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Is China building a carrier?
Jane's Defence ^ | 12 August 2005 | Andrew Koch

Posted on 08/14/2005 6:00:25 PM PDT by Jeff Head

Is China building a carrier?

By Yihong Chang JDW Correspondent &
Andrew Koch JDW Bureau Chief
Hong Kong & Washington, DC

Chinese shipyard workers have been repairing a badly damaged ex-Russian aircraft carrier and have repainted it with the country's military markings, raising the question once again of whether China is pursuing longer-term plans to field its first carrier.

In the latest developments, images show that workers at the Chinese Dalian Shipyard have repainted the ex-Russian Kuznetsov-class aircraft carrier Varyag with the markings and colour scheme of the People's Liberation Army (PLA) Navy (PLAN). Additional new photographs show that other work, the specifics of which could not be determined, appears to be continuing and that the condition of the vessel is being improved.

JDW believes that PLAN technicians have also conducted thorough studies of the basic structure of the Varyag during the past few years to obtain a comprehensive understanding of the carrier's structural design. Former PLAN commander General Liu Huaqing stated in his memoirs that China had purchased blueprints for the carrier - a fact that Russian sources confirmed to JDW. Moreover, Gen Huaqing added: "The competent departments of the defence industry employed Russian aircraft carrier designers to come to China and give lectures."

Still, China's ultimate intentions for the Varyag remain unclear. One possibility is that Beijing intends to eventually have it enter into some level of service. A military strategist from a Chinese military university has commented publicly that the Varyag "would be China's first aircraft carrier".


Yaryag undergoing work through 2004 in the Dalian Shipyards


Varyag after movement to another shipyard in 2005

(Excerpt) Read more at janes.com ...


TOPICS: Extended News; Foreign Affairs; Government; News/Current Events; War on Terror
KEYWORDS: aircraftcarriers; armsbuildup; armsrace; chinathreat; chinesebuildup; chinesecarrier; chinesemilitary; dragonsfuryseries; freeperjeffhead; jeffhead; navy; planaircraftcarrier; planbuildup; plancarrier; redchinathreat; varyag; worldnavies; worldwariii; worldwidecarriers; wwiii
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To: warchild9
I can only imagine a scene similar to the failed AAMRAAM attack against the alien ship in Independence Day: they fire all these expensive missles, the Aegis system pops them in mid-air, and communist jaws drop and they all go "Oh Oh."

I wouldn't be so cocky...
161 posted on 08/16/2005 5:03:51 PM PDT by Bulwark
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To: Paul Ross
The planes on them are aging. Including the fact that there IS NO replacement for F-14. The "super" version of the F-18 just ISN'T. The Viking S-3 is also tired. Vernon Clarke forecast our Attack sub fleet could drop to 28 boats out of the current 55 in under 19 years if we don't get it in gear. Our ASW capability is dropping like a stone.

I agree with you on most of your points, but the "super" version of the F18 was at least *something*. Most of the 80s was a black hole for naval aviation, and the Super Hornet was the only new blood naval aviation has gotten recently. We really need to get the naval version of the JSF into production sooner rather than later.
162 posted on 08/16/2005 5:05:45 PM PDT by Bulwark
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To: Bulwark; Paul Ross
We need the ALRAAM, developed, produced, and fitted to the Super Hornet to replace and improve upon the Phoenix...that is one thing in AAW that is missing.

We also need something to replace the heavy hitter A-6s, something like the aborted A-12. Then we need the S-3s modernized and outfitted again for ASW, 10 to each carrier, along with a general improvement of outer and inner ring ASW defense for the CBG's. Just my opinion.

163 posted on 08/16/2005 6:14:04 PM PDT by Jeff Head (www.dragonsfuryseries.com)
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To: Bulwark; Paul Ross
We need the ALRAAM, developed, produced, and fitted to the Super Hornet to replace and improve upon the Phoenix...that is one thing in AAW that is missing.

We also need something to replace the heavy hitter A-6s, something like the aborted A-12. Then we need the S-3s modernized and outfitted again for ASW, 10 to each carrier, along with a general improvement of outer and inner ring ASW defense for the CBG's. Just my opinion.

