Posted on 08/21/2005 11:40:06 PM PDT by ex-Texan
Please shut you F---ing mouth, it is really ugly when I have to actually see/read this.
????????
Whatever. Move to Canada then I guess. That way you can depise and resent all the EEEEEEEEEEEEVIL American captialists all the more.
Please tone down the language.
"Speculation is capitalisms ugly dark side"
Speculation - the risking of capital in the hope of a profit - is capitalism. Without it we just have wage labor working for...who? Since there are no speculators in this utopia I guess they all work for the govt or for themselves on small holdings that never, god forbid, engage in speculation.
Bubbles are part of any market, and, if you don't get caught up in greed or fear, fairly easy to read and profit from.
Now that is an interesting post! Thank you. I just have one question -- do banks have that option without gov't approval/intervention?
The statistic that only 20% of Californians can afford a house with a fixed-rate mortage is misleading because a high percentage of higher-priced houses in California are sold to affluent buyers from other states. I know because I lived in San Diego county for 25 years and many of the home buyers moving in to San Diego county are affluent people from the midwest, the northwest, and the eastern US who are looking for warmer weather and more of an outdoor lifestyle. A lot of real estate in Southern California is sold to affluent retirees from out of state who want a warm climate in their "golden years." The Palm Springs area is full of retired snowbirds from the midwest.
The author makes another odd statement where he says: "If over 20 percent of homes purchased are investor properties, it appears that practically all new housing starts in America are accounted for by speculative buying." Right in mid-sentence the author switches from the term "investor properties" to "speculative buying." Well which is it? Is he trying to say that all real estate investment is speculation. It's not all speculative. It depends where you buy and how much you pay for the properties. As we've seen repeatedly in the last fifty years, people are going to get burned if they buy properties in poor locations and pay too much for them. But I'm not expecting any kind of a slaughter. Our economy depends so much on housing that the Fed cannot raise interest rates more than about another 1 point without causing a recession. So you're not going to see major interest rate increases that will cause a slaughter among housing investors.
What I referred to were things like the Kelo decision, ominous zoning laws that only developers and big business can navigate,
and corporate bailouts and giveaways that prop up businesses who should otherwise fail and go away.
All depends on how you define rural. In most cases a true rural real estate market is almost totally unlinked from an urban market. The buyers in urbania don't want to live next to a farm that produces real farm smells.
For example. My area is about 90-120 miles form the nearest big city (Indianapolis). When Indy prices for real estate go up the realtors here don't even take notice. Totally different markets. We have no bedroom communities for Indy down here. The Indy people don't want to live here and we don't want to live there.
Now if you're looking for a commuter distance to NY, Boston or ? then it's an entirely different story. But then you're also not looking to a true rural area either. The human pollution of the city spills over to the suburbs
(I look at homes in Indy or other big cities that cost 3 to 4 or more times what my bigger home cost and I see insane buyers)
I'm interested in leaving my urban rental and buying into a rural area, perhaps an acreage. Not looking to 'speculate' as I actually want to live there, but also want it to be a good investment. Trying to figure out if thats a bad move at this time.
If you want to live in the country then it's always a good move to buy acreage. Do not look at it as an investment as the odds are great that it will not appreciate considerably in a normal investment time frame. IMHO the land most worth living on is poor farm land anyway so agricultural gains won't be seen by that land. And the countryside is driven by agricultural markets. Buy the land to walk it, hunt it, and keep the neighbors a goodly distance away. Or to split among your children when they are old enough to build their homes.
We're in agreement here for sure. The above is simply government mandated welfare, central planning and a tyrannical abuse of power.
Houston, KC and Memphis are not rural areas. They are still big city urban. If you want rural areas look at towns less that 10,000 people (preferably less than 2000) and at least 90 minutes from any city.
Very rarely in the world of real estate will you find properties selling for even 40-50% more than they're really worth, let alone 14 times what they're worth. Some people who pay too much for real estate will get burned by speculation. But their losses will be much less than the massive losses taken by stock speculators in the tech bubble.
After the housing bubble bursts you will be able to pick this one up for 10 tin cans, 6 rubber band and a canadian nickel
Depends where Sharon PA is. If it's in the central part of the state away from the cities then the price will stay about the same since that is a fair price for that house. If it is near the cities (within commuting distance) the price will go up as losers in the city look for houses they can afford.
(BTW I paid that price for my house. Who says you have to spend hundreds of thousands to get something nice. After spending a few years and a few grand on the house it's now worth 150K or so and is incredibly beautiful (inside) and comfortable)
My wife and kids are my life. May God strike me dead before I have such a "mid-life" crisis. I'm ashamed of my sex and very sorry for you guys.
"Depends where Sharon PA is. If it's in the central part of the state away from the cities then the price will stay about the same since that is a fair price for that house. If it is near the cities (within commuting distance) the price will go up as losers in the city look for houses they can afford."
It is in rural W. Pa. You can find similiar homes in the greater Pittsburgh area for the same or less. House prices have appreciated very slowly in Western Pa because there is a net loss of population. There is no housing bubble there.
Online Bettors Find a New Love: Real Estate
http://www.nytimes.com/2005/08/22/technology/22consuming.html
Don't know if it's already been posted, but it fits in this thread as another sign of 'end times'.
Don't forget the gold chain medallions.
Now don't go getting all wussie on us. Just because a couple (few) men are A$$h013s doesn't make all men bad. Most of us are pretty good.
The above is simply government mandated welfare, central planning and a tyrannical abuse of power THAT HURT AVERAGE TAXPAYING CITIZENS IN MANY WAYS.
" Is there an expected move of capital from those frothy regions to the rural areas, kicking up those prices?"
I'm in northwestern NC, residential RE has "lagged" (3 - 5% appreciation) for years due to textile and furniture offshoring, the former primary industries here. We've had some positive news of late, Dell facility, FedEx hub coming in 2008, tremendous road projects, so it's not looking too bad for the near future.
I've been planning to build on land I purchased over two years ago, and have finally begun construction, so I'm very interested in keeping track of what's going on in residential construction locally. I've made a habit of doing a little "tour" of all the new construction in my area on Sunday mornings, weather permitting. Over the last several months, starting really about June, I've noticed that over half the traffic in the better new subdivisions (3,000+ sq ft, clubhouse, lakes, walking trails, etc. priced out at $350 - $800K), is out-of-state, tags from MD, NJ, PA, NY primarily, with the occasional CA tag (no idea why someone would drive that far, but apparently they do).
Average days on market, for both new and existing combined, is declining here, from 102 last year to 72 currently. There isn't a great deal of spec construction; most homes being built are sold prior to breaking ground in these "better" subdivisions. There are some spec homes that have taken up to a year to sell, but they're invariably at the upper end of the price range, or otherwise ill-considered (location, unpopular style or design elements, overpriced for sq ft and such).
So, I'd say that the "capital" is going to flow into more "reasonably" priced areas of the country before the whole party comes back to earth. Whether that's a good or a bad thing, well, I'm building now as I mentioned, so I view it as providing me with more of a cushion if price actually does take a hit at some point in the future. But, we've got a long way to go, before prices become as out of hand as they are in these former "hot" markets. There are very few properties over $200 sq ft. The few that are, are lakefront or historic mansions in the most desireable, old country club settings in town.
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