McCain Would Trounce Hillary in ’08 Match-up (New Zogby Poll)

Zogby ^ | 6/23/05

[areafiftyone]

Arizona Senator John McCain would overwhelmingly defeat New York Senator and former First Lady Hillary Rodham Clinton in a theoretical 2008 presidential match-up, a new Zogby America poll reveals.

The survey also shows that in a re-match of the 2004 election, Americans would now vote in equal numbers for Democrat John Kerry and President George W. Bush, while President Bush’s approval rating has plummeted to 44%—the lowest numbers of his presidency.  The poll also found fewer than two-in-five (39%) voters approve of President Bush’s handling of the Iraq war.

The Zogby America survey of 1000 likely voters, conducted from June 20 through 22, 2005, has a margin of error of +/-3.2 percentage points. 

The same survey finds Congress’ job rating even lower, with just one-in-four likely voters (26%) rating the legislature favorably—and just 2% saying it is doing an excellent job.

The survey finds that both senators far outdistance their nearest competition for their parties’ nominations—but in a head-to-head match-up, the Arizona Republican bests the New York Democrat by 19 points, leading her 54% to 35%.  McCain would also defeat Massachusetts Senator—and former Democratic presidential candidate—John Kerry by a full 20 points, 55% to 35%.

McCain has majority support in every single geographic region of the country.  But more telling may be the fact that, even in the states carried by Kerry in 2004, McCain comes out comfortably on top—leading Clinton by 49 to 38% and Kerry by 50% to 40%.  Among the states carried by President Bush, the margin is even wider, giving McCain a 58% to 33% lead over Clinton and 59% to 32% lead over Kerry.

McCain leads with most demographics, though Clinton would best him narrowly among Hispanic voters (45% to 38%) and would win African Americans by 80% to 19%.  But that 19% would be the highest vote tally for a Republican with African Americans in decades. McCain leads Clinton with every age group except voters under 30, where the two are in a dead heat.

President Bush’s Job Approval Plunges to Historic Lows

The drop in President Bush’s approval rating puts him at the lowest numbers since his presidency began.  The Zogby America survey has been conducted on a regular basis throughout Bush’s two terms.

	Positive	Excellent	Good	Negative	Fair	Poor
6-22-05	44	15	29	56	22	34
5-25-05	46	18	28	53	23	30
4-18-05	46	19	27	53	23	30
2-25-05	47	21	26	53	22	31
2-14-05	50	24	26	50	18	32
1-21-05	49	21	28	51	22	29
11-16-04	51	23	28	49	18	31
9-20-04	47	18	29	52	20	32
6-05-04	46	19	27	55	22	33
1-20-04	49	19	30	50	27	23
9-25-03	50	22	28	50	23	27
6-10-03	58	27	31	41	22	19
9-25-02	64	26	38	36	21	15
6-14-02	70	33	37	30	20	10
1-7-02	80	45	35	19	15	4

6-22-05	Overall	Red states	Blue states
Excellent	15	17	14
Good	29	31	25
Positive	44	48	39
Fair	22	22	21
Poor	34	29	41
Negative	56	51	62
Not sure	0	1	0

Zogby International also continues to track the President’s performance in both the “Red States” which he carried in the 2004 election and the “Blue States” carried by Senator John Kerry, the Massachusetts Democrat Bush defeated last fall.  Just one month ago, Bush’s job performance was supported by a 51% majority in the Red States, but now has slumped to 48%.  And in the Blue States, the President has dropped one point from 40% in May to 39% in the latest poll.

Kerry, Bush Would Now Tie in Election

Vote Again for Bush	45
Vote Again for Kerry	43
Vote Again for Third Party	3
Switch to Kerry Vote	2
Switch to Bush Vote	0
Switch to Third Party Vote	2
Would Not Vote	2

The most significant development in the poll may be that Americans now say they would vote for Senator Kerry and President Bush in equal numbers if last November’s election were re-held.  The new poll finds 45% say they would vote for Bush and 45% say they would now vote for his vanquished 2004 opponent.  Although before rounding Bush holds a very slight lead, the two are, for the first time since the November election, back into a statistical dead heat.

The drop in Bush’s support comes against a backdrop of lost momentum in the Senate, where much of the President’s agenda—including the nomination of U.N. Ambassador-designate John Bolton—is stalled. 