164 posted on 08/16/2005 6:14:05 PM PDT by Jeff Head (www.dragonsfuryseries.com)
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To: ponder life
If they were a free, democratic/republic society that recognized unalienable rights ...I would not argue with you. The same arguements you are making could have been made with equal passion about Nazi Germany and IMperial Japan before WWII.

We've been there and done that and we don't want to do it again if it can be helped. Now is the time to keep it fromhappening.

165 posted on 08/16/2005 6:15:34 PM PDT by Jeff Head (www.dragonsfuryseries.com)
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To: Bulwark

The missle scenario is kind of cool, though.


166 posted on 08/16/2005 6:25:41 PM PDT by warchild9
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To: grey_whiskers; Jeff Head
Asymetric warfare: China like islamists and perhaps in concert can use massive swarming to befuddle, such as an integrated cyber attack to freeze non-hardened networks (fin., comm. and media), common street/transit terror with strategic targets (refineries/pipelines/bridges/dams), and decapitations - university/research brain trusts, business management stars, and enough politicians families so that survivors won't be leaders. All this while we are shadowing their Formosa Fleet, ships which won't engage while cruising around the new "China Lake" and Carribean ports of call to sign 50 year contracts for all of Venezuela's oil/fuel output.

A nuke scud from a suicide tramp steamer or NK "accidental" launch could go "heroic save" airburst at 100-400 KM to EMP tens of millions of us as a lesson without killing an American.

IMHO, our nearly universal refusal to admit that we are in a state of total war with no rules begs our mortal enemies to be both creative and merciless, to slaughter innocents and cripple our national productivity for a period of years or even a generation during which China can make their ellusive "Great Leap Forward" without their fingerprints at the scenes of the crimes risking assured destruction.

Soon, the ChiComs shall have more college graduates than we have citizens. The PLA can have more War College postgraduates than we can have draftees. Given the Clintons' treasons, the ChiComs have most of our weapons systems. No wonder the Bill and Hillary Clinton created their own Politburo; I expect them both to be overseas when the time comes as a heads up would only be professional courtesy, a gratuity like the W-88 was.

167 posted on 08/16/2005 8:09:22 PM PDT by SevenDaysInMay (Federal judges and justices serve for periods of good behavior, not life. Article III sec. 1)
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To: Jeff Head
If they were a free, democratic/republic society that recognized unalienable rights ...I would not argue with you. The same arguements you are making could have been made with equal passion about Nazi Germany and IMperial Japan before WWII. We've been there and done that and we don't want to do it again if it can be helped. Now is the time to keep it from happening.

Well, I can certainly understand people's concerns. However, one unquestionable prelude to a country that is getting ready for all out war, is very obvious. They will gear their entire economy towards war production and war effort. That's what Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan did. They directed their entire economy towards war in the decade prior to WWII, whereas the United States had to build during the war.

And doesn't that make common sense? If a country really had an intention to be agressive, wouldn't they do everything in their power that they had the upper hand. Waging war is serious business and if a country starts one, wouldn't they want to build everything that they possibly can to win or to not at least suffer a humiliating defeat, aka, Nazi Germani and Imperial Japan?

There's is alot written about China's military build up. I've read dollars quoted and how big it is, the number of this equipment or that equipment being built. But no matter how you slice it or what number people put on it, it is appropriate for a country the size of China to have a large military. The main point is that it is not pushing to put all its egg in the military basket, the way the former USSR during the cold war or Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan did before WWII.

168 posted on 08/17/2005 11:44:24 AM PDT by ponder life
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To: ponder life
...and no matter which way you dice it...the bigger and more modern the military of the communist Chinese becomes, because of the vaery nature of their ideology, the bigger threat it is to the free people of the region and the world.
169 posted on 08/17/2005 2:00:19 PM PDT by Jeff Head (www.dragonsfuryseries.com)
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To: ponder life
So they are building a defense force able to protect the shipping lanes that come in and out of China.

FROM PRECISELY WHOM are they protecting this commerce from????

And meanwhile China also is deploying bases all around the U.S., in Cuba, and Xlinton lets them grab both ends of our Panama Canal, building the Bahamas Super-Port, and another in Jamaica, and let's not forget Venezuela and Brazil...and planning on a super-canal through Thailand to avoid the Malacca Strait...

