What's wrong with nuclear? Is Jane Fonda to rule our lives forever?
Posted on 06/25/2005 9:27:12 AM PDT by Dog Gone
WASHINGTON - Former CIA Director Robert Gates sighs deeply as he pores over reports of growing unrest in Nigeria. Many Americans can't find the African nation on a map, but Gates knows that it's America's fifth-largest oil supplier and one that provides the light, sweet crude U.S. refiners prefer.
It's 11 days before Christmas 2005, and the turmoil is preventing about 600,000 barrels of oil per day from reaching the world oil market, which was already drum-tight.
Gates, functioning as the top national security adviser to the president, convenes the Cabinet to discuss the implications of Nigeria's spreading religious and ethnic unrest for the U.S. economy.
Should U.S. troops be sent to restore order? Should America draw down its strategic oil reserves to stabilize soaring gasoline prices?
Cabinet officials agree that drawing down the reserves might signal weakness. They recommend that the president simply announce his willingness to do so if necessary.
The economic effects of unrest in faraway Nigeria are immediate. Crude oil prices soar above $80 a barrel. June's then-record $60 a barrel is a distant memory. A gallon of unleaded gas now costs $3.31. Americans shell out $75 to fill a midsized SUV.
If all this sounds like a Hollywood drama, it's not. These scenarios unfolded in a simulated oil shock wave that took place Thursday in Washington. Two former CIA directors and several other former top policymakers participated to draw attention to America's need to reduce its dependence on oil, especially foreign oil.
Fast-forward to Jan. 19, 2006. A blast rips through Saudi Arabia's Haradh natural-gas plant. Simultaneously, al Qaida terrorists seize a tanker at Alaska's Port of Valdez and crash it, igniting a massive fire that sweeps across oil terminals. Crude oil spikes to $120 a barrel, and the U.S. economy reels. Gas prices hit $4.74 a gallon.
Gates convenes the Cabinet again.
Homeland Security chief James Woolsey, who ran the CIA from 1993 to 1995, argues that a special energy czar is needed with broad powers to bypass the bureaucracy and impose offshore oil drilling and construction of refineries.
That won't help now, though, or resolve any short-term issues, counters Gene Sperling, who was President Clinton's national economic adviser.
The Cabinet can't agree on even the simplest short-term solutions. There aren't many options beyond encouraging car pools and lowering thermostats.
There's no infrastructure in place to deliver alternative fuels such as ethanol or diesel made from soybeans.
Fast-forward again, to June 23, 2006. Emboldened Saudi insurgents attack foreign oil workers, killing hundreds.
An evacuation follows from the world's pivotal oil producer, the one country that could be counted on to boost production during global supply shortages.
A take-charge guy with a Texas accent who led the CIA from 1991 to 1993, Gates calls yet another war-room meeting. Global recession looms. The world economy turns on cheap oil. Without oil workers, how will Saudi Arabia meet production targets and quench the thirst of America, China and India?
Oil prices have reached an unthinkable $150 a barrel. In Philadelphia, Miami and Kansas City, Mo., gas prices reach $5.74 a gallon. Now it takes $121 to fill that midsized SUV.
This year the world is consuming about 84 million barrels of oil a day. America alone guzzles about 20.8 million barrels a day. Experts think oil-producing nations have only 1.5 million barrels a day or less of unused production capacity right now. A disruption anywhere could cause market panic and spiking prices. That's largely why oil and gasoline prices are so high right now.
Saudi Arabia and other countries are trying to increase production, but that won't help much before next year. Any hiccup in production, delivery or refining could cause disaster.
"A million or a million and a half barrels of oil a day off the market is a very realistic kind of scenario. You can think of a dozen different countries around the world ... where you can see that happening. Or even a natural disaster could do that," Gates said in an interview.
"It was striking that by taking such small amounts off the market, you could have such dramatic impact" on world oil prices, said Robbie Diamond, the president of Securing America's Future Energy.
Richard Haass was a top adviser to former Secretary of State Colin Powell until 2003. The simulation taught him how little influence policymakers would have in reversing an oil shock wave.
"I think where most of the work has to happen now, both intellectually and politically, is on demand reduction," Haass said.
How long will it take, in light of the possibilities that crude oil prices may rise sharply, to get some alternative sources (oil shale, coal gasification, nuclear power, reclamation of Methane Hydrate from the ocean bottom, conversion of biomass directly to petroleum, REAL conservation measures) on line and factored into our calculations for economic growth?
