Like I said, if Cheney doesn't run, there's a demonRAT in the Whitehouse, and GOP loses seats in both houses. Given that scenario - which I unfortunately believe, the country's economy takes a deep dive (the media and the demonRATs lay it at the feet of Bush and his policies) and 2010's mid terms give both houses back to the demonRATs.
So, while you're looking for a 'friendly wager' - I'm squirling away what little I have to weather the storms that will come to be if Cheney/Rice choose not to save the GOP.