A monkey wrench in Hillary's Plan A

townhall.com ^ | August 22, 2005 | Jay Bryant

[livesbygrace]

Jeanine Pirro's entry into the New York Senate race has thrown a monkey wrench into the Hillary for President plan – a plan concocted almost a decade ago (if not even earlier) that has been working almost to perfection until now.

Here's how Plan A comes down:

Win the Senate seat from New York in 2000 Compile as moderate a record as possible given who you are and the realities of the Democratic Party Influence to the extent possible the election in 2000 of an eight-year presidency (preferably Republican) so there will be no incumbent running in 2008 Guard against a takeover of the Democratic Party by a strong leader independent of Clinton influence Decline to run for re-election to the Senate in 2006, and Spend 2007 and 2008 mounting a successful campaign to become the first woman President of the United States. If the not-running-for-reelection thing surprises you, consider that it would give HRC (What perfect initials; it's so hard not to imagine the first two stand for "Her Royal…") would gain four advantages. The first is that she would not have to continue being just one of one hundred – not the Clinton style at all. The second is to avoid having to cast tough votes, all the more important with a Republican majority, which having control of the agenda, can figure out ways to force her to cast tough votes. The third is to be able to use the 2006 election year gathering chits from Democratic candidates around the country by helping them raise money, crowds and votes. And the fourth is to be able to campaign full-time for President once her Senate term is over in January 2007.

Westchester County District Attorney Pirro, once named by People magazine as one of the Fifty Most Beautiful People, is tough, smart and still gorgeous. That's the good news. The bad news is that her husband did time for income tax evasion, fathered a child out of wedlock and appears to be a general scumbag, a word that has also been applied to Hillary's husband.

Pirro's chances of actually beating Hillary aren't great, for a lot of reasons, but the attention she has drawn by her announcement have put the political world abuzz, and that's why it's a monkey wrench for HRC.

The South never had much chance of actually beating the North in the Civil War, either, but Abraham Lincoln had to hold off on the Emancipation Proclamation for months waiting for a moment when it wouldn't look like he was doing it out of desperation. Finally, in September 1862, the Battle of Antietam provided the moment and Lincoln made his historic announcement.

Hillary faces a similar problem. If she were to bow out now, in the wake of Pirro's high-powered announcement, Republican publicists, columnists, bloggers and talking heads would have a field day charging her with chickening out. So she must bide her time and hope the Pirro campaign doesn't start picking up momentum. As long as Ed Cox – or, frankly, practically any other respectable white male – was her principal opponent, she was free to pick her moment; now she's not.

And it gets trickier, too. Because by doing things to sink the Pirro campaign and thereby boost the claim of her own invincibility, she will only make her bow-out seem that much more odd. At least Lincoln didn't have to worry about that dynamic.

The question for Pirro and the Republicans (New York and national) is whether they can put together a string of successes and keep Pirro looking like a credible candidate for as long as possible. They'll need things like major fund-raising success, improvement in poll showings and interesting endorsements to keep the momentum going. Particularly impressive would be signals from the state's Conservative Party that Pirro might be acceptable to them, even though she is pro-choice and otherwise pretty much a moderate. The question is: how bad do New York conservatives want to beat HRC – not in 2006 for Senator, but in 2008 for President?

Republican success in building momentum for Pirro will be tough: first because her chances are still in the slim category, but also because they will be up against the Clinton strategic and tactical genius, which for all its distastefulness remains unparalleled. One shudders at the thought of comparing Bill Clinton with Robert E. Lee, but when it comes to modern political wars, it's not unreasonable.

But in an odd way, at least one of the most popular weapons in the Clinton arsenal may not work. Previous opponents have tended to be goody two-shoes types, against whom almost any real or invented demonization induced shock and awe among the voters. In Pirro's case, they'll have to work extra hard to come up with anything more damning than a philandering jailbird husband, which Pirro has already disclaimed, thereby eliminating its shock value.

For Republicans, of course, the very best outcome would be to force Hillary to run for reelection against her will, and then beat her. If Pirro can accomplish that, she ought to be awarded a medal.

Writer and veteran GOP media consultant Jay Bryant is a moderator for the Capitol Hill Workshop. His commentaries may also be heard on NPR's 'All Things Considered.'

[1Old Pro]

One thing for sure, Pirro thru a wrench into Hillary's Plan A. this will be an interesting race.

[beyond the sea]

Did you ever have your celebration last night, and will you be making an appearance on Letterman?

LOL. Yes I found some Corona's Sunday evening, but Letterman hasn't called yet. I guess I'll just have to try to win a few more awards in order to get him to call.

;-)

[ladyinred]

consider that it would give HRC (What perfect initials; it's so hard not to imagine the first two stand for "Her Royal…")

Gosh, I just can't think of anything the last initial could stand for! :-)

[rodguy911]

Spilled coffee, ruined another keyboard......