Republicans face an uphill battle in '08 because of the fatigue factor, as well as a sense of complacency, and the constant media barrage about the "disaster" or "failure" in Iraq. That wears you down eventually. The Iraq policy has to be vindicated in a dramatic way in the fairly short term, or Republicans are going to pay a price.
On the complacency issue, we are kind of like victims of our own success here. There has not been another 9-11 style attack and for the very reason of our WOT policies being successful on this account, many in the electorate seem to be buying into the lie that the WOT is "unnecessary" or "a waste". Smart-thinking people will know that what success there has been is because we have kept up the pressure on the bad guys and must continue to do so, but in the minds of many voters they was to see "an end", or "surrender", like we had when we beat the Nazis and the Japanese. They don't know that this isn't that kind of war. So Republicans need to find a way of turning success in the WOT to political advantage at home, if we are to continue a successful policy. Otherwise we'll get a 'Rat in there who will cut and run, thereby inviting another 9-11 type of attack.
Republicans need to find a way of turning success in the WOT to political advantage at home
It gets back to something I posted on another thread yesterday: The war in Iraq, as well as the WOT, are justified, but the Bush Administration has done a horrible job with the PR aspects of their policies. W was on a roll -- he literally soared to the heights of greatness -- immediately after 9/11, and into 2002, but IMHO, his rhetoric about the WOT hasn't changed in over two years, and his comments are sounding like a tired cliche, which is a horrible failure in leadership during a time of war. Whenever he's had the spotlight, he's pretty much dropped the ball (I'm thinking of the Russert "Face the Nation" interview in, I think it was, late 2003), and in the first debate with Kerry. I think Bush's winning margin in '04 was the fact that enough people understand the seriousness of the WOT, and recognized we needed to continue with Bush in office, in spite of his inability to articulate that need. Basically, Bush has performed miserably when it's come to defending Iraq policy and the WOT. People may disagree, but that's my opinion. I picked up Richard Miniter's "The Shadow War" when it came out, and while the information in it was rather sparse, it did a better job informing us of the scope and successes in the war on terror than the Administration has done. Most shocking was Miniter's comment that the US and its allies in the WOT (and he points out that US presence has been not simply in Afghanistan and Iraq the past three-plus years, but in about 70 countries total) thwart about one terrorist plot a day, on average. The American people are oblivious to this. While I suspect that not much is told of the details of the war on terror because of security reasons, and that most of our operations are covert, the Administration would do well to start making our successes and the seriousness of the continuing threat more public.
You see the skids being greased right now for Hillary! on that gambit.
And when you see self-identified conservatives (like on FR) start cozying up to the idea of actually voting for Hillary (either because of hatred of McCain, or because of her smoke and mirrors on an issue like illegal immigration), you know it's going to be an uphill battle. As much as I don't like McCain, the idea of another four years of a Clinton (or worse, a Rodham) in the Oval Office makes me sick to my stomach.