TradeSports does tends to settle matters.
It was certainly more accurate than any of the polls during the last couple election cycles. Read the works of economists on the power of the distributed intelligence contained in markets, then get back to me.
No it wasn't. It taked right before the election and predicted a Kerry win, before flipping to Bush around 11pm when most of the votes were counted and it was becoming inevitable.
George W. Bush doesn't really comprise his own market. Ultimately, he will choose whatever nominee appeals most to his own sense of who offers the most bang for the buck. He will listen to the grassroots ("distributed intelligence in the markets"), but in the end who he chooses might not be whom the grassroots most want. He is not always predictable.