Posted on 07/01/2005 8:28:48 PM PDT by strategofr
The speech US President George W. Bush makes Tuesday, June 28, at the elite 82nd Airborne Division’s home at Fort Bragg, N.C. is fraught with symbolism. The venue is the home base of the division that has born the brunt of the two-and-a half year Iraq war. The date is the first anniversary of the transfer of post-Saddam government to Iraqi sovereignty. One year ago, US administrator Paul Bremer handed the keys of government to interim prime minister Iyad Allawi amid high hopes of a new Iraq.
Allawi remains Washington’s key man in Baghdad, even after the January general election produced a new administration headed by prime minister Ibrahim Jaafari and president Jalal Talabani. The Bush administration is counting on him heavily to eventually find a way out of the Iraqi insurgency and its supportive Arab terror campaign and put an end to guerrilla-terror war that has claimed 1,715 Americans lives and left an Iraqi death toll estimated in tens of thousands. Since the incumbent government took office in April, more than 1000 have been killed, most of them Iraqis.
But as Bush assures Americans that their country will win the war, Allawi, according to DEBKAfile’s military and intelligence sources, is playing a supporting role in Amman, Jordan. There, he is running a negotiating marathon with batch after batch of Sunni tribal leaders, guerrilla commanders – some as menacing as the al Qaeda-linked Ansar al Islam – and senior Sunni clerics. His mission is to broker an end to the violence plaguing Iraq. (Ansar al Islam was seriously discomfited by the publication of these contacts and made haste to reaffirm its individed dedication to jihad.)
According to our sources, Allawi embarked on the most intensive phase of his Amman talks Saturday, June 25, after secret preparatory visits to two Arab capitals – Damascus, June 23, to see Syrian president Bashar Assad, and Cairo Friday, June 24 for talks with Egypt’s Hosni Mubarak. His purpose was to enlist their aid in stopping Iraq’s guerrilla war. The former Iraqi premier was provided with a special plane by the United Arab Emirates which is chipping in with funding for his US-backed peace mission.
The Iraqi mediator left Damascus empty handed.
Assad again spurned the umpteenth demand to seal Syria’s borders against the outflow to Iraq of the Arab fighters, weapons, explosives and money fueling the insurgency. He likewise refused to shut down the al Qaeda and pro-Saddam Baath senior command posts and training camps operating out of Syria’s main cities. Allawi and Assad never got along. But the Syrian ruler made a deliberate gesture of ill will by immediately inviting Allawi’s great political rival Iraqi president Jalal Talabani to visit Damascus in the coming days. The invitation was also meant as a hint to Iraqi Arabs and Sunnis that the Americans and the former prime minister were not the only options on the board.
In Cairo, Allawi was warmly welcomed. Mubarak not only promised assistance for a negotiated accommodation to pacify Iraq, but there and then, picked up the phone and ordered Arab League secretary Amr Mussa to put the entire organization behind the Allawi mission.
In Amman, the Shiite politician is at home.
DEBKA-Net-Weekly 210 of June 17 was the first world publication to disclose the Hashemite royal palace’s deep involvement on Washington’s behalf in the secret track running between US and guerrilla commanders. King Abdullah has placed his own national security adviser General Saad Kheir in charge of the Jordanian liaison officers carrying messages back and forth between the parties.
But in the five months since these Amman-based exchanges began, little has been achieved. Worst of all, the level of violence has not diminished, but the reverse.
So how does Bush see Allawi proceeding next?
According to DEBKAfile sources, mid-July has been set as the deadline for the Iraqi politician to wind up his negotiations with the Sunni guerrillas. That is supposed to give him time to organize a Sunni Arab Congress that will bring together 250 delegates of all the Sunni factions, parties and guerrilla groups. Their attendance will serve as a ticket to Iraq’s mainstream political process. Whereas Allawi is a secular Shiite outside government, he has enlisted a reliable and solid collaborator inside the cabinet: Sunni defense minister Saadoun al-Duleimi.
DEBKAfile’s Iraq experts believe that, even if Allawi brings the entire maneuver off, there is no guarantee that guerrilla operations will instantly cease or even abate. A decline may be expected – but only over a period of time.
Our experts support the US defense secretary Donald Rumsfeld’s gloomy assessment as more realistic than the president’s optimism. Sunday, June 26, two days before the Bush keynote speech at For Brag, Rumsfeld remarked that insurgencies tend to go on for six, eight, 10, 12 years. He reflected the grim testimony US Middle East commander Gen John Abizaid offered the Senate’s Armed Services Committee when he reported that the Iraqi insurgency was still running with the same intensity and foreign fighters joining the war at the same level as six months ago.
DEBKAfile’s Iraq experts add three points to bolster these estimates:
1. While Allawi has been in contact with Sunni figures one way or another for a year, starting during his term as prime minister, the level of insurgent attacks has not been affected. Their leaders have found they can keep shooting and talking at the same time.
