Today's analyst is an Associate Research Fellow at the Institute
of Defence and Strategic Studies, Singapore. She is currently
involved in research on maritime terrorism and piracy under the
Institute's Maritime Security Program. She is a co-editor and
contributing author for the volume "The Best of Times, the Worst
of Times. Maritime Security in the Asia Pacific." She was
previously an analyst at the Center for the Study of Terrorism
and Political Violence, St. Andrews University, Scotland.
The Malacca Straits and the Threat of Maritime Terrorism
Drafted By: Catherine Zara Raymond
http://www.pinr.com On August 1, 2005, the foreign ministers of the three littoral
states of Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore met to discuss
maritime safety and security in the Malacca Straits. They
concluded their talks with a stronger commitment to addressing
comprehensively the issue of maritime security, including the
threats of piracy, armed robbery and terrorism. The meeting
marked the recognition by the littoral states that much remains
to be done in terms of improving the safety and security of the
Malacca Straits.
The situation became all the more urgent following the recent
decision by Lloyd's Market Association's Joint War Committee to
declare the Malacca Straits an area that is in jeopardy of "war,
strikes, terrorism and related perils." The decision to add the
Straits of Malacca to the Committee's list of high-risk areas was
taken following recommendations by the private defense
consultants, Aegis Defence Services, who are said to have
carried out risk assessments on the area. Others on the list are
countries such as Iraq, Somalia and Lebanon. Although the
Committee has a purely advisory role, the result of this
declaration could be dramatically higher insurance costs for the
many thousands of ships that transit the Straits on an annual
basis.
The Aegis report stated that due to the fact that there had been
an intensification of the weaponry and techniques used by the
pirates in the Straits, they are now largely indistinguishable from
terrorists. In addition, it stated that the Straits are a target for
terrorism. The report cited a statement by al-Qaeda leader
Osama bin Laden in which he spoke about hitting enemy
countries through their economies. It also highlighted Jemaah
Islamiyah's (J.I.) past interest in the traffic passing through the
Straits. [See: "The Threat of Al-Qaeda and the Islamic
Revolutionary Movement"]
The Straits of Malacca: A High-Risk Zone?
A terrorist attack in this economically strategic waterway would
certainly have the potential to cause large-scale economic
impact, not just regionally but on a global scale. The waterway is
transited by about 60,000 ships each year, and approximately
one third of the world's trade and half of the world's oil pass
through the Straits on their way to countries such as China and
Japan.
However, both the littoral states and ship owners around the
world have expressed their concern over whether the decision by
the Joint War Committee is justified. In a joint statement, the
foreign ministers of the littoral states urged the Committee to
"review its risk assessment accordingly." The ministers
expressed their regret that the decision was taken without their
consultation and failed to take into account their existing efforts
to deal with the threats to safety and security in the Straits. The
Federation of A.S.E.A.N. Shipowners' Association declared that
the decision was "misguided."
While the reaction by the littoral states and ship owners may to
some extent be warranted given the lack of evidence pointing to
an immediate threat from maritime terrorism, completely ruling
out the possibility of an attack taking place would be an incorrect
assessment. A terrorist attack in the Straits may have a low
probability of occurring but the impact of such an attack could be
very high.
It is important to point out that the threat of international
terrorism still casts its shadow over the region. Despite a series
of arrests, the J.I. network remains resilient and is expected to
strike again. The suicide bombing at the Australian Embassy in
Jakarta on September 9, 2004, which killed some 11 people and
injured more than 180, is certainly proof of this.
As mentioned in the Aegis report, J.I. has planned attacks
against naval vessels in the region. Fears of a J.I. attack were
renewed after U.S. intelligence passed on warnings about a plot
to hijack a vessel in the region's waterways. The warnings,
issued in September 2004, stated that activists from J.I. had
been discussing plans to seize a vessel with the assistance of
local pirates.
Other terrorist attacks attributed to J.I. are: the Christmas Eve
bombings of churches in Indonesia in 2000, which killed some 19
people, the October 12, 2002 Bali suicide attack that killed
around 200 people, mostly Western tourists including
approximately 88 Australians, in a nightclub, and the Marriott
Hotel bombing in Jakarta that killed around 12 people on August
5, 2003.
The Philippines continues to be a haven for terrorist activity, with
evidence of terrorist training camps on the Philippine island of
Mindanao and growing cooperation between J.I. and the two
Philippine Muslim insurgency groups -- the Moro Islamic
Liberation Front (M.I.L.F.) and the Abu Sayyaf Group (A.S.G.).
Both M.I.L.F. and A.S.G. have carried out previous maritime
terrorist attacks. One such attack by M.I.L.F. took place on a
busy seaport in Davao City, in the Philippines, in April 2003.
Around seventeen people were killed in the attack. The group
also carried out attacks on Philippine shipping, mainly placing
bombs on domestic inter-island ferries being used to transport
members of the Armed Forces of the Philippines and Christians
to and from Mindanao. On February 27, 2004, A.S.G. carried out
a suicide bombing on the M/V Superferry 14 shortly after it left
Manila Bay, killing more than 100 people. This attack resulted in
the greatest number of deaths since the Bali bombing,
It is clear from the militant groups operating in the region that
there is an interest in attacking maritime targets. Whether or not
they have the capability to conduct a spectacular attack on
shipping in the Straits remains to be seen.
A Terrorism-Piracy Nexus?
One of the specific criticisms leveled at the Aegis report was its
failure to distinguish clearly between piracy and terrorism. While
piracy in the Straits of Malacca has been taking place on a
regular basis for the last decade, there is little or no evidence to
suggest that pirates are forming links with international or
regional terrorist groups, such as al-Qaeda or J.I., in order to
carry out a devastating attack on a maritime target. The only
suspected link between piracy and terrorism in the Malacca
Straits is the employment of pirate tactics by the separatist
group known as the Free Aceh Movement (G.A.M.).
Since the 1970s, G.A.M. has been fighting a separatist war
against the Indonesian government with the aim of creating an
independent Islamic kingdom in the province of Aceh. The group
is said to finance its terrorist activities partly through sea piracy
and smuggling. These are not, strictly speaking, acts of maritime
terrorism. It has been well documented that terrorist groups
have resorted to criminal activities in order to generate funds for
their political campaigns. However, these criminal acts are not in
themselves acts of terrorism. Therefore, the threat of maritime
piracy must not be labeled as a terrorism risk. [See: "Examining
the Threats to Indonesia's National Interests"]
Conclusion
While it is important to distinguish between the pirate attacks
taking place in the Straits and acts of terrorism, what these
pirate attacks demonstrate is that the vessels transiting the
Straits are highly vulnerable to a breach in their security. Pirates
regularly hijack tankers in order to steal the cargo or kidnap
crewmembers. If terrorists were able to take over a tanker
carrying highly hazardous chemical cargo, the implications could
be disastrous. The unpredictability of terrorism makes it hard to
carry out accurate risk assessments. However, as can be seen
from the evidence presented above, the threat from maritime
terrorism is a clear possibility in the Straits of Malacca.
Report Drafted By:
Catherine Zara Raymond