I think the Paki-Afghan warlords are motivated by roughly equal parts of a) money; and b) ideology. With the continued growth of a stable, non-dictatorial government in Iraq, matched by the continual losses of the "insurgents" there, we have the slow drip, drip, drip of adherence to UBL-type ideology.
Eventually, more and more Muslims will start to believe that Allah is not with UBL or Al-Quaida after all. When that starts to happen, watch for the warlords to be amenable to bribes to turn him over. It'll be very quick after that.