What's with the swoon starting in 2000? I thought it was supposed to be a dot com bubble, not a manufacturing bubble.
Posted on 07/26/2005 11:37:26 AM PDT by Willie Green
""NAFTA has killed our manufacturing economy. If people weren't so apathetical and uninformed, they would certainly demand its repeal.""
Manufacturing in the USA has been in decline since it peaked in 1978. Believe it or not every country in the world is seeing declines in manufacturing jobs.
The idea that Mexico killed US manufacturing is ridiculous
Actually, China's net surplus last year was small. About $30 billion.
Let's talk a look at these claims, shall we?
1. USSR - For all intents and purposes, we didn't have trade deficits with the USSR because there was no trade... ( except a little wheat, now and again)
Now there - that part was easy, wasn't it?
2. Japan. [The U.S.]...didn't have trade deficits with Japan...
Uhm, When?
Say, 20 or 25 years ago, maybe? "Historically, Japan has had trade deficits with raw material suppliers and surpluses with other countries. In the 1980s, however, balances with all trading partners shifted somewhat in Japan's favor. Its surplus in trade with developed countries rose from US$12 billion in 1980 to US$67 billion by 1988, before declining to under US$51 billion in 1990.
http://www.photius.com/countries/japan/economy/japan_economy_trade_and_investment~411.html
Sir, I can only say, that I believe you to be more passionate than well-informed.
What's with the swoon starting in 2000? I thought it was supposed to be a dot com bubble, not a manufacturing bubble.
I'm unfamiliar with that company. Sorry I can't answer your question.
Quote: Then get in your car and drive away from your dying town.
Not easily done especially of you are older or taking care of sick parents.
Also hard to sell your house if everyone else is trying to sell theirs also because they are in the same boat.
When I was younger Imoved around the country without abandon. It would be mnucha harder for me to do so nowdays.
When the bubble burst companies didn't need new telecom equipment.Also, all the pre-Millenium computer buying meant less demand after 2000 started.
Right, Y2K had a whole lot to do with the boom and bust. Why didn't Greenspan know that? He inverted the yield curve anyway. Such are the perils of a managed economy.
It was his fault!! He pumped too much $$$ into the system because he feared Y2K computer issues would cripple bank computers, ATMs etc and then when nothing happened, he pulled the excess money out too quickly.
How else did money get into the system? Did it show up in the funds rate? We were still in a strong dollar policy, which isn't associated with easy money. My guess is a lot of overseas money came here as part of the "safe haven" effect.
The Fed creates money by buying Treasuries from banks. The banks then have to lend out this new money. It probably wouldn't show up in the funds rate, although they could have dropped the funds rate too. I don't recall. Safe haven could have played a part too, but most was Greenspan.
The funds rate is a target. Buying and selling securities (all Treasuries in practice) with money center banks is how the Fed tries to influence the funds market to attain the target, which is rarely exact but usually very close. The Fed has a list of the actual daily funds rate somewhere on its site. I looked at that list some time ago and saw nothing unusual, so I have no other explanation than a flood of overseas money, but I'm always open to new explanations that don't start and end with "it was a dot-bomb scam" from people who watch too much TV.
Yes it is.
Buying and selling securities (all Treasuries in practice) with money center banks is how the Fed tries to influence the funds market to attain the target, which is rarely exact but usually very close.
Actually, they use repos and reverse repos to influence the Fed Funds rate. To increase the money supply they buy treasuries and keep them in their portfolio. They increase the balance the selling bank has on deposit at the Fed. The banks earn no interest on these deposits and so have an incentive to quickly take that money and loan it out. If the reserve requirement is 10% and the Fed buys $1 million in treasuries, that will increase the money supply a maximum of $10 million dollars.
So, before the Millennium the Fed bought a lot more treasuries than it normally would have and boosted the money supply. After Jan 1st, they sold some of those treasuries and reduced the money supply. They created too much and helped feed the tech bubble and then shrank the money supply too quickly and helped cause the pop.
Right, and when the banks lend and borrow that money according to their reserve requirement, they are doing it in the Fed's fund market. Thus when the Fed does their trading in repurchase agreements it will affect the funds rate. The funds rate stayed on target. If the Fed adjusted the money supply, it must have done it some other way.
No, no, no. You're getting these mixed up. When the banks get this "new money" from the Fed they lend it out anyway they want. Fed Funds are overnight money. At the end of the day, banks see if they need a few bucks to meet their reserve requirement or if they have a few bucks extra. If so, they use Fed Funds. But if a bank gets $1 million in cash they'd like to make more than the 3.25% Fed funds rate. They'd prefer to make a home equity loan at 7% or make a prime business loan at 6.25%
Thus when the Fed does their trading in repurchase agreements it will affect the funds rate. The funds rate stayed on target. If the Fed adjusted the money supply, it must have done it some other way.
The Fed plays with the money supply by buying and selling treasuries. The Fed plays with the funds rate by doing overnight repos. Totally separate functions.
Open market operations--purchases and sales of U.S. Treasury and federal agency securities--are the Federal Reserve's principal tool for implementing monetary policy. The short-term objective for open market operations is specified by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). This objective can be a desired quantity of reserves or a desired price (the federal funds rate). The federal funds rate is the interest rate at which depository institutions lend balances at the Federal Reserve to other depository institutions overnight.Link.The Federal Reserve's objective for open market operations has varied over the years. During the 1980s, the focus gradually shifted toward attaining a specified level of the federal funds rate, a process that was largely complete by the end of the decade. Beginning in 1994, the FOMC began announcing changes in its policy stance, and in 1995 it began to explicitly state its target level for the federal funds rate. Since February 2000, the statement issued by the FOMC shortly after each of its meetings usually has included the Committee's assessment of the risks to the attainment of its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth.
Here's how it works. The Federal Reserve requires commercial banks and other financial institutions to hold as reserves a fraction of the deposits they accept. Banks hold these reserves either as cash in their vaults or as deposits at Federal Reserve banks. In turn, the Federal Reserve controls reserves by lending money to banks and changing the "Federal Reserve discount rate" on these loans and by "open-market operations." The Federal Reserve uses open-market operations to either increase or decrease reserves. To increase reserves, the Federal Reserve buys U.S. Treasury securities by writing a check drawn on itself. The seller of the Treasury security deposits the check in a bank, increasing the seller's deposit. The bank, in turn, deposits the Federal Reserve check at its district Federal Reserve bank, thus increasing its reserves. The opposite sequence occurs when the Federal Reserve sells Treasury securities: the purchaser's deposits fall and, in turn, the bank's reserves fall.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.