I sense great opportunities here....
The bigger problem is having the arabs saturate their oil-fields with wired dirty-bombs... and then stating that they will not sell us any more.
The bigger problem is having the arabs saturate their oil-fields with wired dirty-bombs... and then stating that they will not sell us any more.
I'd guess about 20 years.
Think tanks are fun. They don't necessarily produce results of genius.
What's wrong with nuclear? Is Jane Fonda to rule our lives forever?
They fail to mention that most US refineries are converting their systems to handle the heavy 'not-so-sweet' crude from Canadial oil sands and the such. Alberta's deposits are the second latgest in the world with 175 billion barrels reserves.
yeah??? how bout this one, China buys Unical and at a strategic time stops selling oil to the USA and or something happens to all it's refineries here in the USA at the same time...
There is no doubt, though, that China covets control over Unocal's asian production.
so it's an oil producer not refinery but it still sells gas or are the gas stations gone too?
If only we had a leader who was courageous and intelligent enough to understand one way to guarantee a steady supply of oil would be to stabilize that area of the world where the most oil is. If only we had a leader like........wait a
minute- we do!
There are many retailers who don't have refineries, and don't even produce any oil. Conversely, there are thousands of producers who don't have refineries or retail outlets.
Many of the refineries are owned by companies that neither find oil, nor sell gasoline at the retail level.
Confusing enough?
so their overseas production stays there or does any of it make back to the states???
i believe in the stock market but i think oil futures should be held to no more than thirty days advance and take most of the fear/inflation out of the going price
That doesn't answer the question of where their oil is sold. The domestic production is sold here, of course, but Unocal no longer has a big US presence. 1% of domestic production.
Nearly all is in southeast asia. I don't know how much reaches America. My guess is not much, if any.
Take a look at Changing World Technologies. I really hope this process is viable on a large scale-- sounds exactly like what we need today!
That is a valid point. What we and the world needs is far more refining capabilities for 'sour' crude oil, which is more money in terms of refining costs but would open up additional oil markets other then from our enemies in the unstable world of Islamic oil exporters.
Back to Nigeria, her main export crudes are Bonny Light (37·) and Forcados (31·). About 65% of Nigeria’s oil is above 35·API with a very low sulphur content. Nigeria’s OPEC quota is 1.89 million bbl/d. Plus the fact the geographic procsimity in terms of supertanker travel from Nigeria to American energy ports is far less then Gulf based products.
In January 2005 Oil and Gas Journal estimated that Nigeria contains proven oil reserves totaling 35.2 billion barrels. The Nigerian government plans to expand its proven reserves to 40 billion barrels by 2010. Most of this is produced from the prolific Niger River Delta. Despite problems associated with ethnic unrest, border disputes and government funding, Nigeria’s wealth of oil makes it most attractive to the major oil-multinationals, most of whom are represented in Nigeria, with the major foreign stakeholder being Shell.
In January 2005 Oil and Gas Journal estimated that Nigeria contains 176 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of proven natural gas reserves mainly from onshore fields and the swampy areas of the Niger River Delta. Due, mainly, to the lack of a gas infrastructure, 75% of associated gas is flared and 12% re-injected. Nigeria has set a target of zero flare by 2010 and is providing incentives for the production and use of gas. The government also plans to raise earnings from natural gas exports to 50 percent of oil revenues by 2010.
A petroleum engineer wrote the following:
'To handle sour, a refinery must install additional equipments that cost a few hundred million dollars more. With similar amount of invest, a sweet crude refinery can increase capacity by close to 50%. This to show you how much more costly it is to built a sour refinery. Sweet crude refineries can easily exceed their listed max production with quick modifications. Sour crude refineries are less able to due to bottlenecks. It takes at 12-24months to get new equipment to expand sour crude refining capacity as of beginning this year.'
Heavy Oil Upgrading with Water via Super Critical Partial Oxidation
thankxlot... 8^)
You can't even build roads on federal land..
Only minute parts of Alaska can even be searched let alone drilled.. for oil.. natural gas.. etc..
Most of Alaska lies on coal seams and Alaska is as big as the western United States..
Theres suspected oil in Alaska NOBODY even knows about yet..
Its no mystery WHY this is not done though.. By the way the largest deposit of copper/gold ever found on earth has been found there.. but the liberals have tied it up in the courts..
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