Hurricane Emily

NHC-NOAA ^ | 13 July 2005 | NHC

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane Emily resources--the links are self-updating for handy reference:

NHC Hurricane Public Advisory Updates Currently published every three hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET.

NHC Hurricane Discussion Updates Published every 6 hours 5A, 11A, 5P, 11P ET

Caribbean IR Loop

Caribbean Visible Loop (Only works during daylight hours)

Puerto Rico Long Range Radar Loop

Hurricane Track Forecast

Hurricane Model Projections

Emily Forecast Track Archive Loop Great for reviewing the 3 day and 5 day historic track positions

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[Gabz]

This is NOT good news.

[jpsb]

A cat 2 would do very nicely.

[jpsb]

ping

[varina davis]

Yes, she officially has shifted considerably north with the center reformation per: NHC 11 p.m. discussion.

[jpsb]

gdfl looks like lower Texas coast.

[mcshot]

Just found out my daughters, husband and granddaughters are moving to Orlando. Hope they do alright. This parting stuff with the kids leaves something to be desired. But we had fun with them and enjoy their company but wish they were still here. Hurricane threads will have a whole new meaning now.

mc

[nwctwx]

My personal feeling is that this will affect someone in TX from HOU--->South to the border. That goes against the general meteorological consensus at this time though, so I probably shouldn't get too far into it just yet. ;-) My real question is what exactly she does with the Yucatan, because that could be it... I've seen several storms die there.

[dc-zoo]

Exploded into a full-blown hurricane in 3 hours. Amazing.

[jpsb]

Still way to early to call, I have seen storms cross Yucatan intact and others die there. Yucatan is low and flat a fast moving storm can cross. Emily might not even hit Yucatan but to avoid doing so she needs to turn a little more north 275 ain't gonna do it.

[jpsb]

Done. (Texas Hurricane ping list)

[The South Texan]

I hope not, but we are WAY overdue for a cane on the Texas coast. Corpus hasn't had a direct hit since 1971 with Celia which was a minimal hurricane one day and exploded right of the coast here into a monster and did all sorts of damage to the Coastal Bend. Allen in 1980 was monster in size and brushed Corpus, but the real bad stuff hit on the King Ranch and Port Manisfield area (I was a kid in the Valley back then and a tree was uprooted and almost hit our house). Gilbert was another monster that followed a track in the Caribbean similar to the one that Emily appears to be taking, but it went into central Mexican coast. Bret almost hit Corpus with a direct hit with some powerful winds in 1999, but it took a sudden turn and hit the King Ranch south of Kingsville. We've been lucky and I'm sure the good folks in Florida and the other gulf state would like to sit out on the next one or two. BTW, go ahead and put me on the ping list whomever is in charge of the Cane ping list

[nwctwx]

FWIW, new UKMET brings the storm right between Cuba and the Yucatan... to Brownsville.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.cgi?time=2005071400&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[The South Texan]

If she hits in the Brownsville area, Corpus will just get some TS force winds and rain (which we need big time). Of course that is if she stays the size she is which is an unknown. I think I'll go to Home Depot on Friday to get my plywood for my windows, just in case.

Allen and Gilbert both took a southern course across the Caribbean and that should be a sign for most Texans on the coast to get ready.

[Pebcak]

jpsb: Thank you.

Gilbert wasn't counted as a hit, so the Valley is way overdue.
The last hit was Alan. Are you upper or lower Valley? We're upper.

CindyDawg is in the lower, if I remember from planning to Freep Terzilla-Heinz-Kerry. (Be careful down there girl!)

Tomorrow is time to buy!

[Pebcak]

Thanks for the ping. Are you upper or lower?

[RGVTx]

Thanks for the ping.

We have already began preparing. Getting loose things put away or secured. Did the shopping for supplies tonight. Wood to cover the windows are ready from years past. We'll probably load our cabover camper on the truck this weekend in case we decide to run from Emily.

We have our own hurricane "ping" list of homes to board up.
We'll probably be boarding up homes for a couple of days or more if there's any chance of it coming near south Texas.

[RGVTx]

I'm in Harlingen, Pebcak. Nice to meet you.

[nwctwx]

We're definately going to need to see some changes occur in the GOM to get the storm to TX.

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_hem_loop-12.gif

High pressure pretty well anchored it seems, nice ring of convection popped this afternoon. That would block the storm from entering the GOM... but, I would be surprised if the map looks exactly the same in 4-5 days.

New Euro plows the storm into the central Yucatan, then doesn't do much with it as it stays very close to the Mexico coast in the southern GOM.

[The South Texan]

I hope you are right. I'm still going to HD on Friday to get my plywood. IF this one doesn't come close, another one will some day.

[RGVTx]

Good idea...be prepared. We've been using the same wood for years now. We labled them so it's easy to know which goes where.