Posted on 07/06/2005 1:15:54 AM PDT by RWR8189
London, Paris, Madrid, New York and Moscow will finally learn on Wednesday who has prevailed in the battle to host the 2012 Olympics and Paralympics.
The cities' fate lies in the hands of the International Olympic Committee members (IOC), who may take less than an hour to reach a verdict.
IOC president Jacques Rogge is expected to announce the winner at 1246 BST.
BBC Sport explains the voting process and looks for clues on how it could go in Singapore.
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RIVAL IOC MEMBERS
 GB: Princess Royal, Craig Reedie, Phil Craven
France: Jean-Claude Killy, Guy Drut, Henri Serandour
Spain: Juan Antonio Samaranch Jr, L'Infante Dona Pilar de Borbon
US: Anita Defrantz, Robert Ctvrtlik, James Easton
Russia: Vitaly Smirnov, Alexander Popov, Shamil Tarpischev
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The city with the least votes will drop out each time, so it may take four rounds to reach a final decision.
Some 99 of the 116 members will vote to begin with.
IOC president Jacques Rogge has decided to sit it out, Bulgarian Ivan Slavkov has been suspended following a BBC investigation, while Frenchman Guy Drut withdrew over his involvement in a corruption case.
The 14 members from the five nations battling for hosting rights cannot take part until their city is eliminated.
Olympic voting history tells us that the favourites rarely win, which explains why Paris has not relished its front-runner status.
The pattern was broken four years ago, when Beijing wrapped up the vote for 2008 in two rounds.
But the Chinese capital's landslide victory over Toronto, Paris, Istanbul and Osaka - boosted by the backing of outgoing IOC chief Juan Antonio Samaranch - was unusual.
The battle for the 2004 Games went to the last round before Athens beat pre-vote favourite Rome by 66 votes to 41.
It was even closer for 2000, when Sydney trailed Beijing all the way through the vote but sprang a late surprise by edging home 45-43.
Atlanta saw off Athens in the final round for hosting rights in 1996, although Barcelona needed only three rounds to defeat its five rivals for 1992.
IOC members are a fickle constituency.
Some Olympic watchers believe as few as 20 could plough their way through the evaluation report, which might blunt the edge Paris gained from its glowing assessment.
A necessity for any candidate city is a strong hard core of support to make sure it survives an embarrassing first-round exit.
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LATEST ODDS
4-9 Paris
7-4 London
10-1 Madrid
50-1 New York
50-1 Moscow
Source: William Hill 5 July
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But the ability to hoover up second, third and even fourth-choice votes is ultimately the key to success.
With Moscow widely expected to have strong support in Eastern Europe and Madrid likewise in Latin America, the race will be on to pick up votes if those cities go out.
Influential figures like Senegal's Lamine Diack, Italy's Mario Pescante, Mexican Mario Vazquez Rana and Yu Zaiqing of China have been identified as potential kingmakers in their regions.
And Samaranch, who has close links with London bid leader Lord Coe, could also play a part if his likely favourite Madrid goes out.
A range of factors may influence the outcome - from internal and international politics right down to where members' wives would prefer to spend their summer holidays in 2012.
Comparisons with the Eurovision Song Contest are not completely wide of the mark.
The current theory doing the rounds is that Paris will triumph over London by a handful of votes but no-one really knows.
In the most recent selection process, Pyeongchang in South Korea emerged from obscurity to get within just three votes of snatching the 2010 Winter Games away from Vancouver.
Paris has been warned.
Yes it is!
I'm listening Live! to the BBC's 'Five Live' radio program. Just listened to a press conference by the lead London bid presenter Sebastian Coe, the former great middle distance runner.
London.
The London are folks calling into Five Live on the BBC radio broadcast sound overwhelmed with pride after listening to their presentation.
I'd like to see them get it. Not Paris, not Moscow and not Madrid.
We don;t need the security problems and who knows who will be POTUS come 2012?
New York, New York ( Frank Sinatra )
Start spreading the news, I'm leaving today
I want to be a part of it - New York, New York
These vagabond shoes, are longing to stray
Right through the very heart of it - New York, New York
I want to wake up in a city, that doesn't sleep
And find I'm king of the hill - top of the heap
These little town blues, are melting away
I'm gonna make a brand new start of it - in old New York
If I can make it there, I'll make it anywhere
It's up to you - New York, New York
New York, New York
I want to wake up in a city, that never sleeps
To find I'm a number one, head of the list,
Cream of the crop at the top of the heap.
These little town blues, are melting away
I'm gonna make a brand new start of it - in old New York
If I can make it there, I'm gonna make it anywhere
It's up to you - New York, New York
New York out second round.
Madrid out third round.
It's down to London versus Paris now.
Is that your prediction or actual results?
Actual. I was listening to BBC. ;)
Thanks. Pretty much as expected. Go Brits!
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