Posted on 08/20/2005 7:36:12 PM PDT by Lando Lincoln
In arrogant moments, I think of myself as one of the few people dissecting the plot in the Middle East. But there are days when I think I should hang up my marble slab. One of them occurred this week, when I read a column by David Frum (in Il Foglio, the Italian edition of the Wall Street Journal) explaining why Ariel Sharon decided to withdraw all Israeli settlements from Gaza -- even at the risk of fomenting something like civil war in Israel itself, and alienating key political allies. It was a move that could not be explained by American pressure, nor by Israeli domestic political pressure, nor by military necessity.
It utterly mystified me. I thought to myself, “Surely Sharon cannot be so stupid. He's never been this stupid before; he is genuinely wily. And he knows just what will happen. He knows the Arabs will not accept the withdrawal as a peace opening. They will take it as a desperate retreat. He will get no more credit from Europe and the international media than Israel ever gets for anything. Far from it: they will play up the ‘angry’ Palestinian reaction. And in Gaza itself, the Palestinian militias will stage a big, psychopathic victory parade -- the way they did when Ehud Barak voluntarily withdrew Israeli forces from Lebanon, only bigger -- and funded by the UNDP. Hamas and Fatah will step up the rocket attacks on Israel proper, and the Palestinian Authority will try to rekindle the Intifada. I can imagine Barak being so stupid, I can’t imagine this in Sharon.”
And what has been happening is exactly what I expected. As one Palestinian put it to a reporter of the Jerusalem Post (no less), speaking for most if not all: "Of course this is a victory for the blessed Intifada. Had it not been for the Kassam rockets and suicide bombings, Israel would never have thought of running away from our lands. The disengagement proves that the only way to liberate our lands is through the resistance, and not at the negotiating table."
So why, why, would a loyal Israeli leader, to say nothing of sane, not only allow all this to happen, but trigger the events? As I wrote above, Mr. Frum has nailed it.
Mr. Sharon, as everyone else who understands the background situation, is fully aware that, “Post-occupation Gaza will become a Mediterranean Somalia: an unstable failed state in which gangs compete for power and extremist Islam finds a sanctuary.”
But by allowing this to happen, he puts an end to the silly game, in which prevaricators in the West and across the Muslim world attribute every Middle Eastern disorder to Israel’s supposed refusal to allow a Palestinian state. He is now prepared to let them have that state, unconditionally, and let the world see why it should never have come into being.
Let the foreign ministries of Europe now panic about this triumph of Islamism on Mediterranean shores. Let the Egyptians now panic, as Israel removes the watch that protected Egypt as well as Israel from Islamist insurgency. Let Egypt and Jordan be compelled to send their own troops, respectively, into Gaza, and soon the West Bank. Let them take over Israel’s thankless task -- or suffer the consequences of it not being done. (The Egyptians have already sent into Gaza their first 750 troops to replace the IDF.)
For that matter, let the international community of professional apologists for Palestinian terrorism now drop their pretensions, and let the world know that what they actually demand is the annihilation of Israel.
Let Israel secure itself within the most defensible available frontiers, and complete the Wall it has been building.
In his Washington Post column, Charles Krauthammer spells out the security implications of this: the need for a mechanical system of retaliation for each Kassam rocket or other incursion that finds its way through or over that Wall.
This “Frum theory” is, I am now convinced, the only one that fits the facts. It cannot be welcome to the U.S. State Department, who, judging from Dr. Condoleezza Rice’s most recent “roadmap” bleatings, are either not in the loop, or pretending not to be.
Let me add, that the Israelis are, on this theory, returning to their much more successful survival strategy, pre-1967. It was, similarly, to seal the borders on the ground, and meet each successful Arab incursion with a brutal and unambiguous retaliation, on ten times the scale. This worked, wonderfully, in securing peace and quiet. Will it work again?
No particular beef with Israel. Don't like the South Koreans doing it either. Guess the new media needs to do a better job of "outing" the SK's, as I had not heard much about them to date on this score.
The extreme Left is way outside the mainstream in its "creeping anti-Semitism." Any Democrat with a hope of winning the top job or a Senator's seat has to be on the record in support of Israel, and there's plenty of us around to hold them to their words when the chips are down.
I maintain that the US is Israel's only hope. All the normal political/military/economic factors of great power relations weigh in against Israel, and India or China would dump them in a heartbeat in a way America would not do.
It is amazing, but we are throwing out the Constitutional limits on Government over terrorism, but we have the ability to wipe Mecca from the face of the earth with 15 minutes notice 24/7.
I kinda guess a lot of people are gaining a whole lot of power, and it is not the Islamics. Islam is a tool of the Globalists, that is working very well. Like someone said, those who will trade freedom for security, will have neither.
