But unlike you, I believe the probability of it being real are better than 50%.
Po-210 has a half-life of 140 days. That's not an opinion, that's science.
If a suitcase nuke goes 140 days without any maintenance, then there will be no atomic "boom."
A dirty bomb, yes. An atomic bomb, no.
By the way, to create useable amounts of Po-210 (an element not present in Nature), you need a working nuclear reactor (not exactly something that you can hide).