McCain Would Trounce Hillary in ’08 Match-up (New Zogby Poll)

Zogby ^ | 6/23/05

[areafiftyone]

Arizona Senator John McCain would overwhelmingly defeat New York Senator and former First Lady Hillary Rodham Clinton in a theoretical 2008 presidential match-up, a new Zogby America poll reveals.

The survey also shows that in a re-match of the 2004 election, Americans would now vote in equal numbers for Democrat John Kerry and President George W. Bush, while President Bush’s approval rating has plummeted to 44%—the lowest numbers of his presidency.  The poll also found fewer than two-in-five (39%) voters approve of President Bush’s handling of the Iraq war.

The Zogby America survey of 1000 likely voters, conducted from June 20 through 22, 2005, has a margin of error of +/-3.2 percentage points. 

The same survey finds Congress’ job rating even lower, with just one-in-four likely voters (26%) rating the legislature favorably—and just 2% saying it is doing an excellent job.

The survey finds that both senators far outdistance their nearest competition for their parties’ nominations—but in a head-to-head match-up, the Arizona Republican bests the New York Democrat by 19 points, leading her 54% to 35%.  McCain would also defeat Massachusetts Senator—and former Democratic presidential candidate—John Kerry by a full 20 points, 55% to 35%.

McCain has majority support in every single geographic region of the country.  But more telling may be the fact that, even in the states carried by Kerry in 2004, McCain comes out comfortably on top—leading Clinton by 49 to 38% and Kerry by 50% to 40%.  Among the states carried by President Bush, the margin is even wider, giving McCain a 58% to 33% lead over Clinton and 59% to 32% lead over Kerry.

McCain leads with most demographics, though Clinton would best him narrowly among Hispanic voters (45% to 38%) and would win African Americans by 80% to 19%.  But that 19% would be the highest vote tally for a Republican with African Americans in decades. McCain leads Clinton with every age group except voters under 30, where the two are in a dead heat.

President Bush’s Job Approval Plunges to Historic Lows

The drop in President Bush’s approval rating puts him at the lowest numbers since his presidency began.  The Zogby America survey has been conducted on a regular basis throughout Bush’s two terms.

	Positive	Excellent	Good	Negative	Fair	Poor
6-22-05	44	15	29	56	22	34
5-25-05	46	18	28	53	23	30
4-18-05	46	19	27	53	23	30
2-25-05	47	21	26	53	22	31
2-14-05	50	24	26	50	18	32
1-21-05	49	21	28	51	22	29
11-16-04	51	23	28	49	18	31
9-20-04	47	18	29	52	20	32
6-05-04	46	19	27	55	22	33
1-20-04	49	19	30	50	27	23
9-25-03	50	22	28	50	23	27
6-10-03	58	27	31	41	22	19
9-25-02	64	26	38	36	21	15
6-14-02	70	33	37	30	20	10
1-7-02	80	45	35	19	15	4

6-22-05	Overall	Red states	Blue states
Excellent	15	17	14
Good	29	31	25
Positive	44	48	39
Fair	22	22	21
Poor	34	29	41
Negative	56	51	62
Not sure	0	1	0

Zogby International also continues to track the President’s performance in both the “Red States” which he carried in the 2004 election and the “Blue States” carried by Senator John Kerry, the Massachusetts Democrat Bush defeated last fall.  Just one month ago, Bush’s job performance was supported by a 51% majority in the Red States, but now has slumped to 48%.  And in the Blue States, the President has dropped one point from 40% in May to 39% in the latest poll.

Kerry, Bush Would Now Tie in Election

Vote Again for Bush	45
Vote Again for Kerry	43
Vote Again for Third Party	3
Switch to Kerry Vote	2
Switch to Bush Vote	0
Switch to Third Party Vote	2
Would Not Vote	2

The most significant development in the poll may be that Americans now say they would vote for Senator Kerry and President Bush in equal numbers if last November’s election were re-held.  The new poll finds 45% say they would vote for Bush and 45% say they would now vote for his vanquished 2004 opponent.  Although before rounding Bush holds a very slight lead, the two are, for the first time since the November election, back into a statistical dead heat.

The drop in Bush’s support comes against a backdrop of lost momentum in the Senate, where much of the President’s agenda—including the nomination of U.N. Ambassador-designate John Bolton—is stalled. 

