Here are the Dow, the Nasdaq, and the S&P for the last five years:
Source: Yahoo! Finance
Imagine that...
They are not reachable and I don't see any reason to bother.
The stock market has not moved up that much. The reason why 1/3 of the population thinks it is a recession is because of their decline in buying power. Mainly because they have not gotten the wage increase that others have and because of the increasingly high gas prices.
Probably because 1/3 of Americans are actually economically literate. They understand the overwhelming trade and current account deficits. They realize that the massive amounts of credit creation by the Fed (to boost the housing market) is doing great damage to America's international competitiveness.
Here are the Dow, the Nasdaq, and the S&P for the last five years:
Source: Yahoo! Finance
The mainstream media will do anything to try and make the President look bad.
As usual, the agenda of the MSM is about its business of deceiving the public to defeat the current administration. Furthermore, the activity in the stock market, which is been quite positive, portends economic prosperity at least for the next 6 months.
One could say that in 1933 only one fourth of Americans were out to lunch. The difference is that people today are further apart one from another. So the situation is peachy if you are not directly affected. This is demonstrated by the several posts on FR by people who gaze into their navel for inspiration.
Some data from the 1920s (TIMELINES OF THE GREAT DEPRESSION:
Organized labor declines throughout the 1920s. The United Mine Workers Union have seen its membership fall from 500,000 in 1920 to 75,000 in 1928. The American Federation of Labor fell from 5.1 million in 1920 to 3.4 million in 1929.
By 1929, the richest 1 percent owned 40 percent of the nation's wealth. The bottom 93 percent had experienced a 4 percent drop in real disposable per-capita income between 1923 and 1929.
Over the decade of 1920s, about 1,200 mergers swalled up more than 6,000 previously independent companies; by 1929, only 200 corporations controled over half of all American industry.
Individual worker productivity rised an astonishing 43 percent from 1919 to 1929. But the rewards were being funneled to the top: the number of people reporting half-million dollar incomes grew from 156 to 1,489 between 1920 and 1929, a phenomenal rise compared to other decades. But that was still less than 1 percent of all income-earners.
In 1922 The conservative Supreme Court stroke down federal child labor legislation.
In 1923 President Warren Harding dies in office; his administration was easily one of the most corrupt in American history. Calvin Coolidge, who is squeaky clean by comparison, becomes president. Coolidge is no less committed to laissez-faire and a non-interventionist government. He announces to the American people: "The business of America is business." Supreme Court nullifies minimum wage for women in District of Columbia.
In 1924 the stock market begins its spectacular rise. Bears little relation to the rest of the economy.
In 1925 The top tax rate is lowered to 25 percent - the lowest top rate in the eight decades since World War I. Supreme Court rules that trade organizations do not violate anti-trust laws as long as some competition survives.
In 1928 Between May 1928 and September 1929, the average prices of stocks rises 40 percent. Trading mushroomed from 2-3 million shares per day to over 5 million.
In 1929 Herbert Hoover becomes President. Hoover is a staunch individualist but not as committed to laissez-faire ideology as Coolidge.
For 1933, unemployment rises to 23.6 percent.
Two crucial difference - US economy is now very dependent on foreign production and we have huge flood of illegal immigrants.
The stock market is lagging because people are putting all their cash into real estate. That is fine if you can take $ 350,000 cash out of your 401(k) to pay for a home outright. Some people are paying cash for homes in other states to prepare for retirement. Great, if you can do it.
In the meantime, speculators are buying homes they will never live in with plans to flip them at huge profits. Beware of homes being flipped in your area. You might be caught with your pants down later. Read more about real estate bubble? 'Nuff said.
Can anyone provide substantiation for the claim that wages are up?
Let's guess. Maybe for 1/3 of Americans who don't read the WSJ it's not booming?
And as usual on these threads the critics who say things could be better offer thoughtful and sourced opinions while those who take umbrage at any criticism on the jobs front offer thoughtless "clever" put downs.
What categories of jobs are being created according to BLS figures? Temporary agencies, food services and lodging, construction, government, health care. Yes, I know. Jobs is jobs.
What do labor studies by Northeastern University, Pew Hispanic Center, CIS say about those job categories? They say that recent immigrants are getting huge numbers (most?) of them (excluding government). I think that it is fair to say that these are the government-subsidized "cheap" labor folks which are highly prized by business.
Current recovery lags the classic recovery model in wage increases and jobs creation -- it's the impact of globalization and the economy is still adjusting. If that's Bush bashing then I am a Bush basher and proud of it.
Among good news indicators IMO is the higher-paying jobs available on dice.com. At the lowest point a couple of years ago the nationwide total was around 25,000 now it's getting close to 75,000. Yes, I know there are duplicate listings. I also know that during the dot con (yes, con) bubble it was close to 150,000.
Bottom line, it ain't the Great Depression and the general public ain't stupid.
BTTT.
Or it could be that 1/3 of Americans lack critical thinking and reasoning skills, and are unable to read even the simplest economic indicators for themselves, thereby forcing themselves to rely on an "explainer."
And maybe I could have spent some of my "raise" money and rewards for my improved efficiencies and growth...but, it looks like I gave it all to the oil companies at the pump, instead. Oh well. Maybe next decade.
Great article.
It was the Clinton supporting "media bulls" who helped usher in the 1990s economic upswing.
The NYSE and NASDAQ is mostly psychological driven (remember 1998-2000 stock market bubble) bolstered slightly with earnings reports (which of course can also be fudged).
Our economy has been on a big upswing since around 2002-2003, but one would never know it by reading the daily broadsheet newspapers (Phila INquirer, Chicago crapper, etc).