Hurricane Emily emerging into the Western Gulf of Mexico.
Heads up SE TX Freepers!
Posted on 07/18/2005 5:59:11 AM PDT by NautiNurse
Hurricanes Emily and Dennis are the strongest July storms in recorded history for the Atlantic hurricane basin...
Hurricane Emily resources--the links are self-updating for handy reference:
NHC Hurricane Public Advisory Updates Currently published every three hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, 5P, etc. ET.
NHC Hurricane Discussion Updates Published every 6 hours 5A, 11A, 5P, 11P ET
Storm Floater IR Loop Little boxes at top of image: lat/lon, and Trop Fcst Pts--click 'em.
GOM Visible Loop (Only works during daylight hours)
Visible Storm Floater Sat Daylight Hours--Both loop and latest image
Western Gulf of Mexico Bouy Data
Tampico Mexico Radar Very Slow Load
Emily Forecast Track Archive Loop Great for reviewing the NHC 3 day and 5 day historic track positions
Global Satellite Imagery Amazing view of the world (Broadband)
Water Vapor SatelliteAnother colorful loop for broadband
Central Florida Hurricane Center offers a variety of info
| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure |
Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 (weak) |
75 - 95 mph 65 - 82 kts 33 - 42 m/s |
> 28.94 in. Hg > 980.0 mb > 97.7 kPa |
4.0 - 5.0 ft. 1.2 - 1.5 m |
minimal damage to vegetation |
| 2 (moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts 43 - 49 m/s |
28.50 - 28.93 in. Hg 965.1 - 979.7 mb 96.2 - 97.7 kPa |
6.0 - 8.0 ft. 1.8 - 2.4 m |
moderate damage to houses |
| 3 (strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 113 kts 50 - 58 m/s |
27.91 - 28.49 in. Hg 945.1 - 964.8 mb 96.2 - 97.7 kPa |
9.0 - 12.0 ft. 2.7 - 3.7 m |
extensive damage to small buildings |
| 4 (very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 114 - 135 kts 59 - 69 m/s |
27.17 - 27.90 in. Hg 920.1 - 944.8 mb 91.7 - 94.2 kPa |
13.0 - 18.0 ft. 3.9 - 5.5 m |
extreme structural damage |
| 5 (devastating) |
> 155 mph > 135 kts > 70 m/s |
< 27.17 in Hg < 920.1 mb < 91.7 kPa |
> 18.0 ft > 5.5 m |
catastrophic building failures possible |
Hurricane Emily emerging into the Western Gulf of Mexico.
Heads up SE TX Freepers!
A little ahead of schedule it seems.
Here we go again..........................
Cool. New thread. And I'm relatively early on this one... neat.
ping
?
The innercore is well intact...its now offshore but over rather cooled upwelled water of 81-82 degrees...later today it will be moving over 84-85 water and a large area of 86-88+ degree water before it hits land...the light wind shear has diminished....I'm afraid this will explode in strength as the day goes on....
Thank you for managing these hurricane threads. (Funny, I typed "threats". Hopefully Emily won't be to the U.S.)
the eyewall of Hurricane Emily passed over Cozumel a few hours ago.
The Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft overflew the island
during the eyewall passage...at 05z...and reported peak flight
level winds of 124 kt. At 0322z...they reported 141 kt. Landfall
occurred near 0630z just north of Tulum. The reconnaissance data
suggest that Emily likely made landfall as a category four
hurricane with maximum winds near 115 kt. No observations have yet
been received from the landfall area.
Emily will be spending roughly 9 hours over the Yucatan...but is
likely to maintain hurricane strength during this passage. A weak
upper-level low over the Bay of Campeche may be contributing some
southwesterly shear over Emily...but global models suggest that
this upper low will move west-southwestward and weaken within 12-24
hours. This would result in an upper-tropospheric environment
conducive to strengthening. Therefore...re-intensification is
likely once the center moves back over the waters of the southern
Gulf of Mexico. Just how much Emily restrengthens is partly
dependent on the extent that the inner core is disrupted after
passing over northern Yucatan.
The initial motion...295/15...is about the same as before...and the
official track forecast is also basically unchanged. NOAA and Air
Force Reserve aircraft conducted synoptic surveillance missions in
the Gulf and northwestern Caribbean last night. Dropsonde data from
these missions show a mid-level ridge solidly in place across the
northern Gulf. Global models indicate that this ridge could weaken
a little over the next 12-18 hours with the passage of a
mid-latitude short wave to the north. The upper low in the Bay of
Campeche could also result in a slight rightward deflection of the
track. However...both of these influences should diminish in
another 24 hours or so and the track should then Bend back toward
the left. The GFS...which has performed well with this storm...is
on the southern side of the guidance envelope...while the NOGAPS is
on the northern egde. The official forecast is in good agreement
with the FSU superensemble...which in fact has outperformed both
the NOGAPS and GFS with this cyclone. None of the Standard guidance
shows a landfall in south Texas at this time. Nevertheless...given
that the average 48 hour track error is about 140 nmi...such a
landfall is entirely possible.
1-minute data from NOAA buoy 42056 were helpful in adjusting the 34
kt wind radii in the southeast quadrant.
Forecaster Franklin
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 18/0900z 20.6n 88.0w 95 kt
12hr VT 18/1800z 21.6n 90.1w 75 kt
24hr VT 19/0600z 22.9n 92.8w 85 kt
36hr VT 19/1800z 23.8n 95.2w 95 kt
48hr VT 20/0600z 24.4n 97.7w 100 kt...inland
72hr VT 21/0600z 25.0n 103.0w 25 kt...dissipating
96hr VT 22/0600z...dissipated
Miss Emily was in a big hurry to get back over warm water.
Thank-You for being such a wonderful Thread keeper:)
Sorry Gabz I could not resist.....:)
"?"
Emily is a bit ahead of schedule, my reply to her entering the Gulf.
any indications of how much disruption the land mass caused?
if landfall was at 6:30Z looks it was off the coast at 12:40z or so...so only 6-7 hrs over land..it looks like it came out a bit north..and therefore the more skinny part of land
Jim Williams at Hurricane City went live last night, and is streaming the shortwave Hurricane Watch Net at HurricaneCity.com now.
Thank you--would be greatly appreciated.
Batten down the hatches.
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