President’s Job Approval in Negative Territory on Host of Issues

President’s Handling of Issue	Positive	Excellent	Good	Negative	Fair	Poor	Not sure
War on Terrorism	49	20	29	50	24	26	1
War in Iraq	39	13	26	61	15	46	0
Taxes	36	13	23	62	28	34	2
Foreign Policy	36	10	26	61	26	35	3
Jobs and the economy	35	9	26	65	28	37	1
Education	33	7	26	64	34	30	3
Environment	30	6	24	66	29	37	5
Social Security and Medicare	27	7	20	69	23	46	4

President Bush has slipped into negative territory on his handling of a number of issues surrounding his presidency.  While the nation is split on his handling of the War on Terrorism, the president’s support has dropped into negative territory on a number of other issues, from his anemic numbers on the Iraq War to his dismal ratings on Social Security and Medicare—an area he began his second term vowing to reform.

Majority Now Says Nation on Wrong Track

6-22-05	Overall	Red states	Blue states
Right Track	43	48	35
Wrong Direction	53	48	60
Not sure	5	4	5

The number of Americans who now say the nation is on the wrong track continues to climb as well, with 53% now saying the nation is heading in the wrong direction.  Just one month ago, that number was at 50%.  Much of this increase comes from a shift among Americans who, in May, were undecided about the nation’s direction now saying the nation is on the wrong track.  While both Red Staters and Blue Staters are both more pessimistic than a month ago, the belief the country is heading in the wrong direction is particularly strong in the Blue States, where just one-in-three (35%) say the nation is on the right track.

Congress Rates Very Unfavorably

6-22-05	Overall	Red states	Blue states
Excellent	2	2	2
Good	24	28	19
Positive	26	30	20
Fair	47	47	47
Poor	24	22	26
Negative	71	69	73
Not sure	4	2	6

The poll finds Congress rated even less favorably than the President, with just one-in-four Americans holding a favorable impression of the co-equal branch of government’s job performance.  Seven-in-ten American voters, meanwhile, view Congress in negative terms, with half of all likely voters (47%) terming Congress’ job performance “fair.”  The disapproval of Congress crosses the Red-Blue divide, with voters in both areas holding a negative view of the legislature—though Red Staters are slightly more favorable to the Republican-controlled body. 

In a sign of voter dissatisfaction with Congress, a “generic ballot” question that asks voters which party’s candidate they would select for Congress finds the minority Democrats polling at 38% while the majority Republicans take 33%.  A full one-in-five (20%) say they are not sure or will not vote in the mid-term Congressional elections next fall.      

Zogby International conducted interviews of 1000 likely voters chosen at random nationwide. All calls were made from Zogby International headquarters in Utica, N.Y., from June 20 to 22, 2005. The margin of error is +/- 3.2 percentage points. Slight weights were added to region, party, age, race, religion, and gender to more accurately reflect the voting population. Margins of error are higher in sub-groups.

[Captain Peter Blood]

McCain is a very unstable person with a very quick temper. I would not be surprised to see McCain have a on camera Melt Down like Dean did in 2004. Once that happens McCain is history as he should be.

[TBall]

You think the likes of Chrissy Matthews would dump on McCain in support of Hillary? I can't see it, and I'm telling you McCain would attract a significant portion of the liberal vote.

[cvq3842]

Agreed.

[ZULU]

I don't think Hillery is a lesbian and since a lesbian is by definition a female McCain couldn't be one anyway.
My adjectives are more accurate and valid.

McCain is pretty much of a vacuous loose cannon. Hillery would be less dangerous in the White House than him. At least you can pretty well predict her behavior.

Better an infidel that a heretic, and a traitorous ally is more dangerous than an avowed enemy.

[TNCMAXQ]

I also tend to think if McCain is the nominee that all of a sudden his "moderate" leanings will be forgotten and the Dems will run against him as if he were a far right, anti abortion nut.

I would hesitate to vote for McCain but just maybe if he has the right running mate I could find him palatable. If he were to run with Gov Tim Pawlenty, with the latter being his heir apparent, that would be a good move.

[chimera]

I think you're right on to call it Bush Fatigue. This often happens after a two-term presidency. I'm old enough to remember the '60 election. It wasn't that people back then didn't like Ike or that things were all that bad in the country at the time (they weren't), it's just that the electorate was in the mood for a change and when a charismatic candidate from the out party came along they were willing to give him a look.

