Hurricane Emily Advisory Number 18
Statement as of 5:00 am AST on July 15, 2005
...Category four Hurricane Emily churning west-northwestward toward
the central Caribbean Sea and Jamaica...
at 500 am AST...0900z...the government of Jamaica has replaced the
Hurricane Watch with a Hurricane Warning for all of Jamaica.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
within the warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for all of the Cayman Islands.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the northern coast of
Venezuela from Caracas westward to punto fijo...including the
offshore islands north of the coast and west of Caracas. Portions of
this warning area will likely be discontinued later today.
A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect for portions of the
southern coast of the Dominican Republic from Punta Salinas
westward to the Dominican Republic/Haiti border...and for the
entire southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the Dominican
Republic/Haiti border to Port-au-Prince.
A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect for Bonaire...Curacao...
and Aruba. Portions of this warning area will likely be discontinued
later today.
Interests elsewhere in the central and western Caribbean should
monitor the progress of Emily.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At 5 am AST...0900z...the center of Hurricane Emily was located near
latitude 13.9 north... longitude 69.2 west or about 385 miles...
620 km... south-southeast of Port au Prince Haiti and about 580
miles... 930 km...east-southeast of Kingston Jamaica.
Emily is moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph...32 km/hr...
and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24
hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 135 mph...215 km/hr...with higher
gusts. This makes Emily is a category four hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Some fluctuations in strength are
possible during the next 24 hours.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 40 miles... 65 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 140 miles...220 km.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 952 mb...28.11 inches.
Emily may produce total rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches
across portions of the Netherlands Antilles...and 3 to 6 inches are
possible over portions of Hispaniola. Emily is also expected to
produce total rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches over Jamaica...
with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches possible. These rains
could produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.
Repeating the 5 am AST position...13.9 N... 69.2 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 20 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...135 mph. Minimum central pressure... 952 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 8 am AST followed by the next
complete advisory at 11 am AST.
Forecaster Stewart
Hurricane Emily Discussion Number 18
Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on July 15, 2005
Emily has continued to intensify and is now a category 4 hurricane
based on a reconnaissance 700 mb flight-level wind of 128 kt in the
northeast quadrant at 0505z during the outbound leg. The pressure
had also decreased to 952 mb...down another 4 mb in just 2 hours.
Since the last recon flight...the eye has become cloud covered in
infrared satellite imagery. Given that Emily had an 8 nmi diameter
eye for nearly 6 hours...the hurricane is probably going through an
eyewall replacement cycle. The intensity is being held at 115 kt
for this advisory...even though the winds may be slightly lower
based on the ragged eye appearance noted in satellite imagery.
The initial motion estimate remains 285/17...as it has been for more
than 24 hours. It is difficult to argue against such a strong and
persistent past motion...but all of the global models and the GFDL
model are in strong agreement on taking Emily west-northwestward to
near the southwestern coast of Jamaica in 30-36 hours...and then
through the Yucatan Channel in 72 hours. In fact...there is less
than a 60 nmi spread in 72 hours. However...the models were
similarly in strong agreement 3 days ago...and now Emily is 250 nmi
south of those forecast positions! The models have consistently been
premature in weakening the subtropical ridge to the north that
extends from Bermuda across the Florida Peninsula and all the way
to southern Texas and northern Mexico. During the past 24 hours...
heights have changed little...if any at all...from 700 mb to 400 mb
across Florida and Puerto Rico. This would suggest that...at least
in the short term...Emily should continue to move at 285 degrees
and remain to the left...or south...of the model consensus. The
official forecast is just a tad south of the previous forecast.
The good outflow pattern and near 29c SSTs ahead of Emily suggest
that the hurricane should easily retain an intensity of category 3
to category 4 until landfall occurs over the Yucatan. After Emily
emerges over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico...29-30c SSTs should
help to keep the cyclone at least a category 3 hurricane.
Forecaster Stewart
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 15/0900z 13.9n 69.2w 115 kt
12hr VT 15/1800z 14.7n 71.8w 115 kt
24hr VT 16/0600z 15.8n 75.3w 115 kt
36hr VT 16/1800z 17.2n 78.7w 115 kt
48hr VT 17/0600z 18.5n 82.2w 115 kt
72hr VT 18/0600z 21.0n 88.0w 100 kt...inland over Yucatan
96hr VT 19/0600z 24.0n 93.0w 105 kt...over SW gulfmex
120hr VT 20/0600z 25.5n 97.0w 105 kt