President’s Job Approval in Negative Territory on Host of Issues

President’s Handling of Issue	Positive	Excellent	Good	Negative	Fair	Poor	Not sure
War on Terrorism	49	20	29	50	24	26	1
War in Iraq	39	13	26	61	15	46	0
Taxes	36	13	23	62	28	34	2
Foreign Policy	36	10	26	61	26	35	3
Jobs and the economy	35	9	26	65	28	37	1
Education	33	7	26	64	34	30	3
Environment	30	6	24	66	29	37	5
Social Security and Medicare	27	7	20	69	23	46	4

President Bush has slipped into negative territory on his handling of a number of issues surrounding his presidency.  While the nation is split on his handling of the War on Terrorism, the president’s support has dropped into negative territory on a number of other issues, from his anemic numbers on the Iraq War to his dismal ratings on Social Security and Medicare—an area he began his second term vowing to reform.

Majority Now Says Nation on Wrong Track

6-22-05	Overall	Red states	Blue states
Right Track	43	48	35
Wrong Direction	53	48	60
Not sure	5	4	5

The number of Americans who now say the nation is on the wrong track continues to climb as well, with 53% now saying the nation is heading in the wrong direction.  Just one month ago, that number was at 50%.  Much of this increase comes from a shift among Americans who, in May, were undecided about the nation’s direction now saying the nation is on the wrong track.  While both Red Staters and Blue Staters are both more pessimistic than a month ago, the belief the country is heading in the wrong direction is particularly strong in the Blue States, where just one-in-three (35%) say the nation is on the right track.

Congress Rates Very Unfavorably

6-22-05	Overall	Red states	Blue states
Excellent	2	2	2
Good	24	28	19
Positive	26	30	20
Fair	47	47	47
Poor	24	22	26
Negative	71	69	73
Not sure	4	2	6

The poll finds Congress rated even less favorably than the President, with just one-in-four Americans holding a favorable impression of the co-equal branch of government’s job performance.  Seven-in-ten American voters, meanwhile, view Congress in negative terms, with half of all likely voters (47%) terming Congress’ job performance “fair.”  The disapproval of Congress crosses the Red-Blue divide, with voters in both areas holding a negative view of the legislature—though Red Staters are slightly more favorable to the Republican-controlled body. 

In a sign of voter dissatisfaction with Congress, a “generic ballot” question that asks voters which party’s candidate they would select for Congress finds the minority Democrats polling at 38% while the majority Republicans take 33%.  A full one-in-five (20%) say they are not sure or will not vote in the mid-term Congressional elections next fall.      

Zogby International conducted interviews of 1000 likely voters chosen at random nationwide. All calls were made from Zogby International headquarters in Utica, N.Y., from June 20 to 22, 2005. The margin of error is +/- 3.2 percentage points. Slight weights were added to region, party, age, race, religion, and gender to more accurately reflect the voting population. Margins of error are higher in sub-groups.

[MeanWestTexan]

I have, and it is better than whatever Der Furer Hillary would bring us.

[My2Cents]

I don't know. Other than looking like the classical "Stepford Wife," I know nothing about Mrs. McCain.

[NeoCaveman]

I have, and it is better than whatever Der Furer Hillary would bring us.

Trusting Ted Kennedy over Hillary on immigration? I wouldn't. Ted has a track record......

[TBall]

If you say so, but lets put it this way McCain is much more likely to get the "conservative democrat" vote then he is to get my vote.

[Betaille]

"McCain is much more likely to get the "conservative democrat" vote then he is to get my vote."

My point is that he's less likely to get conservative Democrat votes than Dubya. Conservative Republicans get more Democratic votes than Liberal Republicans because they give conservative Democrats a reason to overlook party loyalty. Compare Reagan's performance among Democrats to Ford or Bush 1's.

[MinuteGal]

McQueeg HAS to be stopped in the primary.

Every freeper should start thinking now about running for convention delegate. Let's flood every ticket in the country with freeper names on the GOP delegate lists.

What the hell, it's worth a try. Gather the required signatures and get on the ballot!

The GOP bigwigs in each state try to influence the selection of every delegate, and conservatives too often sit back and let them get away with it. That's how the GOP ends up with so many RINO's.

With the immigration issue, the price of gasoline, the war dragging on, and the detachment of the administration from the rank and file, Hillary, or most any other Dim, stands a good chance of winning the presidency. She would beat McCain in a heartbeat.

Conservatives have got to stack the convention!

Leni

[TommyDale]

"The Republicans who are most active will do whatever it takes to get someone besides Rudy or McCain nominated."

You got THAT right! During the Republican primaries, watch for the constant reminders of how McCain sold out the Bush Administration with his "compromise" on the judges' confirmations. He will be ripped to shreds with his wife's history of drug abuse and addiction, his liberal wishy-washy positions and his sellouts of conservatives. He will be toast within weeks of declaring his candidacy.

[The Foolkiller]

Why are they only doing McCain - as if he's the only one on the face of the earth!?

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Because that would be the media's dream election. They wanted McPain in 2000, remember? They'd never vote for him, because of that "R" on the ticket (even though it stands for RHINO), but they'd love to see him get the nomination. It'd be a win-win situation for 'em.

