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Russia and China meld muscle for war games
Christian Science Monitor ^ | August 17, 2005 | Fred Weir

Posted on 08/16/2005 3:22:17 PM PDT by Tailgunner Joe

MOSCOW – Russia and China begin joint war games Thursday, for the first time adding military muscle to a burgeoning partnership that some experts see sweeping away old strategic verities, from the Taiwan Strait to central Asia and beyond.

The week-long maneuvers off the Pacific coast are widely viewed as Moscow lending a mail-gloved hand to China's efforts to warn the United States away from involvement in any future crisis over Taiwan. But preparations to deal with potential unrest in Central Asia may also figure, some say.

Last month, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Hu Jintao pledged to work together to prepare their armed forces "to deal with new challenges and threats," listed as extremism, terrorism, and separatism.

Further suggesting the war games may be part of a larger agenda is the presence of defense ministers from the six-member Shanghai Cooperation Organization Russia, China, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Kazakhstan. Some analysts believe Moscow and Beijing hope to transform the SCO, hitherto a Central Asian talking shop, into a NATO-style security alliance to keep order in their increasingly troubled neighborhood. "Shared security concerns in the far East and Central Asia are driving Russia and China into much closer security cooperation," says Sergei Lusyanin, an expert with the official Institute of International Relations, which trains Russian diplomats. "It's not surprising to see them flexing a bit of joint military muscle for the first time, and I think we can expect much more of that in future."

The war games, dubbed "Peace Mission 2005," will see combined Russian and Chinese forces deploy to reestablish order in an imaginary country "on the territory where riots stemming from ethnic discord have taken place and confrontation between different forces occurred," according to Russian Gen. Vladimir Moltenskoy. Highlights will include amphibious troop landings and paratroop drops on China's Shandong Peninsula, accompanied by antisubmarine maneuvers and cruise-missile launches from high-flying Russian Tu-95 "Bear" bombers.

Alexander Goltz, an independent military analyst, says a key Russian goal is to show the Tu-95 and supersonic Tu-22M bombers off to Beijing, which purchased $2-billion in Russian military equipment last year. Russian armsmakers have already sold Su-30 fighter jets, Kilo-class submarines, A-300 antiaircraft systems, and other Soviet-era weapons, but have little new to offer the tech-hungry Chinese. Though both bomber types are at least four decades old, acquiring them would give Beijing a strategic edge it still lacks. "This is to some extent a marketing ploy, to expand our sales rather than support China's Taiwan policies," says Mr. Goltz. "There is little doubt that in a real Taiwan crisis, Russia would step aside."

It's been a long road for Russia and China, who fought a brief but savage border war in the 1960s and had virtually no relations until the collapse of the Soviet Union 14 years ago. Russia today is China's main supplier of modern arms, nuclear technology, and energy. Trade between the two soared to nearly $20 billion last year and is projected to hit $60 billion by 2010.

Along with leaders of the six SCO states, officials from countries the SCO is courting as possible members - such as India, Mongolia, Pakistan, and Iran - will be present for the joint exercises. "The dangerous situation in Central Asia is driving Russia and China to overcome their mutual suspicions and work together," says Vitaly Naumkin, director of Moscow's independent Center for Strategic and Political Studies. "The SCO is becoming the main vehicle for that strategic cooperation."

A lightning revolution overthrew Kyrgyz President Askar Akayev in March. Uzbek President Islam Karimov suppressed a revolt by alleged Islamic extremists in May, killing up to 1,000 people. The upheavals deeply alarmed Moscow and Beijing, both of which have substantial Muslim minorities that are feared vulnerable to Islamist and separatist ideologies.

In central Asia too, the rising Sino-Russian compact poses a challenge to American influence. An SCO summit in early July demanded the US "set a timetable" for removing its military bases in the region, at Manas in Kyrgyzstan and Karshi-Khanabad in Uzbekistan, which were established with Kremlin approval in the wake of 9/11. "When the US invaded Afghanistan to crush Al Qaeda and the Taliban, Russia and China saw that as desirable," says Mr. Lusyanin. "But now it looks as if the Americans plan to stay forever. The thinking in Moscow and Beijing is that the US has now become part of the problem in central Asia because it's encouraging revolutions down there."