Why do I get the sense you are one of these Xlinton-apologists? "Move along, nothing to see here..."

170 posted on 08/18/2005 9:39:12 AM PDT by Paul Ross (Definition of strict constructionist: someone who DOESN'T hallucinate when reading the Constitution)
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To: ponder life
The main point is that it is not pushing to put all its egg in the military basket, the way the former USSR during the cold war or Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan did before WWII.

And how does THAT prove your point? All it shows is that Deng Xiaoping was more astute than Stalin through Breznev. This temporary civilian industrial emphasis was by the long-term design...the expediency of a phoney "peaceful rise."

But that is changing now that the industrial "peaceful rise" is all but accomplished...we can just begin to see the signs of communist impatience as their goals come within reach... But then, suddenly (from their perspective), they see signs the West is having doubts about Chinese sincerity. The live frog in the pot on the stove is making energetic kicks and preparing to leap out before being fully cooked...

The Chinese communists are obviously mulling whether to dispense with continuing the charade, and debate whether the West has been milked of all the technology and capital that it will peacefully permit. Note the increasing strident communist displeasure the Politboro expresses about the EU's refusal to sell arms and dual-use technology. And the U.S. "interference" with Israel's illegal re-selling of U.S. technology to China. The wheels are turning. Time for the gloves to come off? The Dragon ready to bare its fangs and claws? Soon, perhaps, soon. Patience. That is the path of deception...Sung Tsu is integral to all their moves. Keep the enemy off-guard.

Oh, you should also be aware that much of the Chinese civilian economy is "dual-use" by their design.

171 posted on 08/18/2005 10:11:28 AM PDT by Paul Ross (Definition of strict constructionist: someone who DOESN'T hallucinate when reading the Constitution)
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To: Paul Ross
FROM PRECISELY WHOM are they protecting this commerce from???

Well, I guess if there's no threat to shipping, there isn't a need for any military in the Pacific or the Atlantic.

And meanwhile China also is deploying bases all around the U.S., in Cuba, and Xlinton lets them grab both ends of our Panama Canal, building the Bahamas Super-Port, and another in Jamaica, and let's not forget Venezuela and Brazil...and planning on a super-canal through Thailand to avoid the Malacca Strait...

Are you are suggesting that China is building full scale military base in those areas? I really doubt that.

Why do I get the sense you are one of these Xlinton-apologists? "Move along, nothing to see here..."

Nope, not. I did vote for Bush Sr. and Bush Jr. Bush Senior, who was our Republican President (88-92), didn't have a problem with China's rise. In fact, that was one of Clinton's criticism of him, was that he was soft on China.

And how does THAT prove your point? All it shows is that Deng Xiaoping was more astute than Stalin through Breznev. This temporary civilian industrial emphasis was by the long-term design...the expediency of a phoney "peaceful rise."

Interesting that you see that it doesn't prove my point, but then you turn around and make a statement that implies that all the civilian activity is a big giant plan towards a military build up. Really, don't you see how alarmist your statement really is? It's difficult for me to believe that all this civilian activity is ultimately geared towards a military build up.

But that is changing now that the industrial "peaceful rise" is all but accomplished...we can just begin to see the signs of communist impatience as their goals come within reach... But then, suddenly (from their perspective), they see signs the West is having doubts about Chinese sincerity. The live frog in the pot on the stove is making energetic kicks and preparing to leap out before being fully cooked...

Once again, don't you think you're being an alarmist to a point of being theatrical and dramatic in your comments?

The Chinese communists are obviously mulling whether to dispense with continuing the charade, and debate whether the West has been milked of all the technology and capital that it will peacefully permit. Note the increasing strident communist displeasure the Politboro expresses about the EU's refusal to sell arms and dual-use technology. And the U.S. "interference" with Israel's illegal re-selling of U.S. technology to China. The wheels are turning. Time for the gloves to come off? The Dragon ready to bare its fangs and claws? Soon, perhaps, soon. Patience. That is the path of deception...Sung Tsu is integral to all their moves. Keep the enemy off-guard.

Oh, you should also be aware that much of the Chinese civilian economy is "dual-use" by their design.