2. All the Bush administration’s efforts to topple the Assad regime and create a new political environment in Damascus that would stem the flow of Arab aid to Iraq are turning into long-term endeavors. Results could take months or even years and meanwhile the Syrian lifeline to the Iraqi insurgency is functioning full blast.
3. The Baghdad administration’s conduct of state affairs is increasingly detrimental to Sunni Arab interests. The Kurds and the Shiites who dominate the government are progressively expanding self-rule in their respective territories in ways that constrict the Sunni region around Baghdad, leave them with sparse crumbs of the country’s oil resources, and no access to the sea or Europe.
It sounds like he is keeping communications open, anyway, which is good. It is also good to see we have good support from Egypt and Jordan here.
I have also been happy to catch references to Iraqi tanks in the media (connected with their infantry.) I have been pushing for this for a long time. We need more Iraqi tanks, Iraqi artillery, and some limited Iraqi air support too. This will boost their confidence and move them forward in their ability to take over.
There is obviously some theoretical risk of attack on Americans by terrorists who infiltrate into the Iraqi army, but that can be minimized by careful vetting. There is no way around it, we cannot give the Iraqis the power to confront the terrorists without making them dangerous in general. I think we should have more empahisis on arming the Iraqis more heavily now, and move away from this exclusive emphasis on developing infrantry prowess.
The other thing we need to do is give the Iraqis the green light to start kicking the media out of the country. The Iraqi armed forces cannot perform as perfectly as the US armed forces, and there will be some ancillary civilian casualties, especailly since the terrorists plan it that way. The Iraqis cannot succeed with TV cameras there and the TV cameras need to be removed. We should make it clear we have no objection to this and it is their sovereign right.
In addition, we need to beef up Iraqi intelligence immediatley. I think we should be brutally honest here and admit that our own intelligence service (CIA) is faulty and in the middle of a major housecleaning. British intelligence (MI6) is far superior to ours and should be given the job of training the Iraqis. In addition, British intelligence, as well as thier special forces (such as SAS) has a successful, mult-decade experience of dealing with the IRA terrorists and so can transfer experience to help with Iraqi terror.
Uh, maybe because we're winning?
Why would a jewish news site know all this first?
By not doing so, he is allying himself with the enemy and acting as a state sponsor to them.
A couple of years back, we beat the unbeatable Afghans by allying ourselves with them; we helped the Afghans defeat their enemies.
This is how we do it in Iraq, by allying ourselves with the Iraqis. With this in mind, its possible to look back and find ways we might have done it better, but the fact remains that this is what we have to do, this is what we are doing, and step by step we are getting there.
We train their people, attach our people to work with them shoulder to shoulder, but we make it their war, which we help them win.
Oh, and start planning to take Assad down hard.
"Why would a jewish news site know all this first?"
First, I have to say its not exactly a "news" site. While their accuracy seems good to me, and I beleive they are being as accurate as they can be, the site includes speculation.
Secondly, while the Israelis are indeed "Jewish", its a bit naive to think they focus on "Jewish" affairs and hence don't know much about "Moslems". Their very survival depends on the highest possible level of knowlege of all things Arab.
Alawi is a good man and I have no doubt that he'll eventually be the President of Iraq.
The other thing that really gave me a laugh was the comment about Bush waffleing. Anyone who believes that has a real problem.
ya wanna make an omlette....
Sorry, they may care about what happens in Arab lands, but why would Arabs talk to them first and not, say a more neutral or pro-Palestinian source?
Yeah, I used to visit there often, but about 90% of their info was wrong. The only things they got right were stories that had already been reported on other agencies. Eventually, i just gave up on them.
Getting late and the eyes become bleary, and I will probably hit the sack soon. But a few things perhaps.
1). We are starting to train and supposedly will equipe the new Iraqi Airforce,with choppers, type yet to be named.
In addition as you probably are aware, we also are training a new Iraqi navy to protect their port areas.
2). Yes tanks such as the T55 that are still in operational form are now being used and we have transfered 7 tonner types vehicles to them to be used to transport men and equipment during some of their independent operations. I can envision more of their equipment that still exists will
be put back in service as we build them up.
A lite note: they sure as shit still have at least a 100,00 tons of ordnance we have not found and destroyed. And for all we know a lot may be carefully guarded at this point, say mortar, so that when they are ready for them, they will be made available.
3). Soon according to an article I just read, sorry don't have link, the Iraqi army shall be in control of Mosul area. Eventually allowing for our troops to relocate elsewhere as required, perhaps move a bit west to beef up area in northern Al Anbar below Turkish/Syrian border areas.