Except for '96, the Bush name has been on the national ballot going back to 1980. It's not that I think any of those candidates were bad, it's just that many people may be ready to look elsewhere come '08. Whether we like it or not, John McCain and Rudy have name recognition right now. While I don't particularly like either of them, I can't stand the thought of Hillary! in the WH, and other other 'Rat I'd consider voting for President has been dead a long time.

[TommyDale]

You do realize that I was joking about McCain being a "lesbian", don't you? I wasn't joking about Hillary, however. The new book seems to suggest her sexuality is in question, just as the rumors from back in college days and in Arkansas.

[My2Cents]

Perot is blamed for the election of Clinton in '92, but I think a lot of it had to do simply with 12 years of Republicans in the White House, and people wanted a change. Let's face it...those who decide elections don't have any particular political ideology or party loyalty; they vote their feelings, and if they're feeling like they want a change, then the "ins" become the "outs." Unless W has a wildly successful second term (which he's capable of), the desire for a change will work against the Republicans in '08. With the likelihood of another Clinton being on the Dem ticket in '08, this is a horrible time to run out of steam.

In other words, I totally agree with your comments.

[ZULU]

If Hillery has a sexual problem, its probably because she was never married to a REAL man. REAL men aren't sexual predators.

By the way, I don't like Hillery. She is a radical, anti-American, pro-racist, anti-cop, anti-soldier crypto-Bolshevick.

But for the reasons I enumerated above, given a choice between her and that pompous, egomanical loose cannon, anti-Constitutionalist Judas McCain, its no contest. From a political philosophy perspective they are very similar. McCain is as "Republican" as Michael Bloomburg - maybe even less.

[OldFriend]

If McCrazy is putting all his election hopes in Zogby's basket......so be it!

[STD]

"McCain Would Trounce Hillary in ’08 Match-up (New Zogby Poll)"

McCain Would Then Trounce the US Constitution!

[ZULU]

Thats probably why Zogby wants him on the ticket.

[chimera]

All it took in '92 to exacerbate the "12-year itch" was a sense that things were not going well in the country (a recession, with the media painting the President as "uncaring" and "out of touch" with the average person), and a candidate from the opposition who was presented as something he was not (i.e., a "centrist Democrat"). You see the skids being greased right now for Hillary! on that gambit.

Republicans face an uphill battle in '08 because of the fatigue factor, as well as a sense of complacency, and the constant media barrage about the "disaster" or "failure" in Iraq. That wears you down eventually. The Iraq policy has to be vindicated in a dramatic way in the fairly short term, or Republicans are going to pay a price.

On the complacency issue, we are kind of like victims of our own success here. There has not been another 9-11 style attack and for the very reason of our WOT policies being successful on this account, many in the electorate seem to be buying into the lie that the WOT is "unnecessary" or "a waste". Smart-thinking people will know that what success there has been is because we have kept up the pressure on the bad guys and must continue to do so, but in the minds of many voters they was to see "an end", or "surrender", like we had when we beat the Nazis and the Japanese. They don't know that this isn't that kind of war. So Republicans need to find a way of turning success in the WOT to political advantage at home, if we are to continue a successful policy. Otherwise we'll get a 'Rat in there who will cut and run, thereby inviting another 9-11 type of attack.

[ZULU]

John McCain and Howard Dean - separated at birth.

[LADY J]

Zogby is trying to set the Republicans up to nominate McNut to run against another dangerous nut.

That way - the press and can beat him up and the conservatists will sit this one out...so that she wins.

The stupid Republicans who are hobnobbing with her right now are helping Zogby out!

No way to the wideload or the McNut. Let's get somebody decent to run.

[Dark Wing]

fyi

[sport]

Balony!

I know a lot people's votes he won't get, including mine.

[HitmanLV]

I agree. Conservatives who insist its their way 100% of the time or the highway, are infantile and as bad as one-issue liberals.

Outside of McCain's opportunism and media hounding, why is his lifetime ACU rating of 83 (out of 100) so offensive to so many Freepers?

[areafiftyone]

Don't worry, it will never happen. I would support a military coup in this case.

LOL So would I.

[MeanWestTexan]

I think McCain --- being from AZ --- and having half a brain when it comes to national security --- would build a wall along our Southern border (as is seriously being considered).

Hillary would: (1) claim that the Wall is racist; (2) hurt migratory flea-mouse turtledoves; and (3) hurt Dim voter turnout.