Hurricane Emily Discussion Number 18
Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on July 15, 2005
Emily has continued to intensify and is now a category 4 hurricane
based on a reconnaissance 700 mb flight-level wind of 128 kt in the
northeast quadrant at 0505z during the outbound leg. The pressure
had also decreased to 952 mb...down another 4 mb in just 2 hours.
Since the last recon flight...the eye has become cloud covered in
infrared satellite imagery. Given that Emily had an 8 nmi diameter
eye for nearly 6 hours...the hurricane is probably going through an
eyewall replacement cycle. The intensity is being held at 115 kt
for this advisory...even though the winds may be slightly lower
based on the ragged eye appearance noted in satellite imagery.
The initial motion estimate remains 285/17...as it has been for more
than 24 hours. It is difficult to argue against such a strong and
persistent past motion...but all of the global models and the GFDL
model are in strong agreement on taking Emily west-northwestward to
near the southwestern coast of Jamaica in 30-36 hours...and then
through the Yucatan Channel in 72 hours. In fact...there is less
than a 60 nmi spread in 72 hours. However...the models were
similarly in strong agreement 3 days ago...and now Emily is 250 nmi
south of those forecast positions! The models have consistently been
premature in weakening the subtropical ridge to the north that
extends from Bermuda across the Florida Peninsula and all the way
to southern Texas and northern Mexico. During the past 24 hours...
heights have changed little...if any at all...from 700 mb to 400 mb
across Florida and Puerto Rico. This would suggest that...at least
in the short term...Emily should continue to move at 285 degrees
and remain to the left...or south...of the model consensus. The
official forecast is just a tad south of the previous forecast.
The good outflow pattern and near 29c SSTs ahead of Emily suggest
that the hurricane should easily retain an intensity of category 3
to category 4 until landfall occurs over the Yucatan. After Emily
emerges over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico...29-30c SSTs should
help to keep the cyclone at least a category 3 hurricane.
Forecaster Stewart
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 15/0900z 13.9n 69.2w 115 kt
12hr VT 15/1800z 14.7n 71.8w 115 kt
24hr VT 16/0600z 15.8n 75.3w 115 kt
36hr VT 16/1800z 17.2n 78.7w 115 kt
48hr VT 17/0600z 18.5n 82.2w 115 kt
72hr VT 18/0600z 21.0n 88.0w 100 kt...inland over Yucatan
96hr VT 19/0600z 24.0n 93.0w 105 kt...over SW gulfmex
120hr VT 20/0600z 25.5n 97.0w 105 kt
Statement as of 5:30 am EDT on July 15, 2005
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Emily...located about 580 miles east-southeast of Kingston Jamaica.
A tropical wave located about 1000 miles east of the Leeward Islands has become a little better organized this morning. Thunderstorm activity has increased and upper-level winds have become a little more favorable for tropical cyclone development to occur over the next day or two as the systen moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected through Saturday.
Forecaster Stewart