Last month Mr. Karimov gave the US until year's end to vacate Karshi-Khanabad. But in a whirlwind visit to the region, Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld persuaded Kyrgyz leaders to let the US keep its 1,000 troops and scores of aircraft at Manas indefinitely. Washington pays about $50 million annually - about 5 percent of Kyrgyzstan's GDP - for use of the base.

Meanwhile, Russia has announced it will double the size of its own Kyrgyz air base at Kant, open a new intelligence-gathering center in Tajikistan, and hold joint war games with the Uzbek military this fall. Kyrgyz Vice Premier Adakhan Madumarov was recently quoted in a Russian newspaper as saying establishment of a Chinese military base in his country has been discussed "at the highest level."

"We're seeing a strategic shift which, if it continues, could change the whole picture in Eurasia," says Lusyanin. "Russia and China have many things in common. It's not just oil and arms; increasingly it's a shared concept of what the regional and global order should look like."


TOPICS: Extended News; Foreign Affairs; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: china; chinarussia; russia; sco

1 posted on 08/16/2005 3:22:17 PM PDT by Tailgunner Joe
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To: Tailgunner Joe

The biggest geopolitical mistake of the last 20 years was our not bringing Russia into a close alliance. I find this deepening relationship between Russia and China extremely, extremely disturbing.


2 posted on 08/16/2005 3:28:42 PM PDT by bluetone006 (Peace - or I guess war if given no other option)
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To: Tailgunner Joe
A link on Drudge said that they were also going to test fire ICBM's during this.
http://en.rian.ru/russia/20050815/41158923.html
That doesn't seem to fit the description of "Peace Mission 2005"!

The war games, dubbed "Peace Mission 2005," will see combined Russian and Chinese forces deploy to reestablish order in an imaginary country "on the territory where riots stemming from ethnic discord have taken place and confrontation between different forces occurred," according to Russian Gen. Vladimir Moltenskoy.
3 posted on 08/16/2005 3:47:22 PM PDT by Righty_McRight
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To: bluetone006

"The biggest geopolitical mistake of the last 20 years was our not bringing Russia into a close alliance"

Shake hands with the Kremlin and you have to count your fingers. The Russians have a 300 year culture of abject violence.

And if anyone doubts, name one ally of theirs!

Impossible - they kill them.


4 posted on 08/16/2005 4:08:42 PM PDT by spanalot
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To: bluetone006

But we have India. Lately they have been growing closer to us.


5 posted on 08/16/2005 4:10:15 PM PDT by Paul_Denton (Get the U.N. out of the U.S. and U.S. out of the U.N.!)
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To: Paul_Denton

True, But the real question is Will India be on our side for every decision our president takes?


6 posted on 08/16/2005 4:38:14 PM PDT by Petey139
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Comment #7 Removed by Moderator

Comment #8 Removed by Moderator

To: Lincarhamus

"It was Russian ships after-all that protected our Western Coasts during that war"

What in heavens name did they protect? And from whom?
I don't recall any such thing and can you provide any documentation? Were there any battles in California?


9 posted on 08/16/2005 5:23:48 PM PDT by spanalot
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To: Lincarhamus

if its not a problem , can you also expound on your post below?



"Finally, laizze faire economics, which is corporatism, is the precursor to alienation and ruination of a nations ability to produce and survive. This leads to the other wing of British and foreign designed economics, namely Marx's Communism.

Corporatism and Communism, right and left wings of the same bird of ruination. The alternative is written in our past, and as a great sage to some, a savior to many said the "Truth will Set You Free"."



Are you realy suggesting that market economies are comparable to communism in leading to "ruination"

I see you are a recent arrival to FR - it should be quite an adventure.


10 posted on 08/16/2005 5:35:18 PM PDT by spanalot
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To: Tailgunner Joe

Meld all they want to. Russia cannot go to bed at nite without worrying about the real intentions of the gorilla living next door.


11 posted on 08/16/2005 5:37:33 PM PDT by cynicom
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To: Lincarhamus

Very informative. I'd never heard of any of this, but then again I am a Kiwi. I shall to read up on it.


14 posted on 08/16/2005 9:07:48 PM PDT by Androcles (All your typos are belong to us)
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To: Lincarhamus

What kind of ally sits in non hostile ports for 3 years, never firing a shot while its friend is over run several miles from its nations capital?

I would think lots of coutries paid lip service to Lincoln - but that does not make them allies.


15 posted on 08/17/2005 4:09:14 AM PDT by spanalot
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Comment #16 Removed by Moderator

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