Well, just about everything is dual use. Textile industry can make uniforms, auto into tanks, freighter ships into military ships, civilian aircraft into military, video/electronics/computers into an integration system, etc.

172 posted on 08/18/2005 11:24:36 AM PDT by ponder life
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To: Paul Ross
Correction to font:

Oh, you should also be aware that much of the Chinese civilian economy is "dual-use" by their design.

Well, just about everything is dual use. Textile industry can make uniforms, auto into tanks, freighter ships into military ships, civilian aircraft into military, video/electronics/computers into an integration system, etc.

173 posted on 08/18/2005 11:26:26 AM PDT by ponder life
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To: Jeff Head
...and no matter which way you dice it...the bigger and more modern the military of the communist Chinese becomes, because of the vaery nature of their ideology, the bigger threat it is to the free people of the region and the world.

If China does become a democracy (which I believe it will someday), then I look forward to everyone accepting their rise.

174 posted on 08/18/2005 11:29:54 AM PDT by ponder life
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To: samadams2000
If China invades..I stop buying my socks from Target.

My socks are from Target and they're made in the U.S.. Now the socks from Wally-world are probably made in China...

175 posted on 08/18/2005 11:58:47 AM PDT by Smittie
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To: ponder life; JohnHuang2; Alamo-Girl; tallhappy; buffyt
It's difficult for me to believe that all this civilian activity is ultimately geared towards a military build up.

Yes it is difficult for you.

Not, however, because you are either "non-alarmist", well-rounded, knowledgeable or intellectually balanced or emotionally stable. Although you probably imagine those to be your traits. A similar mindset thought that Winston Churchill was an alarmist, and "war monger."

The eternal shame heaped upon the appeasers is not eternal enough apparently, so quixotic and ephemeral is the modern appeasers ability to remember accurately or apply the lessons of history faithfully. They won't see reality clearly...by choice. Just as liberalism is a mental disorder, so is one of its primary traits...appeasement.

BTW, that is one of the things the Chinese and Arabs both pride themselves on...is a superior grasp of those lessons of history over every other culture (so they imagine anyways). And they especially prize their duplicity against the enemy. And they truly despise weakness, which is how they perceive us intellectually and morally when we fail to perceive their enmity. And who is to gain say them today, with our Jay Walk Generation, who can't even point to the U.S. on the globe, let alone any other nations?

Those who don't see what's coming have scales over their eyes. Most likely of a purpose. It could be spiritual hubris, and/or self-imagined wisdom or greatness. I should also note that you seem to be tilting against the DOD itself. Is it alarmist? With a raft full of Panda-Hugging Chinese apologists...they still are beginning to voice the very same concerns we have been making ever since China successfully stole all of our nuclear secrets...

Do you remember the PLA's hutzpah then? Apparently filled with self-confidence in their ultimate victory, they brazenly TOLD US they had done so. Perhaps knowing that their kept President Xlinton, and the China Import lobby would soon manage to make everyone in the U.S. forget what was really happening...and continuing to happen...and make the Cox Report of no effect. "Time heals all wounds" especially in an amnesiac society too self-absorbed.

They count on us being blinded, mesmerized by a weak understanding of China, and of the World in general...too proud to accept that we are in fact being mortally challenged. That we are on the receiving end of an undeclared war, which only temporarily remains covert and non-shooting. To appeasers, Winston Churchill ALWAYS appeared to be a foolish alarmist. "The Better View" was always condescending and disparaging towards the TRUTH, and they engaged in vitriolic personal condemnation of him. Have you ever once in your life wondered why that was so?

Do you think we are any brighter, smarter, or better educated than Stanley Baldwin or Neville Chamberlain in their day? In fact, as a society, and the officials in our government...are demonstrably less so. So because we are currently riding high...we imagine in vainglory that we always will be. Hubris.

I Corinthians 1:27 " But God hath chosen the foolish things of the world to confound the wise; and God hath chosen the weak things of the world to confound the things which are mighty..."

176 posted on 08/19/2005 9:06:05 AM PDT by Paul Ross (Definition of strict constructionist: someone who DOESN'T hallucinate when reading the Constitution)
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To: ponder life
If China does become a democracy (which I believe it will someday), then I look forward to everyone accepting their rise.

