McCain Would Trounce Hillary in ’08 Match-up (New Zogby Poll)

Zogby ^ | 6/23/05

[areafiftyone]

Arizona Senator John McCain would overwhelmingly defeat New York Senator and former First Lady Hillary Rodham Clinton in a theoretical 2008 presidential match-up, a new Zogby America poll reveals.

The survey also shows that in a re-match of the 2004 election, Americans would now vote in equal numbers for Democrat John Kerry and President George W. Bush, while President Bush’s approval rating has plummeted to 44%—the lowest numbers of his presidency.  The poll also found fewer than two-in-five (39%) voters approve of President Bush’s handling of the Iraq war.

The Zogby America survey of 1000 likely voters, conducted from June 20 through 22, 2005, has a margin of error of +/-3.2 percentage points. 

The same survey finds Congress’ job rating even lower, with just one-in-four likely voters (26%) rating the legislature favorably—and just 2% saying it is doing an excellent job.

The survey finds that both senators far outdistance their nearest competition for their parties’ nominations—but in a head-to-head match-up, the Arizona Republican bests the New York Democrat by 19 points, leading her 54% to 35%.  McCain would also defeat Massachusetts Senator—and former Democratic presidential candidate—John Kerry by a full 20 points, 55% to 35%.

McCain has majority support in every single geographic region of the country.  But more telling may be the fact that, even in the states carried by Kerry in 2004, McCain comes out comfortably on top—leading Clinton by 49 to 38% and Kerry by 50% to 40%.  Among the states carried by President Bush, the margin is even wider, giving McCain a 58% to 33% lead over Clinton and 59% to 32% lead over Kerry.

McCain leads with most demographics, though Clinton would best him narrowly among Hispanic voters (45% to 38%) and would win African Americans by 80% to 19%.  But that 19% would be the highest vote tally for a Republican with African Americans in decades. McCain leads Clinton with every age group except voters under 30, where the two are in a dead heat.

President Bush’s Job Approval Plunges to Historic Lows

The drop in President Bush’s approval rating puts him at the lowest numbers since his presidency began.  The Zogby America survey has been conducted on a regular basis throughout Bush’s two terms.

	Positive	Excellent	Good	Negative	Fair	Poor
6-22-05	44	15	29	56	22	34
5-25-05	46	18	28	53	23	30
4-18-05	46	19	27	53	23	30
2-25-05	47	21	26	53	22	31
2-14-05	50	24	26	50	18	32
1-21-05	49	21	28	51	22	29
11-16-04	51	23	28	49	18	31
9-20-04	47	18	29	52	20	32
6-05-04	46	19	27	55	22	33
1-20-04	49	19	30	50	27	23
9-25-03	50	22	28	50	23	27
6-10-03	58	27	31	41	22	19
9-25-02	64	26	38	36	21	15
6-14-02	70	33	37	30	20	10
1-7-02	80	45	35	19	15	4

6-22-05	Overall	Red states	Blue states
Excellent	15	17	14
Good	29	31	25
Positive	44	48	39
Fair	22	22	21
Poor	34	29	41
Negative	56	51	62
Not sure	0	1	0

Zogby International also continues to track the President’s performance in both the “Red States” which he carried in the 2004 election and the “Blue States” carried by Senator John Kerry, the Massachusetts Democrat Bush defeated last fall.  Just one month ago, Bush’s job performance was supported by a 51% majority in the Red States, but now has slumped to 48%.  And in the Blue States, the President has dropped one point from 40% in May to 39% in the latest poll.

Kerry, Bush Would Now Tie in Election

Vote Again for Bush	45
Vote Again for Kerry	43
Vote Again for Third Party	3
Switch to Kerry Vote	2
Switch to Bush Vote	0
Switch to Third Party Vote	2
Would Not Vote	2

The most significant development in the poll may be that Americans now say they would vote for Senator Kerry and President Bush in equal numbers if last November’s election were re-held.  The new poll finds 45% say they would vote for Bush and 45% say they would now vote for his vanquished 2004 opponent.  Although before rounding Bush holds a very slight lead, the two are, for the first time since the November election, back into a statistical dead heat.

