Tropical Storm Emily

NOAA ^ | July 10, 2005 | National Hurricane Center

[varina davis]

BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST SUN JUL 10 2005

...FIFTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 42.9 WEST OR ABOUT 1280 MILES...2055 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON MONDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...10.8 N... 42.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM AST.

FORECASTER STEWART

[varina davis]

Dennis has barely calmed down and it looks like Emily is on the way. Expected to possibly be in the Caribbean or Bahamas by weekend or early next week. A historic season, both for the number of early tropical storms and magnitude.

[aberaussie]

aaack. Can we catch our breath please???

[kemathen7]

Man, I feel for the citizens down there, but this wall to wall coverage one Fox, CNN, etc is getting ... well, played out. They might as well keep repeating the same film throughout the hurricane season and save themselves the time and money.

Whew. What a summer.

[nwctwx]

http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showtopic=40696

[Clive]

Three Day Cone:

[STARWISE]

This is not even funny anymore ... God.. Please bless the weather!

[nwctwx]

Initial model analysis on this event leads me to believe this system WILL be at the very least a THREAT to the U.S. If it tracks north of the Islands, it will likely be a SE U.S./Eastern FL hit. If it goes below the islands, it is likely to try to emerge into the gulf of mexico... that would be the 5th African (not true Cape Verde) system to march across the atlantic into the Gulf.

Models are also hinting that the wave following it will develop as well. Hopefully we get a few week break after that, but this may be a summer of constant threat if this continues.

[CindyDawg]

Paths close, huh?

[joesnuffy]

Hope Dennis kicked up some cooler water for this one to travel over

[injin]

from a recent e-mail re: using large bombs to derail hurricanes :
His whole argument is based on: "some say [the energy of a hurricane is] equivalent to 400 20-megaton hydrogen bombs."

That may be true if you consider the number of square miles in the footprint of a hurricane. What he should be considering is the eyeball, not the entire hurricane. An organized eye is 10 to 15 miles across and very susceptible to overpressure changes. Of course it is ridiculous to think of using nuclear to do the job. Radiation would be worse than the winds. What you need for a FAW (fuel-air-weapon)to work is clam air where the fine particles of fuel would disperse evenly. The eye is calm air. I am suggesting that someone experiment with BLU-82s (or the new and improved version) by kicking them out the doors of those hurricane hunter aircraft in patterns. Timing and distribution placement would be the unknowns of the experiment. It sure as hell isn't going to cause a bigger hurricane because a hurricane depends on organization. Eyeball disruptions will produce the opposite effect. Notice that when the eyeball goes over a land formation the hurricane drops dramatically in strength. Dennis went from, I think, a 3 to a 1 over Cuba. If I were going to design an experiment to try, I would start with a hurricane about a 100 miles off shore and hit it with a pattern of 4 bombs--N then S then East and then West. After dropping the bombs the planes would have to do some detailed measuring of the pressure responses near the eyeball. From that you would get some ideas on what to try next. It may take a few hurricanes to get the right pattern, but I think that you would find something that would break up or significantly dissipate the hurricane.

Every time anyone has an idea about anything, there are always nay-sayers who will start throwing their garbage without any supporting facts. No one on Earth can say that they know what would happen, because no one has tried anything like this. Clearly, throwing all the explosives in the world into a hurricane 100 miles from the eyeball would make no difference. I strongly believe that the very small atmospheric pressure difference across the eyeball would be hugely effected by an explosion that creates pressures hundreds of times those pressures.

Cost of the experiment would be tiny compared to the damage caused by one hurricane. Eglin AFB is the home base for the fuel air weapons and, I think that Patrick AFB is the home of the hurricane hunters. The technology is right there. Why not try it.

[SlowBoat407]

Injin, I'm not disputing your premise (heck, I haven't got the physics background to even begin to discuss what effects a fuel-air explosive would have). However, you would have a lot more credibility if you got your terminology straight. It's the eyeWALL, not the eyeBALL.

/ hurricane terminology nazi

[Strategerist]

NHC and various agencies have gotten tens of thousands of letters and e-mails and what not, every year, year after year, since 1945 suggesting the use of bombs (usually nuclear) to disrupt hurricanes.

Not like you're original.

I've noticed that people have trouble mentally processing what a complete joke even nuclear weapons are compared to large quakes, volcanoes, and hurricanes.

And biggest non-nuclear bombs in the world wouldn't have the slightest effect on any tropical system, in any pattern. They'd be 10,000 times less effect on one than trying to use a BB gun to bring down an elephant.

[Saundra Duffy]

God's pissed.

[dfwgator]

Oh Geez Not This Sh!t Again!

[Strategerist]

God's pissed.

Why is the atmopshere functioning normally evidence of the displeasure of a deity?

[kAcknor]

Guy from AccuWeather just predicted the Carolinas better watch out 10 days from now...

[SlowBoat407]

How's this for an analogy: It's like trying to use a match to disrupt the cooling cycle of an air conditioner. The power of the air cycling through the system is just too great. Besides, hurricans are a vital part of the system that helps balance the temperature distribution throughout the world. If we start messing with them (even if we could) there's no telling what effect it would have down the road. It would likely be far worse than what the MSM claims humans are doing to create global warming.

[SlowBoat407]

Why is the atmopshere functioning normally evidence of the displeasure of a deity?

Because displeasure seems to be the normal state of most deities.

[Strategerist]

This is the same guy that predicted Dennis would hit New Orleans.

[Hank Rearden]

Time to shut down all the news nets to focus on just one topic, because it's raining in Florida again this summer.

How fascinating, just like last year. Roll out those archived "Shoot, Martha, we're a-gonna rebuild, heck yah! Just lahk last year, we surely will. Yo, taxpayers - start sendin' the money; we gotta rebuild on the beach!" clips from the video vaults.