I am beginning to fear that we in the West (the Left in particular) have a subconscious death wish. This continuing self-flagellation has two results: wounding of the body and weakening of the spirit. Has the Left thought through the consequences of their doctrine?
The above is from your "About" page. It is quite eloquent; everyone here would benefit from reading it. You have an excellent grasp on what is going on over there. If only I could imprint your knowledge upon the rest of my countrymen!
Hey, our resident Palestinian apologist is back.
First, the Green Line is not a border. Never has been. It was merely an armistice line--a place where armies stopped fighting. Second, there are places where the Green Line and the fence coincide. Third, you are assuming that anything beyond the Green Line is somehow Palestinian territory. It never has been. The Green Line will never again be Israel's border. The fence is within Israel.
Recent statements by Secretary Rice calling for return to 1949 borders, a land corridor between Gaza and West Bank (cutting Israel in half), and a redivision of Jerusalem. Recent demands by Secretary Rice that Israel arm the P.A. while Mahmoud Abbas announces the start of a "larger jihad".
Define "turn against Israel".
Demanding concessions of Israel that would lead to Israel's destruction.
Israel already has a strong alliance with India. Te Bush administration wants to have control over Israeli arms sales to India and Singapore as well. So far the Israeli government has resisted.
I believe, if the U.S. turns on Israel, it will be an alliance with BOTH India and China. Both put together, though, are worth nowhere near as much as a strong alliance with the U.S.
I am not so sure you are right about the Democrats. The left wing of the party has been Arabist forever (think of Modale, Carter, or McGovern) but the mainstream leaders (Kerry, Biden, even Hillary Clinton) have strong pro-Israel voting records. Only time will tell.
True and true. I never said anything to the contrary.
"Third, you are assuming that anything beyond the Green Line is somehow Palestinian territory. It never has been."
Hah! But it's OK for you to assume it's Israeli territory to do with as she pleases.
It is disputed territory. It is occupied territory. It is subject to negotiation.
"The Green Line will never again be Israel's border."
No one, not even you, knows where the final border will be.
"The fence is within Israel."
Not even close.
I caught a interesting snippet on cnn, It was a young gazan palestinian girl being interviewed she was maybe 15 yrs old.. I figured the same crap would spew from her mouth .. Death to israel blah blah... Nope!!!!!!!!! They asked her what she thought of the withdrawal she said she didnt believe anything abu mazen said and doesnt believe life will get any better... They cant be trusted to give them a better life.. I was stunned
Doesn't say much for Churchill, now does it?
I mean, Israel traded land for peace with Egypt in 1978. Oh yeah, and did the same with Jordan in 1994.
Hmmmm. Were you even aware of this? Or did you think we weren't?
This is an excellent article. Thank you for posting.
"Somebody else must govern the restless and violent Arab-majority territories west of the Jordan River. Israel has suffered four decades of condemnation for doing the job. Sharon is now resigning the task to anybody else who would like to step in and take over the job. Nobody wants to. But Egypt and Jordan may soon realize that they have no choice. If there is a secret behind Sharon’s plan – that is it."
This is right on the mark. The proof is in the fact that before the Israelis have even completed the pullout, the UN and Red Cross fled the scene. Without Israel policing Gaza it is uninhabitable by civilized people.
Adding further to what Frum said, Gaza will become a safe haven for international terror (read AQ) that Pres Bush vowed would not be permitted. In other words Gaza will become the world's problem not just Israel's.
I believe this was PM Sharon's strategy.
Gaza is Hamas' home turf. In part Hamas appeals to Palestinians because they are less corrupt monetarily and have provided some social services. The teen is probably repeating Hamas criticism of the PA and its head Abu Mazen.
But Hamas is even worse than the PA on terror and destruction of Israel. Hamas is Islamist. The PA roots are communist.
People keep calling this a 'wall'. It was my understanding that this was a fence (a double fence?) except for a small section in Jerusalem.
Now they must just trade more land for peace with the "Palestinians". What are "Palestinians"?
And then it needs to trade land for peace with Syria and Lebanon.
Down town Tel Aviv can then be traded for peace with Saudi Arabia.
Maybe they Iranians will accept what's left, the Tel Aviv beach sand for their peace trade deal.
Yep. It will work, because, unfortunately, violence is the only language Islamicists understand.
It just doesn't fit in with your "land for peace never works" inflammatory propaganda, now does it?
Poor baby. And such a wonderful bumper sticker phrase, too.
If in your asylum you see an Israel at peace, for all the land it has given up, good for you.
I see an Israel significantly worse off, hated more, and in more a precarious situation for all its land for peace exchanges.
I see an Israel at peace with Egypt and Jordan. Should tell you something. If you would learn to listen.
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