Do Try This at Home: Assess Your Area's Real Estate Bubble

New York Times ^ | August 13, 2005 | DAMON DARLIN

[Grim]

That's because the main driver of today's market is consumer psychology. Home prices go up as long as people expect them to go up.

In case you were wondering, this is 100% union certified, FDA approved, genuine HORSE BOOGERS.

The New York Times...doing our best to stay depressed...Since 1885"

[atlanta67]

""and that the effects of creative financing and real estate mania have affected markets where a bubble isn't visible.""


I agree

[Chickensoup]

Bump

[Aquamarine]

The real estate market will be cooling down in all areas except exurbs (extra urban - a region or district that lies outside a city and usually beyond its suburbs.) Vacation resort areas such as parts of Florida and the southwestern states should continue to have a strong market.

[RightWhale]

Some for sale signs went up the beginning of the summer. This was mentioned here at the time. All those signs are still up and some more have appeared. There are also a few moving sales, something we have not seen much of in the past decade. The asking prices are probably not bargains. But, the longer the houses go unsold, the closer we are to the impending closure of Eielson AFB, and that is on top of the completion of several major construction projects and renovations from state and federal funds. Maybe the present owners can continue to hold these properties indefinitely, that is the game played in this region. After two or three decades, though, retirement and old age set in and the heirs may not be willing to hold on to a piece of permafrost with a decaying shack on it. The bubble never arrived here even though there are a fair number of new palaces that appeared in the last twenty years in the hills and on the banks of the sloughs.

[Oldexpat]

The Bubble does exist nation wide, on the average, because the large expensive areas have gone up much more than reasonable. So the bubble exits in a statistical sense nation wide, but the impact, when it breaks, will be more on the high valued areas. Those are where rents are completely out of line with purchase costs.
The non-bubble areas will re much more stable price wise.
The economic impact will still be significant. The high income, high value major markets going down will dry up a lot of high end consumer spending, and purchases of second homes from refis.

[Oldexpat]

The Bubble does exist nation wide, on the average, because the large expensive areas have gone up much more than reasonable. So the bubble exits in a statistical sense nation wide, but the impact, when it breaks, will be more on the high valued areas. Those are where rents are completely out of line with purchase costs.
The non-bubble areas will re much more stable price wise.
The economic impact will still be significant. The high income, high value major markets going down will dry up a lot of high end consumer spending, and purchases of second homes from refis.

[Texas_Conservative2]

The bubble is going to burst ... BUT it is only gonna affect democratic areas.

[Caipirabob]

We're a couple of thousand short of the half-million mark in my neighborhood just last week. If the prices don't drop, we're in great territory for the equity build-up. Seeing how we plan to stay for at least another 10 years, I suspect we'll be doing pretty nicely.

[HostileTerritory]

Phoenix, Orange County, Florida's Gulf Coast, exurban New Jersey, exurban Northern Virginia... these are not Democrat areas.

[palmer]

We're a couple of thousand short of the half-million mark in my neighborhood just last week. If the prices don't drop, we're in great territory for the equity build-up. Seeing how we plan to stay for at least another 10 years, I suspect we'll be doing pretty nicely.

So was it a bubble after all?