NordP
Posted on 08/08/2005 6:32:08 PM PDT by anisozet
Democrat has all the buzz in 50th district race
UNION-TRIBUNE
August 8, 2005
Francine Busby is feeling on fire.
Thanks to Duke's hari-kari, his effervescent foe has morphed into the It Girl.
Why, Busby's so hot she could change her name to Buzz-by.
"This is going to be the hottest race on the West Coast," the Cardiff candidate pledges with a sunny, know-it-all grin. "This is going to be the most competitively fought congressional seat this side of the Rockies. It's not a blow-away for Republicans in this district anymore."
Two months ago, you'd have said Busby was blowing smoke with this cocksure prediction.
Today, given what's transpired, a visitor to her two-story house overlooking the San Elijo Lagoon takes notes and nods sagaciously.
Lordy be, the 50th – a presumably "safe" Republican district that stretches from a part of La Jolla and Clairemont north to Escondido and San Marcos, as well as along the coast from Del Mar to Carlsbad – appears to be up for grabs by either party.
If legions of Republican candidates eat their enemy's young in a Grand Guignol of a primary, Busby could very well eat the GOP's lunch – and punch her ticket to Washington, D.C.
A contested election. What a concept.
After running a spirited, but soundly losing, campaign last year against Rep. Randy "Duke" Cunningham, R-Rancho Santa Fe, Busby was gearing up for yet another round when Cunningham was exposed as the world's shrewdest dealer in real estate and yachts – but a fatally flawed politician.
In a flashbulb, Busby went from wallflower also-ran to glamour girl.
However, her makeover was marred by doubts about her ultimate worthiness to fight for the miraculously available title.
Speculation swirled that Democratic kingmakers might dump Busby, a Cardiff school trustee, and draft someone with more heft, someone like former state Sen. Dede Alpert, a battle-tested Democratic legislator who made North County history in 1990 by defeating an incumbent (but scandal-marred) assemblywoman, Sonny Mojonnier.
By now, those nagging doubts have been dispelled, Busby says. "We've nailed it down."
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has given its blessing, promising full support when the going gets tough, and expensive. Emily's List, a network that backs pro-choice Democratic women, is "keen to see me succeed," Busby says.
Besides, Busby adds, Alpert is "absolutely, unequivocally not interested" in ruining the hopes of a candidate who simply adores her.
"Dede has been my mentor and my idol," Busby gushes. "The first time I ever considered running for office was when I met her and I thought, 'That's what I can do.' I met her in a back yard in Solana Beach and I came home and told my husband, 'I can do what she does. I'm like her.' She's the first person I met who I really thought, 'That's where I need to go.' Of course, it was just a pipe dream then."
Whatever Busby was smoking that afternoon proved prophetic.
Like Alpert, Busby is parlaying her volunteerism and service on a school board to capitalize on a moment of weakness in the GOP's North County hegemony.
Before moving to North County in the late '80s, Busby worked as the manager of Disney group tours. In those days, she was a registered Republican. She defected over disgust at the vilification of President Clinton by "mean-spirited" Republican hard-liners, she says.
If Busby pulls off an upset in the congressional election – either in a special election (if Cunningham resigns in the next few months) or the '06 election – she'll have turned the 50th into a liberal's Magic Kingdom.
In San Diego County, the congressional delegation would be dominated, 3-2, by Democrats.
More than a dozen Republicans are floating their names as contenders. "I'm in until I'm out" – it's a phrase you hear to describe the coy maneuvers behind the scenes.
"Every day I hear another name," Busby says.
No matter how the GOP psychodrama plays out, Busby estimates she'll have to raise $2 million to compete.
Helping her raise and spend the money will be Brandon Hall, the former director of Forward Colorado, a 527 political group that supported Democrats in the '04 Colorado elections. Hall, who is in his 30s, recently moved to San Diego to manage Busby's campaign.
In the winter, long before Cunningham cratered, two college whiz kids – Brennan Bilberry of Harvard and Tim Fernholz of Georgetown – contacted Busby and signed on as true believers in her candidacy in a district they believe is changing its political stripes.
Bilberry is the communications director, and Fernholz the finance director. Neither has celebrated his 20th birthday.
"Their age belies their wisdom and savvy," says Busby, a suburban Everywoman, the salt of the suburbs, the mother next door who runs the soccer league, serves on the library board, and in her spare time pushes for a school bond.
Look at C-Span and you won't see many like her in the nation's House.
Given the demise of an aristocrat like Duke, that might be her strongest suit.
Logan Jenkins can be reached at (760) 737-7555 or by e-mail at logan.jenkins@uniontrib.com.
Alot of Republicans tend to ignore districts like this (or the Schmidt scare) until the last minute which isnt the best thing in the world
plus it looks like it is going to be a wild primary on our side...something like 15 candidates...
This was only about a 54% Bush district I believe, so the possibility that it could turn competitive is definitely there, especially with California listing steadily toward the left.
Another opportunity for Democrats to realize their dreams of deferred success.
NordP
Perhaps Dornan will move down for this one. Do any of these Repblican wannabes have time in uniform?
I seem to recall a similar story from Ohio a couple of weeks ago. Anybody remember how that one came out? Will the RATS also call this loss a victory?
This isn't a special election, and the odds are low this district will go Dem in the general. Bush carried it by 11%. If it does, that would suggest that the GOP will lose control of the House.
One thing is certain. If the California Republican Party can screw it up, you can bet they will.
Bush carried this district by about 10.5% in 2000, and 11.5% in 2004. It isn't trending anywhere.
A democrat in the 50th. Not a chance. It won't happen. The article is just pure speculation and wishful thinking. The area is as pro-military as it gets. It will remain that way on the right side of the aisle.
"The article is just pure speculation and wishful thinking. The area is as pro-military as it gets. It will remain that way on the right side of the aisle."
While this article is repeating the DNC talking points, we shouldn't be complacent about any district that Bush carried 55/45. There are plenty of districts (CT-2nd, for example) with a Republican Congressman that were carried comfortably by John Kerry.
What happened in Ohio's 2nd district highlighted how complacency can benefit the Democrats. There are millions of loony antiwar Democrats who would walk across broken glass to vote. Likewise, the unions will line up their "voters" and shove them into the ballot booth, if necessary.
With this right behind the Ohio election it seems a pattern, perhaps part of Democrat strategy of a buildup of similar hype to certain elections in order to cry stolen election again in 2006. That in turn would be a buildup for 2008.
Well, will, im hardly working for anyone. Since you aren't familiar with the San Diego News media, I will tell you that Logan Jenkins is considered the most respected columnist in the county. Whether you agree with his ideas or not (I tend to not agree with alot of them) they have wide implications in San Diego.
As for me, I am a Republican Del Mar resident who happens to not be too happy with the choices on either side right now. And as for previous posts, I'm not sure whether you mean my correction of a mistake someone made by calling a pro-abortion candidate pro-life or my general concern about the Republican party ignoring this district. I don't have an agneda other than making sure we don't have a Phil Crane-esque suprise here. Ignorance isnt bliss in politics.
Bob Dornan = Horse's a-s.
Exactly. This district should be voting for Republicans but when Republicans ignore districts like this as 'safe seats' voters arent too inclined to vote for that party. I wonder why...
Perhaps Dornan is a horses ass, however he'd be a guy who could show up for a visit to the troops as a congressman who'd actually served: nowadays unusual...most in either were too good to serve.
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