern is with excessive rain rather than high wind for the Florida peninsula.
Ed DunhamAdministrator Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator
...Tropical depression moving slowly northwestward through the Bahamas...nearing tropical storm strength...
a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the central and northwestern Bahamas... including Cat Island... the Exumas... Long Island... Rum Cay... San Salvador... the northwestern Bahamas... the Abacos... Andros Island... the Berry Islands... Bimini... Eleuthera... Grand Bahama Island... and New Providence. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.
A tropical storm watch remains in effect for portions of the East Coast of Florida and the Florida Keys from west of the Seven Mile Bridge northward to Vero Beach. A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area... generally within 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch may be required later today for portions of the Florida East Coast.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
At 5 am EDT...0900z...the center of Tropical Depression Twelve was located near latitude 24.0 north...longitude 76.4 west or about 95 miles... 150 km...southeast of Nassau and about 270 miles... 430 km...east-southeast of the southeast coast of Florida.
The depression is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph ...11 km/hr...and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. This motion should bring the center through the central and northwestern Bahamas.
Reports from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph... 55 km/hr...with higher gusts...mainly in squalls to the east of the center. Strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours...and the depression could become a tropical storm later today.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb...29.71 inches. Georgetown on great Exuma Island recently reported a pressure of 1006.8 mb...29.73 inches.
The depression is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over the central and northwestern Bahamas... with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches possible. Isolated rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches are possible along the north coast of Cuba.
Storm surge flooding of 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels... along with large and dangerous battering waves... can be expected near the center in areas of onshore winds in the Bahamas.
Repeating the 5 am EDT position...24.0 N... 76.4 W. Movement toward...northwest near 7 mph. Maximum sustained winds... 35 mph. Minimum central pressure...1006 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 8 am EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 11 am EDT.
Forecaster Beven
I'm thinking about Andrew .. ping to my memory post
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/1469505/posts
David Bernard is also VERY easy on the eyes- ;->, which doesn't hurt if you have to hear bad news weather-wise.
Ha! I probably like some of the Weather Channel girls better for the easy on the eyes part. 'Course I hardly ever watch TV, so I don't even know who they have.
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