Posted on 08/23/2005 11:43:35 AM PDT by nwctwx
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 235 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2005
...TWELFTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON FORMING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA AND SURFACE REPORTS INDICATE A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS FORMING WITHIN THE DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. THE CENTER OF THE BROAD CIRCULATION IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF LONG ISLAND IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND SURFACE WINDS ARE AROUND 35 MPH. ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED ON THIS SYSTEM AT 5 PM EDT.
TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
FORECASTER STEWART
ping.
Which is TD 10 reincarnated.
Is this the one those of us in S. Florida should be looking at?
TD 10 was absorbed by the new system, but it is the same general cloud mass.
i see another disturbance way out in the atlantic. looks like it may be developing into something. any word on that yet?
It's current position would make U.S. landfall chances quite high. With a ridge building to the north, it should threaten FL... then likely move into the Gulf of Mexico.
They think it will develop but recurve up into the Atlantic and not affect the US.
Floater #1 is now on the system, moved from Jose... which got no real press. ;-)
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html
Great.....as long as it holds off for 10 more days, hubby is leaving for Texas this Thursday for a week to visit his ailing mother.
Guess I should get him to give me a crash course in putting up our hurricane shutters.
I noticed Hurricane Hilary (pacific) turned into a non-event.........
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
218 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2005
VALID 12Z FRI AUG 26 2005 - 12Z TUE AUG 30 2005
FINAL MEDIUM RANGE DISCUSSION...
TO THE SOUTH OF THESE HIGHER LAT ANOMALIES...MID LEVEL HTS ARE
FCST TO BE NEAR NORMAL IN A FLAT RIDGE ACRS THE SRN TIER OF THE
NATION. THE STRENGTH OF THIS RIDGE AND THE DEGREE OF WEAKENESS IN
IT WL BE CRUCIAL FOR THE TRACK OF THE AREA OF TROPICAL WEATHER
INVOF THE BAHAMAS THAT MAY AFFECT FL AND THE NERN AND NCNTRL GULF
THIS PERIOD. THE MAJORITY OF THE MED RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATE THIS
LOW MOVG ACRS THE SRN PORTION OF THE FL PENINSULA AND INTO THE ERN
GULF BY LATE IN THE WEEK AS IT CONTS ON THE S SIDE OF THE WEAK UPR
RIDGE. THE GFS CONTS TO BE ON THE RT HAND SIDE OF THE MODEL SOLNS
IN SHOWING A TRACK ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FL FRI-SUN AND THEN
ALONG THE SERN COAST MON-TUE. THE ONE THING ALL THE MODELS DO
AGREE ON IS THAT THERE WL BE EVENTUAL WEAKENESS IN THIS UPR RIDGE
FROM THE STREAM OF STRONG SYSTEMS PUSHING IN THE NRN STREAM ALONG
THE U.S./CAN BORDER. THIS WOULD THEN SUPPORT A MORE NWD COMPONENT
TO THE TRACK AND POSSIBLE EFFECTS FOR THE ERN GULF COAST. THE
LATEST MED RANGE PROGS ARE FOLLOWING THE TPC PREFERRED AND MODEL
CONSENSUS SOLN...ALBEIT SLOWER...IN PUSHING ACRS SCNTRL FL
FRI-SAT (DAYS 3-4)..INTO THE ERN GULF BY SUN (DAY 5). AT THIS
POINT THE ADVERTISED WEAKNESS IN THE E-W RIDGE ALONG THE GULF
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A MORE NWD COMPONENT TO THE TRACK...WITH A
THREAT FOR THE CNTRL TO ERN GULF COASTAL AREA BY THE BEGINNNING OF
NEXT WEEK. SEE LATEST TPC DISCUSSIONS FOR LATEST UPDATES ON THIS
STORMS POTENTIAL.
Would it be a minimal hurricane by the time it gets to Florida?
Doesn't seem likely to me since it's not even a tropical storm yet, and it's got to go over land to get here.
Is it really the remnants of TD 10? last night's report said that would arrive in Fla on Thurs or Fri. Is this the same thing or the next wave?
Things are getting busy out there...and near here... Tropical Storm Jose popped up and landed in Mexico in the blink of an eye during the wee hours this morning. Now we have TD 12, and another system out in the Atlantic looking on the healthy side.
Yeah poor old Jose sure didn't get to live very long and was hardly even noticed.
It's still 2-4 days out based on present and suspected movement... quite slow moving. The storm will be over water most of that time, the islands are rather small and won't disrupt any gathering circulation very much. I think the biggest problems with this possible storm would come for someone in the Gulf of Mexico, but it's too early to figure out where the ridge weakness will line up.
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