Posted on 07/13/2005 7:11:21 PM PDT by NautiNurse
Hurricane Emily resources--the links are self-updating for handy reference:
NHC Hurricane Public Advisory Updates Currently published every three hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET.
NHC Hurricane Discussion Updates Published every 6 hours 5A, 11A, 5P, 11P ET
Caribbean Visible Loop (Only works during daylight hours)
Puerto Rico Long Range Radar Loop
Emily Forecast Track Archive Loop Great for reviewing the 3 day and 5 day historic track positions
gdfl has it weakening in the GOM.
Weird, wouldn't expect weakening with the very warm surface waters off the coast of Texas.
Houston area Alica(sp) 1980 ish.
not an expert so I don't know, except they have it passing over the tip of Cuba.
That long ago? Then I don't need to worry every time a hurricane appears because the odds are, it won't come here, right? So I should sit back and relax and take it easy and all that, right?
Was Alicia a direct hit? Lots of damage? If not, when was the last hurricane to hit Houston where people regretted not evacuating?
It's that whole floating balls of fire ants thing. Y'all told me about that last year and I had nightmares a couple times!
Before that you have to go back to Alicia in 1983, a Cat 3 that hit a bullseye on Houston. It killed over 20 people and was the most expensive Texas hurricane to date.
There's only been one known Cat 5 storm to hit the Gulf Coast, Camille.
That one was outrageous. 190 mph winds.
We had snow here this past Christmas, too. My birdbath looked like a miniature ice rink with snow rimming the edges. CindyDawg says she still has snowballs in the freezer. So if that saying has any weight, then much of the Texas coast could be a target of Emily.
They used to say that Galveston Island is due for a hurricane every 20 years or so.
1961 Carla
1983 Alicia
2005 ???
Yea, that is kinda nasty, it you bump into one they all crawl on you and start stinging. Very nasty, so are the snakes, best thing is to leave town for high ground.
Not really. The gdfl model has it hitting the Yucatan and weakening over land. Then it has it coming ashore in Mexico near Tampico before regaining much strength.
Let me tell you Alicia was a bitch, came in as a cat 2 stalled on the Galveston coast and beat us for 18 hours, was without power for 6 weeks, I said she was a bitch.
http://met.psu.edu/tropical/tcgengifs/
That's what I honestly think will happen. Maybe a 30% chance it will hit Brownsville, 15% chance it will hit Cropus and 5% chance it will hit Galveston or places north of there. I'd be happy if it came by and gave us a good soaking.
time for a beer, we will know a lot more this weekend.
I have spent a little time on Galveston Island and the surrounding area and I never heard about the snow and hurricane connection.
Here's a link to the bouys.
Check out the water temps.
Somebody would have to do some serious explaining how Emily could shoot the Channel and then weaken over even hotter water. There's nothing to indicate that it will encounter shear. Emily should gain strenght once in the Gulf.
It doesn't rain much here but lately we have been having thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Hard to tell at this point, it's a good bit past the 5 day window of even slightly reasonable forecasting. East TX should be about the furthest west the main ridge axis will set up, so it is possible you would see a swing north into that area. Then again, if the storm doesn't hit TX, most of the moisture will probably get eaten up by Mexico.
Larry will likely post once the storm gets a little closer to the U.S. Maybe tomorrow, or Saturday.. He kind of comes and goes, but should pipe in if the storm looks like a U.S. threat. I think his ego was slightly bruised with Dennis, he had a good landfall guess... but was high on the intensity.
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