[The Foolkiller]

Hold your nose and vote, friends.

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Nope.

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No way in Hell.

[The Foolkiller]

I don't want McCain to win the nomination, but if he is nominated and whining people stay home because they didn't get their way, a woman will attain power who will change this nation forever. This attitude is disgusting. The three greatest threats to our nation are Islamic terror, the ChiComs, and Hillary Clinton. People better understand that and stop whining.

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Call it "whining" or whatever you care to, but I refuse to choose any more between the lesser of two evils-because evil is still evil. And the country would be done for, IMO, if EITHER of these two got the position. That's my stand, and I'm NEVER going to change it. Sorry.

[carlo3b]

The Clintoons are HOPING for a McCain-HilLIARy match-up

Or the MSM is hoping for a McNut - Clinton ticket.. Don't laugh, someone may be planning just that sort of dream team nightmare to spring on us.. GULP.. :)

[doug from upland]

lesser of two evils-because evil is still evil.
==================================================

Make the turn after not seeing a sign that says NO RIGHT TURN ON RED is a violation of the vehicle code. Vehicular manslaughter and leaving the scene is a violation of the vehicle code. Both are violations. Some of us are able to see the difference.

Politics is the art of the possible. We are not always going to get what we want. Hillary is smiling and saying, "Way to go Foolkiller; make your stand!"

[The Foolkiller]

You may as well talk to the wind. I refuse to be shamed for my principles. If the Rhinos are no better than the cRATS, there's no reason to vote for either.

[pleasedontzotme]

You're right. McCain will pull Dems from Hillary.

Like me. I've always said that in 2000, if McCain had been the GOP nominee, the race would not have been close and Gore would have been trounced.

I (a Gore voter) would have voted for McCain over Gore.

I, who don't find Hillary particularly offensive, would vote for McCain over her. Why? Well, for one, I like McCain. I also find McCain far more honest. It's rare to find someone in politics who calls a spade a spade, which, I think, McCain has done. (With the exception of the flag thing in SC in 2000.)

I also think if we had another Clinton term, the Clinton-haters would make sure we spent the entire time embroiled in investigations and grand juries. We can debate the relative merit of that until the cows come home (and, before anyone flames me on this point, I thought WJC should have resigned or been removed), but it would be a huge distraction for the country and not get anything done.

I have a feeling that, as the race heated up, I'd find myself pinching myself from time to time saying, "I'm really gonna vote for this guy?" I disagree with McCain on many major issues. Yet, I still believe, when the curtain was securely pulled behind me, I'd vote for him. Because I would trust him to do what he thought was in the best interest of the country, and not what was popular.

And, yes, I am completely prepared for the posts saying that because I would vote for him, it's a good reason he should never be the nominee. :-)

PS: And if it's not McCain, I would vote for Hillary.

(And before anyone calls me a "sleeper" or a "troll" or something like that, please check my links and you'll find out I've been scrupulously clear on who I am and why I joined here: I'm a Democrat who greatly appreciated the concern Freepers had over the Shiavo case, and appreciates FR as a source of information and thought.)

[doug from upland]

Stick to your principles. That is noble. But there are consequences. Hillary will thank you. She is counting on it.

[doug from upland]

HERE IS THE "HOLD YOUR BREATH UNTIL YOU TURN RED AND HELP HILLARY" SONG

[abigailsmybaby]

Is that supposed to make a conservative feel good?

[SwankyC]

I'd vote for Nader before I'd vote for McCain. At least Nader would be GREAT entertainment. A RINO is sure to just piss you off and cause 4 years of acid reflux.

[abigailsmybaby]

Then Republicans better give us a better choice.

[GB]

Have you checked the American Conservative Union, Eagle Forum, Family Research Center, Christian Coalition, Concerned Women for America, Campaign for Working Families and Republican Liberty Caucus ratings for McCain post-2000? And the Planned Parenthood and NARAL ratings, on the left, for him post 2000? Look at them and tell me how he's going to attract a significant liberal vote when it gets down to gonad-cutting time.

John McCain is a horse's rear, he's been a thorn in Bush's side ... IMHO, more for personal reasons than political or philosophical reasons ... and he's a bit too willing to compromise for my tastes, and I'd really rather have someone else in 2008, but I challenge anybody to look at the numbers ... again, I'm talking post-2000, after his presidential run and the stuff with Bush ... and make anything but a knee-jerk "I simply can't stand the guy because the EEEEEVILL media love him" case that he's going to attract massive libera support. Because looking at the numbers, I don't see a 100 percenter, but I don't see a liberal either, unless the definition of liberal is now anything less than 100 percent.

BTW, if it's Hillary vs. McCain, I'm voting for McCain.