The drop in Bush’s support comes against a backdrop of lost momentum in the Senate, where much of the President’s agenda—including the nomination of U.N. Ambassador-designate John Bolton—is stalled. 

President’s Job Approval in Negative Territory on Host of Issues

President’s Handling of Issue	Positive	Excellent	Good	Negative	Fair	Poor	Not sure
War on Terrorism	49	20	29	50	24	26	1
War in Iraq	39	13	26	61	15	46	0
Taxes	36	13	23	62	28	34	2
Foreign Policy	36	10	26	61	26	35	3
Jobs and the economy	35	9	26	65	28	37	1
Education	33	7	26	64	34	30	3
Environment	30	6	24	66	29	37	5
Social Security and Medicare	27	7	20	69	23	46	4

President Bush has slipped into negative territory on his handling of a number of issues surrounding his presidency.  While the nation is split on his handling of the War on Terrorism, the president’s support has dropped into negative territory on a number of other issues, from his anemic numbers on the Iraq War to his dismal ratings on Social Security and Medicare—an area he began his second term vowing to reform.

Majority Now Says Nation on Wrong Track

6-22-05	Overall	Red states	Blue states
Right Track	43	48	35
Wrong Direction	53	48	60
Not sure	5	4	5

The number of Americans who now say the nation is on the wrong track continues to climb as well, with 53% now saying the nation is heading in the wrong direction.  Just one month ago, that number was at 50%.  Much of this increase comes from a shift among Americans who, in May, were undecided about the nation’s direction now saying the nation is on the wrong track.  While both Red Staters and Blue Staters are both more pessimistic than a month ago, the belief the country is heading in the wrong direction is particularly strong in the Blue States, where just one-in-three (35%) say the nation is on the right track.

Congress Rates Very Unfavorably

6-22-05	Overall	Red states	Blue states
Excellent	2	2	2
Good	24	28	19
Positive	26	30	20
Fair	47	47	47
Poor	24	22	26
Negative	71	69	73
Not sure	4	2	6

The poll finds Congress rated even less favorably than the President, with just one-in-four Americans holding a favorable impression of the co-equal branch of government’s job performance.  Seven-in-ten American voters, meanwhile, view Congress in negative terms, with half of all likely voters (47%) terming Congress’ job performance “fair.”  The disapproval of Congress crosses the Red-Blue divide, with voters in both areas holding a negative view of the legislature—though Red Staters are slightly more favorable to the Republican-controlled body. 

In a sign of voter dissatisfaction with Congress, a “generic ballot” question that asks voters which party’s candidate they would select for Congress finds the minority Democrats polling at 38% while the majority Republicans take 33%.  A full one-in-five (20%) say they are not sure or will not vote in the mid-term Congressional elections next fall.      

Zogby International conducted interviews of 1000 likely voters chosen at random nationwide. All calls were made from Zogby International headquarters in Utica, N.Y., from June 20 to 22, 2005. The margin of error is +/- 3.2 percentage points. Slight weights were added to region, party, age, race, religion, and gender to more accurately reflect the voting population. Margins of error are higher in sub-groups.

[My2Cents]

It amazes me (but I'm learning not to be surprised by it) that numerous Freepers will castigate John McCain for whatever reason, saying they will never vote for him, and in the same breath talk about how Hillary would get tough on illegal immigration. This is the kind of numbskullery we have to contend with in our corner of the political world.

[ClancyJ]

Does not matter - McCain is not going to get the nomination.

He is a traitor in our midst and no way will any talking change my mind. I will never vote for McCain. And, you know, I will bet he was just as two-faced while a prisoner of war as he is now.

[My2Cents]

These two have name recognition. There's time for others to gain it.

The others better start soon.

[Jenya]

Dislike McPain intensely; however, anyone but Hillary.

[TommyDale]

I don't think very many Freepers would vote for McCain. The election of 2008 will never see McCain as a Republican nominee. While we also consider Hillary Rodham dangerous, the Republicans better look long and hard at who we nominate, because a strong 3rd party candidate will help elect the witch.

