I've been arguing this for a long time. He peels off Indiana AND Ohio next door and with it the election. To beat him the Republicans will need to beat him at his own game. That's going to be a whole lot more difficult than taking on Hillary with her multitude of liabilities. Hillary would certainly not carry Indiana but Bayh would. Do the arithmetic.
It all depends on who the Republicans choose as well. A moderate Republican vs. a moderate Democrat will mean the winner will likely win with about 40% of the popular vote, as both the right and left would splinter off to third parties...
I agree with both of you - Bayh should not be underestimated. The real question is whether the Dems will have come to their senses and realized they must nominate a perceived moderate to win. No sign of that yet, but wait to see how '06 shakes out.
Hillary is of course the 800-pound gorilla in this match. The problem for the Dems is that her negatives are so high she'd lose no matter how "moderate" she tried to make herself look. And she cannot triangulate anywhere near as good as her husband.