Tropical Depression 12 currently near Great Exuma Island in the central Bahamas and moving slowly to the northwest. The TD is poorly organized and a narrow zone of mid-level southerly winds to the immediate west of the center will disrupt any rapid development of this cyclone. A strong high pressure system (at least strong for Summer) presents a blocking pattern to the north of the system for the next few days. The southerly shear should relax by Wednesday evening after which slow intensification seems likely.
I'll stick my neck out and say that I don't think that TD 12/Katrina? will ever sample the waters of the Gulf. Steering currents are very weak and expected to remain that way, and if the GFS solution is wrong, it is at least consistently wrong - however, the system will be moving so slowly that there will be plenty of time to better define the eventual track. Right now my biggest concern is with excessive rain rather than high wind for the Florida peninsula.
Ed DunhamAdministrator Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator