Posted on 06/28/2005 12:29:22 PM PDT by Willie Green
For education and discussion only. Not for commercial use.
WASHINGTON - Of all the false promises made by supporters of the Central America Free Trade Agreement, none is more laughable than the claim that U.S. farmers and ranchers will win big-time.
U.S. Agriculture Secretary Mike Johanns predicts that under the agreement, which Congress could vote on soon, CAFTA could well double sales of U.S. farm products to the six other signatories - Costa Rica, the Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras and Nicaragua.
American Farm Bureau Federation President Bob Stallman calls CAFTA "a golden opportunity to balance the scales of trade access."
Either these leaders don't know anything about the CAFTA region or they haven't read the agreement.
Appearances deceiving
At first glance, the CAFTA market does look mildly promising. Its 44 million population is roughly equal to that of California and New Jersey combined. And since the CAFTA-6 already enjoy duty-free access to most of the American agricultural market, while maintaining high ag tariffs of its own, the agreement does seem to help U.S. producers the most.
Yet appearances in this case are deeply deceiving. First, fully half of the region's potential consumers earns less than $2 a day, and most of the rest are faring scarcely better.
That's why the CAFTA-6 economies combined only equal that of New Haven, Conn., about $85 billion as of 2002, when the most recent cross-national comparisons can be made. How can economies this tiny and impoverished possibly be major growth drivers for the $12 trillion U.S. economy?
Moreover, many of the agriculture lobby's predictions of big U.S. export increases are based on irrelevant economic figures. They judge the size of the CAFTA-6 economies according to their ability to buy goods that are locally produced and thus locally priced.
These figures say absolutely nothing about the ability of these countries to afford U.S.-made products, which will be much more expensive.
Just as bad, American diplomats have done a terrible job in negotiating CAFTA for U.S. farmers and ranchers. Most of the Central American tariffs on U.S. agricultural goods will be phased out over periods of five to 20 years.
Savvy students of American politics know that when U.S. politicians make promises with long payoffs - such as balancing the budget - those promises generally are worthless.
After all, most of the promise makers will be long gone from public life by that time, and so many circumstances can change so dramatically. Why do American negotiators put such trust in similar promises from foreign governments?
Moreover, since the Bush administration and CAFTA's corporate supporters also have been heavily promoting the deal as a foreign-aid program for Central America, expect pressure to grant these countries extensions on maintaining their tariffs.
Promises, promises
Finally, the promises of exciting new markets and booming agricultural exports being made to sell CAFTA are the same promises that have been made to American farmers and ranchers to sell NAFTA and the dozens of other free trade agreements America has reached since the early 1990s.
Yet few of these promises have materialized, even as the U.S. market has been opened wider and wider to imports. Largely as a result, the U.S. Agriculture Department itself predicts that America's longstanding agricultural trade surplus is likely to vanish this year.
According to University of Tennessee economist Daryll Ray, this surplus averaged $16 billion annually during the 1980s.
Meanwhile, the guarantee of unfettered access to American consumers for agriculture in Central America is bound to attract U.S. agribusiness investment to the region.
Boost for Central America
All this capital and technology only can boost Central America's ag competitiveness and exports to the United States, just as multinational manufacturing investment in China and elsewhere in the Third World has helped turned these regions into export powerhouses that have devastated domestic industries.
Small wonder that the agricultural community, which solidly backed most of our recent trade deals, is deeply divided on CAFTA.
CAFTA's impact on American agriculture, therefore, surely will be the same as its impact on American industry with barely detectable export growth, a major import boom, lost markets and lost jobs.
With its subpar growth and soaring trade deficits and international debts, CAFTA is the last thing the U.S. economy - or American agriculture - needs right now.
ping
But isn't that capitalism as so many here think?
"Of all the false promises made by supporters of the Central America Free Trade Agreement, none is more laughable than the claim that U.S. farmers and ranchers will win big-time."==================================
only on the surface.
Under the facade it is semi slave labor being sold as fair trade.
I think the argument is being mis-stated. I am not saying that I am for CAFTA, but my-in laws who are cotton farmers tell me that the cotton lobby seems to think it will benefit from CAFTA as CAFTA will cause textile production to shift on the margin from China to Latin America, causing a marginal demand shift from cotton grown in China and India to cotton grown in Brazil and the US.
Just mention Wal-Mart and see what you get. In my pea brain, it makes no difference if we buy our product from China or export our jobs to India. I think it is unAmerican, we have no dedication or loyalty to our own country and its citizens. Most think it is capitalism.
Yeah. Those who are accustomed to living in secure, gated communities think it's a great idea.
But for the vast majority of Middle Class Americans, it means a lower, Third World standard of living.
The great leveling of the middle class
"If this article is correct, then what are all these people going to be doing ?"
=======================
Your answer sir . .
North American Plan Aims to Ease Cross-Border Movement, Enhance Security (People and Goods)
PING to you "Free Traitors".
So you have to ask - are we going to be subsidizing all the South/Central American farmers to NOT grow crops, same as we subsidize our own farmers ?
What will change in American farm supports as a result of CAFTA ? I can only assume taxpayers will be forking out more with CAFTA.
I have to wonder ... do we get to export the illegal aliens along with the farm jobs?
I don't think any actual citizens work at these jobs anymore so I guess I really don't care much what happens to the jobs or the industry creating them.
Boy it's nice to have some company. Free Trade has become a religion and it's supporters talk in circles.
Yeah, I sure long for the good old days when that window air conditioner I just got for my daughter for $89 last night to cost $350 Made in USA
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.