Posted on 07/13/2005 7:11:21 PM PDT by NautiNurse
Hurricane Emily resources--the links are self-updating for handy reference:
NHC Hurricane Public Advisory Updates Currently published every three hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET.
NHC Hurricane Discussion Updates Published every 6 hours 5A, 11A, 5P, 11P ET
Caribbean Visible Loop (Only works during daylight hours)
Puerto Rico Long Range Radar Loop
Emily Forecast Track Archive Loop Great for reviewing the 3 day and 5 day historic track positions
I was thinking of a stand-alone structure, above ground and probably an A-frame type structure. Something inexpensive I could build myself. It doesn't have to be pretty or especially comfortable, just safe for 2-3 hours every now and then.
...Emily becomes a hurricane in the Windward Islands...
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Grenada...St. Vincent...The Grenadines...and St. Lucia.
At 11 PM AST...0300z...the government of Venezuela has extended the Tropical Storm Warning westward from Cumana to punto fijo on the paraguana peninsula.
At 11 PM AST...the government of Barbados has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Barbados.
A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for Trinidad... Tobago...and the northern coast of Venezuela from Pedernales westward to punto fijo...including Isla Margarita and the offshore islands north of the coast and west of Cumana.
A tropical storm watch is in effect for Bonaire...Curacao...and Aruba.
Interests elsewhere in the central Caribbean should monitor the progress of Emily.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
At 11 PM AST...0300z...the center of Hurricane Emily was located near latitude 11.9 north... longitude 61.1 west or about 45 miles... 70 km... east-southeast of Grenada.
Emily is moving toward the west near 18 mph ...30 km/hr...and this motion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours. On this track...Emily will pass through the Windward Islands tonight and emerge in the southeastern Caribbean Sea early Thursday.
Data from a U.S. Air Force reconnaissance aircraft indicates that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph...150 km/hr...with higher gusts. Emily is a category one hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles... 35 km... from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles...185 km.
The most recent minimum central pressure reported by the reconnaissance aircraft was 992 mb...29.29 inches.
Emily is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches across the Windward Islands...Trinidad and Tobago...portions of northern Venezuela...and the Netherlands Antilles...with possible isolated amounts of 12 inches over mountainous terrain. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels can be expected near and to the north of the path of the center.
Repeating the 11 PM AST position...11.9 N... 61.1 W. Movement toward...west near 18 mph. Maximum sustained winds... 90 mph. Minimum central pressure... 992 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 2 am AST followed by the next complete advisory at 5 am AST.
Forecaster Knabb
A sealed cement box that floats and has AC. SOunldn't be a problem at all.
SOunldn't = Shouldn't
I'm pretty sure a dome or flat roof is preferable over an A-frame.
When we build our "cabin" I want a small basement for Tornado weather. I had looked into the safe rooms but I saw what that tornado did in Jerrel. What would keep even an internal safe room from being blown off the foundation?
Emily has rapidly intensified into a hurricane this evening. The first aircraft fix at 2331z indicated the low level center was beneath the western edge of the deep convection and measured a central pressure of 1000 mb. 00z Dvorak intensity estimates ranged from 50 to 65 kt...with the stronger estimates based on a low level center in the middle of the deep convection. Later recon fixes showed that the center had reformed to the northeast within the convection...and the wind and pressure data soon responded. The pressure has most recently fallen to 992 mb...and the maximum 850 mb flight level wind has been 79 kt...supporting at least 63 kt at the surface. However...reduction to the surface of a dropsonde profile just north of the center at 01z supports surface winds of 80 kt...which is the advisory intensity. The intensity forecast is adjusted upward from the previous advisory...making Emily a major hurricane by 48 hours. This could be conservative.
Due to the scatter in the recon fixes during the past couple of hours...initial motion is uncertain but is estimated at 275/16. Except for a slight northward adjustment to account for the new position...the track forecast is very similar to the previous advisory. The NWS models...GFS and GFDL...have changed little since the previous runs...while the Navy models...GFDN and NOGAPS...have shifted only slightly to the south. The official forecast takes Emily west-northwestward across the Caribbean Sea...in accordance with the tightly clustered dynamical model guidance.
Forecaster Knabb
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 14/0300z 11.9n 61.1w 80 kt 12hr VT 14/1200z 12.5n 63.5w 85 kt 24hr VT 15/0000z 13.4n 66.7w 90 kt 36hr VT 15/1200z 14.5n 70.0w 95 kt 48hr VT 16/0000z 15.5n 73.2w 100 kt 72hr VT 17/0000z 17.5n 79.0w 100 kt 96hr VT 18/0000z 19.5n 85.0w 100 kt 120hr VT 19/0000z 21.0n 90.5w 90 kt
I agree and think a bunker type shelter would be best. Concrete block walls with rebar and filled with more concrete would seem to offer the most protection. The roof could be poured, reinforced concrete. Should be tornado proof too.
Center-jump makes sense, I think I alluded to that at some point last night or this AM. Should see the tracks come north a tad... probably going to hold onto a Yucatan hit for a few days, but the UKMET has me wondering.
The trend this yr has been north of suggested model tracks.
To have survived the Jarrell F5 tornado you flat out would have had to be underground.
People should keep in mind that the winds of even the strongest Cat 5 hurricanes are trivial compared to those of an F5 tornado.
Even in Andrew, with all of that destruction, very few people were killed. The way people get killed in large numbers in hurricanes is storm surge and inland flooding, not wind.
To simply have an entire house that would survive a Cat 3-4 (remember only three Cat 5s have hit the US in this century, they're INCREDIBLY rare) actually isn't amazingly difficult from a design or cost perspective.
And a "safe room" to survive a Cat 5 hurricane wouldn't have to be nearly as elaborate as that to survive a strong tornado.
It would have to be anchored to the ground someway.
You would have to anchor it securely to keep it in place. A basement safe room would be the best.
Major problem with flat roof--they can collapse from water weight when the drains become clogged with debris. Saw this first-hand in Stuart FL last year. Eleven condo buildings condemned in one complex when the flat roofs collapsed.
You are correct, the sewing machine was the culprit.........it's a portable and was in the case on the floor and I tripped over it.
I don't need my ankle to tell me about approaching hurricanes or any other weather problems - my arm does that already and has ever since I dislocated my shoulder and collar bone while shovelling during the February 2003 blizzard.
Unfortunately I am in a great deal of pain, again due to my own clumsiness - I lost my balance last night on the crutches and banged it real hard - I don't have a full cast on it, just what is called a splint, a plaster cast that is only on the back of my leg and semi-supporting the ankle. I really thought I was oging to the orthopedist today to get a real cast put on - no such luck. I'm now sceduled for surgery Friday morning to put a plate in there to fix the damage. What fun.
Oh well - enough of my pity party - let us return to our regularly scheduled pain in the tuchus tropical problem........
Yeah it's just that I can leave if a storm coming in. We have "sudden" warnings several times a year and I would like to have a tornado shelter that could be a back up for a hurricane too.
Lotsa limestone - in Jarrell, too - no can do basements in much or most of Central TX.
Not much danger of collapse from a bunker/saferoom flat roof. It would be a lot smaller and have steel bars connecting it to the side walls before the concrete is poured. Not really all that expensive but not much danger of a collapse either.
From Hurricane-Resistant House Design :
Hip roofs are the best design for high winds, but are more expensive to construct.
Gable roofs are acceptable and less expensive.
The pitch of the roof should be at least 30 degrees (approximately 1 ft increase in elevation for every 2 ft in the horizontal direction).
Flat roofs should be avoided completely.
It doesn't say anything about round homes or domes, but I would think that they'd be best.
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