It doesn't just happen from trade. Wake up, smell the coffee. It didn't just happen with the Soviet Union. We practiced Regime Change Reagan-Style back then. As Cheney used to say before he muzzled himself..."Big Time." We have been far too timid with the Communists. We need to openly confront and challenge them on their illegitimacy. Failure to do so buoys them up...and concedes to them moral authority to their people...or at the very least a sense of hopelessness to do anything about it. That we are afraid also of their Communist autocracy, and dare do nothing to inspire or help their people rebel. We need the Great Communicator AGAIN.

We don't have to remain impotent here. Let's not have the lyrics from Neil Young's song be our national epitaph...


NEIL YOUNG LYRICS

"It Might Have Been"

The saddest words
Of tongue or pen
Are these four words
It might have been

We had big dreams
We made big plans
How could they slip
Right through our hands

Instead of tearing
Our own hands to pieces
Why don't we try
To right what we've done wrong

It's not too late
To set things straight
Let's never say
It might have been

Instead of tearing
Our own hands to pieces
Why don't we try
To right what we've done wrong

It's not too late
To set things straight
Let's never say
It might have been


[ www.azlyrics.com ]



177 posted on 08/19/2005 9:22:50 AM PDT by Paul Ross (Definition of strict constructionist: someone who DOESN'T hallucinate when reading the Constitution)
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To: ponder life
Well, just about everything is dual use. Textile industry can make uniforms, auto into tanks, freighter ships into military ships, civilian aircraft into military, video/ electronics/computers into an integration system, etc.

Yes. Precisely.

Hence the transfusion of advanced technology into these production capabilities is transferrable then to their productivity and capability in manufacturing the military applications as well.

Check this site out:

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The phenomenal economic growth witnessed in China since Deng Xiaoping first declared China's "A Open Door" policy in 1978 has led many to predict China's certain emergence as an economic superpower in the early 21st Century. Indeed, China has followed a structured path toward gradual market reform of its still largely state-owned industrial sector, which has been transfused with increasing amounts of foreign capital and technology.

There have been numerous reports over the last several years, however, of US companies being "forced" to transfer technology to China in exchange for access to this enormous market. The purpose of his study is to assess the extent to which US commercial technology is being, in effect, "coerced" from US companies engaged in normal business practices and joint ventures in China in exchange for access to China's market. The cumulative effect these transfers may have on China's efforts to modernize its economy as well as its industrial and military base is also examined. Finally, this study addresses the impact of US technology transfers to China on the issues of long-term US global competitiveness and broad economic and national security interests.

178 posted on 08/19/2005 9:44:24 AM PDT by Paul Ross (Definition of strict constructionist: someone who DOESN'T hallucinate when reading the Constitution)
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To: Paul Ross
It doesn't just happen from trade. Wake up, smell the coffee. It didn't just happen with the Soviet Union. We practiced Regime Change Reagan-Style back then. As Cheney used to say before he muzzled himself..."Big Time." We have been far too timid with the Communists. We need to openly confront and challenge them on their illegitimacy. Failure to do so buoys them up...and concedes to them moral authority to their people...or at the very least a sense of hopelessness to do anything about it. That we are afraid also of their Communist autocracy, and dare do nothing to inspire or help their people rebel. We need the Great Communicator AGAIN.

...um...I don't have a problem opposing communism. Communism is the doctrine of central planning and that all business enterpirses be owned by the state. Many external forces are pushing China to become more free market, which is what is happening. Reagan's method worked for the USSR and WTO and free trade is working for China in ending communism. In 10-15 years, France may have more industries owned by the state than China. Maybe sooner. So I think we both agree on ending communism in China. We just don't agree on the method. Communism is slowly eroding in China, just look at the growing number of businesses owned by private individuals.

179 posted on 08/19/2005 11:40:31 AM PDT by ponder life
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To: ponder life
Communism is the doctrine of central planning and that all business enterpirses be owned by the state.

Definitionally inadequate description. State CONTROL is sufficient (i.e., think NAZI) under Chinese principle's of "scientific socialism". Check out their constitution. Explains it all.

180 posted on 08/19/2005 2:47:32 PM PDT by Paul Ross (Definition of strict constructionist: someone who DOESN'T hallucinate when reading the Constitution)
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