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You seem to be rather confident that Hillary is going to be nominee, that no one is going to fight her for it.

That makes the assumption that despite their disarray, all Democrats everywhere will coalesce around her early, and all the other ambitious Democratic politicians (including Landrieu and Lincoln) will put aside their personal ambitions for the "good of the party"

That doesn't hold up to the political smell-test. Hillary will have opposition, and she (like Allen and McCain) is at a disadvantage because everyone knows she's running, she's not exactly sure who'd oppose her, and so her enemies can run a much more effective digging up dirt campaign against her then she can against them

What did in Gary Hart?... the fact is, Gary Hart was presumed to be a likely nominee from 1985 onward, and that gave everyone who wanted to be President the time to dig up the goods on him, and he certainly didn't help anything by taunting the press. The press had to a large degree, hyped him as the guy, he started to believe his own hype and that's why he made the mistake he did.

If I bet on things such as this, I would be willing to bet good money Hillary doesn't win the nomination.

As for 2008, there is such a thing as, staying home instead of voting for either person. It is clear the counties I referenced (and a few others where it was close, but the repeal just barely passed) are clearly mired in old thinking, and old thinking applies to everything.

Just because they won't vote for Condi doesn't mean they'll vote for Hillary (which as I see it, highly unlikely)

They could just not show up at all, but if you had Condi on one side, and a ticket that could actually be portrayed as moderate (Lincoln, Bayh, Clark, might be a lie, but they could get away with it), then the Condi ticket would probably lose the above counties.

I personally think this Hillary thing is a ruse, think about it, in order to compete with her, all the reasoning here is, you have to mollify various political factors, so what happens if the GOP produces the ticket designed to "beat Hillary", and the Democrats pick the ticket designed to "win Red States", and in designing the ticket to "beat Hillary", the Republicans put people on the ticket that might upset voters they've had in the past.

I know it's a bit conspiracist, but is it really out of the realm of possibility?

This all being said, I think the ticket will be a combine of something like Allen/Sanford, etc, and the Dems will probably be something akin to Bayh, Clark, Landrieu, etc