Posted on 08/20/2005 7:36:12 PM PDT by Lando Lincoln
In arrogant moments, I think of myself as one of the few people dissecting the plot in the Middle East. But there are days when I think I should hang up my marble slab. One of them occurred this week, when I read a column by David Frum (in Il Foglio, the Italian edition of the Wall Street Journal) explaining why Ariel Sharon decided to withdraw all Israeli settlements from Gaza -- even at the risk of fomenting something like civil war in Israel itself, and alienating key political allies. It was a move that could not be explained by American pressure, nor by Israeli domestic political pressure, nor by military necessity.
It utterly mystified me. I thought to myself, “Surely Sharon cannot be so stupid. He's never been this stupid before; he is genuinely wily. And he knows just what will happen. He knows the Arabs will not accept the withdrawal as a peace opening. They will take it as a desperate retreat. He will get no more credit from Europe and the international media than Israel ever gets for anything. Far from it: they will play up the ‘angry’ Palestinian reaction. And in Gaza itself, the Palestinian militias will stage a big, psychopathic victory parade -- the way they did when Ehud Barak voluntarily withdrew Israeli forces from Lebanon, only bigger -- and funded by the UNDP. Hamas and Fatah will step up the rocket attacks on Israel proper, and the Palestinian Authority will try to rekindle the Intifada. I can imagine Barak being so stupid, I can’t imagine this in Sharon.”
And what has been happening is exactly what I expected. As one Palestinian put it to a reporter of the Jerusalem Post (no less), speaking for most if not all: "Of course this is a victory for the blessed Intifada. Had it not been for the Kassam rockets and suicide bombings, Israel would never have thought of running away from our lands. The disengagement proves that the only way to liberate our lands is through the resistance, and not at the negotiating table."
So why, why, would a loyal Israeli leader, to say nothing of sane, not only allow all this to happen, but trigger the events? As I wrote above, Mr. Frum has nailed it.
Mr. Sharon, as everyone else who understands the background situation, is fully aware that, “Post-occupation Gaza will become a Mediterranean Somalia: an unstable failed state in which gangs compete for power and extremist Islam finds a sanctuary.”
But by allowing this to happen, he puts an end to the silly game, in which prevaricators in the West and across the Muslim world attribute every Middle Eastern disorder to Israel’s supposed refusal to allow a Palestinian state. He is now prepared to let them have that state, unconditionally, and let the world see why it should never have come into being.
Let the foreign ministries of Europe now panic about this triumph of Islamism on Mediterranean shores. Let the Egyptians now panic, as Israel removes the watch that protected Egypt as well as Israel from Islamist insurgency. Let Egypt and Jordan be compelled to send their own troops, respectively, into Gaza, and soon the West Bank. Let them take over Israel’s thankless task -- or suffer the consequences of it not being done. (The Egyptians have already sent into Gaza their first 750 troops to replace the IDF.)
For that matter, let the international community of professional apologists for Palestinian terrorism now drop their pretensions, and let the world know that what they actually demand is the annihilation of Israel.
Let Israel secure itself within the most defensible available frontiers, and complete the Wall it has been building.
In his Washington Post column, Charles Krauthammer spells out the security implications of this: the need for a mechanical system of retaliation for each Kassam rocket or other incursion that finds its way through or over that Wall.
This “Frum theory” is, I am now convinced, the only one that fits the facts. It cannot be welcome to the U.S. State Department, who, judging from Dr. Condoleezza Rice’s most recent “roadmap” bleatings, are either not in the loop, or pretending not to be.
Let me add, that the Israelis are, on this theory, returning to their much more successful survival strategy, pre-1967. It was, similarly, to seal the borders on the ground, and meet each successful Arab incursion with a brutal and unambiguous retaliation, on ten times the scale. This worked, wonderfully, in securing peace and quiet. Will it work again?
Mortar Shells Launched From Northern Gaza
01:22 Aug 21, '05 / 16 Av 5765
(IsraelNN.com) Mortar shells launched from northern Palestinian Authority (PA) controlled Gaza landed in the greenhouse area of Kibbutz Netiv Ha’Asarah in the Negev.
Other mortar shell attacks were reported in the Nahal Oz area north of Gaza as well as near N’vei Dekalim in Gush Katif. There were no injuries in any of the attacks.
Yes, you're correct.
Although, the wall still does allow the Pali's to cross at check points several times a day. So transit between Gaza and the West Bank is still possible.
Also, Rice is objecting to segments of the wall that go into the so-called Palistine Territories. I'd love to see a map of where this wall is.
The road/route is the physical border. Technically, speaking, I don't think the Egyptians will be in Gaza, but literally on the border between Egypt and Gaza.
Look, stop nit-picking at this early stage....think about it....the exit move WILL draw Egypt and Jordan into the mix, force them to deal with the problem instead of standing aside...And the IDF can re-enter when it feels like it, do some work and leave without having to protect 7,000 settlers....
It would be interesting to see the Palesinians get their state. Walled off from Israel. How long until it sinks into a morass of famine, starvation and civil war, just like Somalia.
"Mortar Shells launched from Gaza"
Wow. Shocking.
(sarasm off)
The West saw what happened in Beirut, they saw or could have seen the Fatah land in Southern Lebanon from 1970 to 1982. Did that change their position vis-à-vis Israel? No, at least not for the better. The violence, kidnappings and murders in the PA territory has also been on display. Why would the West's reaction to Ghaza be any different?
Any Israeli incusion in Ghaza as a reponse to a mjaor terror attack or rocket barrage from the jihadis will be met by severe criticism from the Euroweenies, State Departement etc.
Looks like wall sales are up in Israel.
Yes
Besides, it's much better to have all Israelis within easily defensable borders in case something.....ahem.....happens in Syria.
I hear you. Actually, everywhere but Israel. That Green line always appears west of the wall, don't it?
bump
Totaly foolish article. To retreat to defensible borders that are only 9 miles wide? And if America has its way contigous with between the Mountains of Jerusalem and Gaza? That is cutting Israel in half, not building a fence.
Last I heard a ladder beats a chain link fence, that is if you mind just climbing the stupid fence. Last thing I also heard is that chain link fences do not stop bullets either.
Nope, this Gaza thing is going to blow up and cause the death of thousands of Jews and everyone knows it. Now what do you think of a leader that goes against the vote of the people, seizes houses from people that were built on land bought and paid for before there even was an Israel, and then causes thousands of his own citizens to die for another useless media statement?
I call it criminal.
Let Sharon give up his hundreds of acres ranch or ride around in city busses instead of his armored limos, then and only then will the man have put his mouth where his money is. As it is now, he is tossings others lives and homes and property down the drain like it is not costing him anything.
Because it doesn;t.
Hey, lets not nick pick, the IDF can all go to Borneo and not have to protect 6 million Jews at all. Within a month the blood bath will be over and 1.5 BILLION Arabs will be dancing in the streets.
Then it's Americas turn.
Frankly, if the IDF would fight back instead of playing police man, 7000 citizens would not have been mortared every night during this "cease fire".
Cease fire my ass, what will get the IDF off of its ass if artillery shelling wont? What, mortars don't count if the media wont report it?
What about the position that the move out of Gaza will "call the PLO bluff", show their true nature without having the settlers around to blame... Also, now the settlements in the W. Bank will stay and Jerusalem will not change either...?
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