4). America has forked over a lot of bucks recently to Egypt as Egypt promised to be a honest broker in the Israeli/Palestinian negotiations.
5). Bashar Assad is shaking in his boots, and plays games because he has no options left. Perhaps he is trying to avoid a bullet in the head from one of his secret police croonies. He has face on humiliation after another for the past some ten years. His wits are running out. As a few folks at this forum who claim intimate knowledge about real allegiances and troop strenghts of the Syrian army have indicated, they may go down real quick if we decided to start targeted the camps mentioned here, amoung other things with cruise missiles. And we really don't know how firm and threatening our DoS and military advisors that interface with Syria may encompass. For all we know they may at this point be informed "really do better or expect some un-pleasant surprises". But of course it is a two edge sword. If Assad falls, Syria turns into a real nut house. Absolutely no control of who does what and who moves where at will. I think the POTUS wants this weak dictator to stay in power but start better eliminating the foreign inflow of goons into Iraq. Assad keeps belly aching they are doing all they can do. So keep applying the pressure.
6). No new news concerning Jordian in my opinion. Dekab has said nothing we did not already know.
7) I totally disagree with what Debka says about the insurgency gaining strenght. There are just to many articles that have been emerging in the past two months that indicated the opposite. We have severly damaged Abu Mussab Al Zarqawi's chain of command. He is on the run. We know this. As how many thousands of Saddamist and intermixed foreign terrorist are gathered up in these many current Army,Marine,Iraqi, and joint operations in which all there work as one, we continue to degrade their ability to build a new ground based, assuming hundreds a month are no longer getting through the newly border check points etc..
The borders are being better patrolled, and more now trained Iraqi security police are being put into place, again, freeing up our Army and Marines to plan and execute additional operations in both Al Anbar and the northern provinces downward into the Sunni Triangle and Triangle of Death AO. It must be noticed, our Marines continue one operation after another between roughtly Ar Ramadi northward along both sides of the Euphrates River to Al Quam area, continuing to round up more Ali Babba and kill em when they try to run or fight.
If this insurgency was so powerfull and well lead we should see literally hundreds of car suicide attacks every week. Hundreds of suicide goons running into crowds and into our humvees and convoys, checkpoints etc., with bombs strapped to their bodies, and platoon size or even company size insurgents attacking our patrols etc.. We see none of this.
What we do see is the continued hit and miss occasional suicide car bomb attacks and find terrorist killing and beating Iraqis as their towns are taken over. Lastly, DEBKA has been watching to much American L/MSM, and their brains are fried.
8). Thanks for the post and your analysis.
Exactly! The President gets the real reports about the war, not the left wing propaganda the media puts out for the benefit of their Marxist buddies in the Democrat arena.
"Sorry, they may care about what happens in Arab lands, but why would Arabs talk to them first and not, say a more neutral or pro-Palestinian source?"
No one in the Arab world has a site like the Debka Files, any more than they have a site like Free Republic (as far as I know). They don't have freedom of speech.
But CNN has a site, and the Guardian has a site. Why not report it there? Or the London Times?
"Yeah, I used to visit there often, but about 90% of their info was wrong."
Thanks for the feedback, which I have heard before on Strategy Page. Debka Files looks good to me, I suppose because I don't know enough to refute them. But if its bad info, I should "kick the habit". I suppose they are clever enough not to make it obviously wrong to a certain group of readers.
"We are starting to train and supposedly will equipe the new Iraqi Airforce,with choppers, type yet to be named."
Extremely good news and glad to hear it.
"Soon according to an article I just read, sorry don't have link, the Iraqi army shall be in control of Mosul area."
Also very encouraging.
"America has forked over a lot of bucks recently to Egypt as Egypt promised to be a honest broker in the Israeli/Palestinian negotiations."
I've noticed they've committed to keeping order in Gaza, apparently. I hope this works, especially being Jewish myself.
"Bashar Assad is shaking in his boots,"
His father was a horror, but he was strong. This guy is weak.
"If this insurgency was so powerfull and well lead we should see ... platoon size or even company size insurgents attacking our patrols etc.."
Appreciate your insight. Might the recent attacks be considered analogous to the Tet Offensive, in terms of the media analogy? The Tet Offensive was supposed to spark a Communist revolution in Vietnam. But the revolution never happened. Communist forces were largely destroyed in the offensive. But it won the war anyway, due to the media effect.
This phase, according to your analysis, indicates weakness in the terrorists. But they win anyway, if they start the American public on the path of retreat.
"Thanks for the post and your analysis."
Glad you liked it.
"But CNN has a site, and the Guardian has a site."
As others have indicated, Debka Files is quite possibly making some of it up. I find the site interesting, but will have to take the negative feedback on the site into consideration. I haven't used them that much yet, but if I start seeing inaccuracies, I will discontinue reading them. So far, I am not sure.
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