Posted on 07/12/2005 7:18:42 AM PDT by UCAL
.........Their conflicted feelings are important because experts say the state's 6th Congressional District is a barometer of national opinion.
"If there is a bellwether district with an incumbent sitting in it, I would pick this district," said Amy Walters, who analyzes House races for the Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan organization based in Washington.
No neat political categories
The congressman, Republican Rep. Jim Gerlach, won a second term with 51 percent of the vote in 2004, as the district narrowly voted for Democrat John Kerry in the presidential race.
While partisanship in Washington has reached a fevered pitch, many of those interviewed said they did not fit into neat political categories and expressed frustration that many lawmakers refused to budge from their party's stands.
Take Wayne Littleton, a 69-year-old retired truck driver who was Gordal's dinner companion. A political independent who voted for President Bush last year, Littleton said he supported the president's decision to keep the U.S. military in Iraq, but he disagreed with his plans to revamp Social Security by creating private accounts and reducing future benefits for more affluent retirees.
"I don't think people know how to invest," he said.
Littleton said politicians are wasting time arguing over abortion, particularly in regard to whether Bush should nominate a Supreme Court justice who opposes the procedure.
The congressional district covers an eclectic blend of neighborhoods, including a slice of the established Main Line suburbs of Philadelphia, a one-time GOP stronghold that has been trending Democrat. It fans out to upscale, copycat housing developments carved from the rolling countryside — the kind of Republican-leaning exurbs that provided new voters for Bush in 2004.
Blue-collar swing vote The district also includes a smattering of industrial communities such as Pottstown, where blue-collar voters have vacillated between the parties over the years.
Jeff Ives, a 35-year-old maintenance mechanic, is one of the swing voters who make political outcomes in this district unpredictable.
Gerlach straddling fence Ives said he opposed abortion and gay marriage and supported Pennsylvania's GOP Sen. Rick Santorum, a social conservative who faces a tough re-election fight in 2006. But Ives voted for Kerry because of concerns about the economy and the war in Iraq.
He said the invasion of Iraq was unjustified, and "now that we are committed, stay the course, finish the job."
Ives said he backed Bush's call for private retirement accounts: "I have more faith in myself than the federal government to invest my money."
On the other hand, Ives said he opposes the free-trade pacts that are supported by Bush and will be considered by the House this month.
"We need to be worried about strengthening our own manufacturing base," he said.
Gerlach has straddled the ideological fence in Congress, supporting the White House on issues such as Iraq, while parting with Bush by opposing private retirement accounts and voting to expand stem cell research.
Democrats taking aim Nevertheless, Democrats view Gerlach as a prime target in the 2006 midterm elections, and liberal groups already have tried to tie him to House Majority Leader Tom DeLay, who faces a House ethics probe over allegations that lobbyists paid for his foreign travel.
Gerlach has received $20,000 in campaign contributions from DeLay's political action committee and contributed $2,000 to a legal defense fund for the Sugar Land Republican.
Gerlach said the Texan's ethics controversies would have little impact in the district, saying that most voters here "don't know who Tom DeLay is."
At the same time, Gerlach said the House ethics investigation should proceed and "let the chips fall where they may."
Not likely to lose (unless Rendell has massive coattails). It's going to be a rematch between last year's loser and Gerlach.
If there had been better redistricting this would be a safe district. Areas of safe gop areas could have been added to this district and those seats would have still been safe and this district would have been safe.
As it is this district is very scary having voted for Kerry and being in the philly suburbs which have taken a left turn especially on social issues.
These suburbs killed Bush in Pennsylvania.
Best hope is that gerlach was a first time incumbent and will do better second time around defending his seat as his constituents get to know him better.
Losing a congressional seat doesn't necessarily hurt you. Leftist Melissa Bean lost by 11 percent then won by 4 percent.
"Littleton said politicians are wasting time arguing over abortion, particularly in regard to whether Bush should nominate a Supreme Court justice who opposes the procedure. "
Does the misinformation ever cease?
It is not a question of whether or not a justice personally opposes abortion, it is whether or not a justice believes in the invented-out-of-thin-air right to abortion magically discovered in 1973. As such it is a much bigger question; does the justice believe it is the role of judges to create new rights never envisioned or intended by the framers of the Constitution and the people who ratified it, in the name of a 'living Constitution', or should they leave such matters to the proper and intended political/popular/democratic bodies?
It is quite possible to be pro-choice, yet think Roe is a legal abomination.
"Gerlach straddling fence Ives said he opposed abortion and gay marriage and supported Pennsylvania's GOP Sen. Rick Santorum, a social conservative who faces a tough re-election fight in 2006. But Ives voted for Kerry because of concerns about the economy and the war in Iraq"
I hope that "representative of the rest of the country" isn't really a euphemism for "populated by numbskulls."
"If there had been better redistricting this would be a safe district. Areas of safe gop areas could have been added to this district and those seats would have still been safe and this district would have been safe."
Gerrymandering is as wrong when we do it as when the Rats do it.
If we have to redraw districts to get our candidates elected, we need better candidates.
This district is Jim's to lose. He is a really nice guy, but he isn't firm enough on many issues. That is just my opinion though. I didn't expect him to win the last time. He barely pulled it out...
And that loser was an unknown who has been gaining in recognition since. Don't fool yourself; it's not going to be easy to hold.
*ping* What's your opinion on Gerlach ?
But, but Rendell is term limited, is he not? And thus ineligible for re-election?
Rendell has only been elected Governor once, in 2002. He can run for reelection in 2006, but if he wins he won't be able to run again in 2010.
"If there had been better redistricting this would be a safe district. Areas of safe gop areas could have been added to this district and those seats would have still been safe and this district would have been safe."
"What's your opinion on Gerlach ?"
He's starting to sound more like a Jon Fox to me... Not too good. :-|
I can't imagine what it would be like to be represented by a 'rat....
I will say that Gerlach got in largely because of efforts by pro-lifers. There was a huge push in 2004 because of the presidential race in all the Catholic churches in the area. Not well publicized is the fact that Bush carried the practicing Catholics in the Philly suburbs by more than 80%. Gerlach was riding the president's coattails. Even though Bush narrowly lost Gerlach's district, Catholic voters came out to vote for the president and in an off year some Gerlach voters would likely have stayed home.
Interestingly, Santorum ticked off pro-lifers by endorsing Specter. The level of support that was there in the Catholic Churches in 2004 will definitely be lower this time around. If Bush drops the ball on the Supreme Court nominee, I think Gerlach is toast. Gerlach and Santorum will make the voters guides in the Catholic parishes, but the huge push for practicing Catholics to get out and vote will not be there.
All in all, I think Gerlach is probably not going to win.
A month ago I'd have agreed with you. But this property rights thing has people ticked off like I haven't seen in years.
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