"So there's a prediction that you can fact check me on over the next 5 months. I'll be right while you are still in wide-eyed panic."
I'm not the one panicking in denial.
Iran has already produced po-210, in case you didn't know. That isn't the hard part. The argument as to whether Iran or North Korea will be first to detonate a nuclear weapon is just another straw man to help you try to hide the FACT that you can't support your position. I haven't got a dog in that fight.
You have your head in the sand, trying to pretend that the barbarians are too stupid to copy our 60 year old technology.
"You have your head in the sand, trying to pretend that the barbarians are too stupid to copy our 60 year old technology."
The barbarians have fewer resources and fewer educated minds than does North Korea and Iran.
North Korea and Iran will therefore have workable nukes *BEFORE* Al Qaeda.
Neither North Korea nor Iran has reached the point where they are comfortable testing a weapon, for whatever technical or geopolitical weapons...
...And considering the U.S. nuclear response in retaliation for an attempted nuclear attack (ditto for Israel and Russia), you can rest well assured that North Korea and Iran will each perform at least one nuclear test prior to an attack.
No atomic test = no atomic attack