I'd be happy to see Thomas in the Chief Justice's chair as a second choice after Scalia (who I think deserves the shot and is the older man, and the best mind on the Court), and Brown as a new Associate Justice (even though she is a bit inexperienced on the bench yet, and another originalist or strict-constructionist appeals-court judge or state supreme-court justice might be a better choice), but I think Bush has already shown his hand.
There was a story in our local paper this week to the effect that Bush had his aides checking out appeals court judges for the top spot, and that he had his new AG, Gonzalez, on the list -- but on a sheet of paper all to himself. The thinking seemed to be that Bush will walk right past Scalia and Thomas in order to put a Hispanic in the Chief Justice's job.
Now, Gonzalez would be a far weaker choice than either Thomas or Scalia on merit and experience, and weaker than O'Connor, like whom Gonzalez would apparently vote.
Gonzalez IMHO would move the Court to the left. Turned loose with a life appointment as CJ, he might even turn into a Kennedy or a Souter or an Earl Warren, and just run wild.
But I think I see the point, which is that nominating Gonzalez is a Rovian imperative: the Mexicans are swamping the country, both Dims and big GOP contributors want the borders held wide open -- the Dims because they see Mexican-Americans and newly-dipped illegals voting 70-30 Democrat, the big Republicans because they want to crush wages across the board with an endless stream of Malthusian Third-World masses .
Therefore it is imperative that Bush Hispander to the newcomers, and one way to do it is to give them Power, and to be very conspicuous about it -- hence the nomination of Gonzalez, come hell or high water, irrespective of merit or of how he would vote if he got on the Court.
Furthermore -- and here is the really Rovian part -- you can count on the Dims to have a cow if and when Bush puts Gonzalez up, and his nomination might even fail. If so, at least Bush gets credit among the Chicanos for having tried to put the son of an illegal immigrant on the Supreme Court.
It's all about the votes. That means Scalia and Thomas have to take a number. It also means that Bush is turning his back on the entire Republican Party, except for the big employers, and that his mandate comes from perhaps 100,000 people at the top of the economic pyramid who think they can control things no matter how many Mexicans end up voting in U.S. elections, with or without citizenship, if only they can work up to a 50-50 split of the Mexican vote. They're already getting about 50% of the Central American and South American vote, and a majority of the Cubanos down in Florida.
As for the consequences for the rest of us, they don't care. Or, to be blunt about it, they see it as imperative that they make things worse for the rest of us, and they know how to get it done.
Personally, by the way, and absent any other considerations, I think it would make more sense for Bush to fill Chief Justice Rehnquist's position with a sitting Justice, and then nominate his young AG for an Associate position. But the newspaper article was clear, that the interviews and backgrounding now going on are for the Chief Justice's job. It would appear that nothing less will satisfy the President, than that he install the son of an illegal immigrant as the jefe juez of the entire Judicial Branch of the United States Government.
Try wrapping your minds around that.
A coherent and intelligent analysis. However, I must say I disagree with a few of your premises. First, I think immigration to this country is a boom and benefits everyone (as it always has). Secondly, I think what is good for the top 100,000 is good for the rest of us and vice versa. When you start dividing people by class and viewing policy that way it is a slippery slope down to teh ash heap ofliberalism.
I agree with your assessment on Alberto Gonzalez (as somewhat of a RINO) and also agree that Bush is most likely to pick him for an open SCOTUS position, perhaps chief SCOTUS. I don't think this would be a disaster and yea there is a lot of politics to it. If there are two openings and we get Alberto and Janice Rogers, I'll be more than happy.
I would like to see the president bring back Miguel Estrada as a nominee for associate justice at the first opportunity. ME was my preference over Gonzales, but I am not as concerned about Gonzales as some of your comments indicate you may be. I think he would be better than O'Connor has been, but most of that is based on hope rather than certainty.