[Betaille]

"Freepers will castigate John McCain for whatever reason, saying they will never vote for him, and in the same breath talk about how Hillary would get tough on illegal immigration."

Anybody who says Hillary would get tough on illegal immigration is probably a troll. However I'm not so sure I'd vote for McCain. I have no interest in being responsible for a 2 liberal party duopoly. I also have no interest in taking responsibility for having voted for liberal policies. I defend voting for Dubya because I agree with his stance in the War on Terror, I agree with his tax cuts, and I agree with the Federal Marriage Amendement. I would have no way to defend voting for McCain.

[Williams]

Hilary would be a horrible presidency and I would certainly vote for McCain. I have doubts about him as president as well.

But regarding the poll, if McCain thinks he got elbowed by Karl Rove, wait until the Clintondroids take a pic axe to his skull. The media is just setting McCain up.

Everyone is conveniently forgetting that McCain has malignant melanoma which has recurred and I guarantee this health issue will be trotted out AFTER he is nominated.

[lilylangtree]

RINO 7 McCain v. Clintoon--Ugh! Neither are worth my vote. Sitting election out.

[Seajay]

Geez everyone - get a life ...

This administration has been in office 3 days over 6 months. And we are all bleating about '08. My God, are we getting into a perpetual election cycle???

[TommyDale]

"In Alabama...McCain is considered a joke."

Alabama is not unique. McCain is considered a joke and a RINO in the other 49 states as well! In North Carolina, he may as well save his breath. If he thinks it got dirty in South Carolina in 2000, "he ain't seen nothin' yet!"

[Betaille]

"In Alabama...McCain is considered a joke. He can't carry even 30 percent of the Republicans in the state. I think this ought to be the message to the Republicans...if you want to win...you better clear up your message throughout the south and sell us on your words."

Good point, but I think that we need a candidate who can win outside the south as well (which we haven't had for a while). It's important that we have a candidate that can unify the various factions of conservatism (reunite the Reagan coalition). McCain will not do that.

[My2Cents]

I agree. The GOP bench isn't thin on quality people; only thin on quality people that anyone has heard of. This is a concern. Plus, while I don't believe the polling results on Bush and Iraq, I do sense that many people are getting weary of the status quo. I hestitate to call it "Bush Fatigue," but there's an element of that which will work against any Republican in '08.

[Betaille]

"RINO 7 McCain v. Clintoon--Ugh! Neither are worth my vote. Sitting election out."

Never sit out an election, vote for a 3rd party as a protest. If conservatives get out of the habit of voting, it will be very hard to come back since we'd be decimated at the congressional level.

[ZULU]

So why does Zogby want McCain to run??

If McCain gets elected, he is a philosophical clone of Hillery.

Furthermore, hjis treachery and failure to support the President has, if anything, contributed to the public's dissatisfaction with Bush at present.

As far as those poll numbers go with respect to Bush versus Kerry, they look pretty much the same before Bush cleaned Kerry's clock.

This is ONE conservative who will NEVER give his vote to that anti-gun, anti-First Amendment, egomaniacal, perfidious Judas John McCain.

I'd rather have Hillery beat him. Then perhaps she could be replaced in four years with a "real" Republican.

Besides, all of this is premature as the election is three years away.

[Betaille]

"there's an element of that which will work against any Republican in '08."

That exists in every election year. Democrats always rally around their candidate come election year. Also, if you think McCains positive press coverage would continue when he became the Republican Nominee you're insane. They would do a total 180 on him the day after he clinched the nomination.

[TommyDale]

"I DO NOT want Hillary Clinton in charge of our Military or Bubba roaming around the White House again!"

Don't worry, it will never happen. I would support a military coup in this case.

[TommyDale]

"If McCain gets elected, he is a philosophical clone of Hillery."

Is McCain a lesbian, too?

[My2Cents]

How old will McCain be in '08? He was born in 1936, and I'm horrible with math, but that would make him over 70 -- making him our oldest president. Not good for someone who's had a reoccurance of cancer.

[My2Cents]

Is McCain a lesbian, too?

No problem with that. My "inner female side" is lesbian too.

[joylyn]

McCain would make a great Democratic candidate.