Posted on 06/16/2005 7:23:37 AM PDT by areafiftyone
Recent Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) polling shows that seven Republican members would be easily defeated if their reelection took place today, the committee’s chairman told House Democrats yesterday at a closed-door meeting.
While Rep. Rahm Emanuel (Ill.) did not name the members, who are from districts “around the country,” he said all polled at 43 percent or less when voters were asked if they would vote today to reelect their congressional representative, sources at the meeting told The Hill.
Emanuel said three of the Republicans polled below 40 percent, including one, from a Western state, at 32 percent and another, a Californian, at 34 percent. The DCCC has targeted three California members: Reps. David Dreier, Richard Pombo and Randy “Duke” Cunningham.
The numbers created a palpable buzz in the room, said one attendee, as the assembled Democrats mulled the prospect of unseating a handful of vulnerable Republicans. Democrats have seized on recent nationwide polls showing high disapproval ratings for Congress and the president.
Carl Forti, a spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee, questioned the validity of the Democrats’ numbers.
“I’m not sure we have any that are polling at 43 percent or below,” he said. “If I’m the Democrats, I’m trying to show momentum any way I can get it. So if I have to commission a poll that is slightly tilted, I would do that.”
Some observers have suggested that Americans’ disaffection with Congress could rub off on Democrats as well as Republicans, leading to depressed poll numbers across the board. Emanuel dismissed that assertion, saying that polling in the districts of Democratic incumbents has not been as low as in the seven GOP districts.
“Let’s just say they [the Democratic poll numbers] are not trading in that band,” he told The Hill.
Emanuel also asserted that the party’s recruiting efforts have been progressing at a fast clip. So far, the DCCC has recruited 19 candidates to challenge incumbents or run for open seats, well ahead of the three candidates the committee had at this time last cycle, he said.
“The political environment has attracted a lot of well-qualified candidates,” said Rep. Chris Van Hollen (Md.), who chairs the DCCC’s recruiting efforts. “We’ve been focused on getting lots of challengers and having them file early so that if there is a mood-swing election, we’re ready for it.”
Democrats are hoping that their efforts to highlight what they regard as “Republican abuse of power” in Congress, in particular the decision to intervene in the Terri Schiavo case and the ongoing impasse over House ethics procedures, will resonate with voters. Democrats also have sought to appeal to voters with their stand against private accounts in Social Security and in favor of stem-cell research. He added, “It was a challenge recruiting in ’03. Now, because of the opposition to Bush, we’re getting candidates to believe in the viability of the district.”
Montana state Rep. Monica Lindeen is expected to announce her candidacy against Rep. Dennis Rehberg (R) next week, Emanuel told the caucus meeting.
Emanuel also said he would closely monitor the political fallout from Cunningham’s sale of his Del Mar, Calif., home to a defense contractor. The watchdog group Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington yesterday called on the House ethics committee to investigate the sale.
A recent ABC News/Washington Post poll showed that, although Americans have a poor view of Congress as a whole, they still support their own members of Congress. Sixty-one percent of respondents said they approved of the job their elected representatives were doing, while only 41 percent approved of Congress as a whole.
Sarah Feinberg, a DCCC spokeswoman, said those results do not contradict the DCCC polling, which showed a lack of support for members from their own constituents.
“I think that first of all [the high approval rating] is just not the case in these districts,” she said. “What we’re seeing nationally is that Americans are dissatisfied with Republican leadership. Their priorities are out of sync with Americans, and I think these polls show that.”
I would be surprised if David Drier lost, but i suppose it is possible
What I've read about Duke sounds real bad. If he did what I think he did the pubbies will have to find somebody else to run for his seat.
Most are just angry people who hate the Republican Party because it doesn't agree with them on their pet issue or because the party ran off Pat Buchanan and his ilk.
Actually ive noticed that.
When the Presidents approval goes down it is always because the President doesnt/hasnt done something they want or support.
I also noticed the prevailing attitude by many is Santorum is going to lose because he didnt support Toomey, rather than he is going to lose becasue he is probably too conservative for a rather Blue State. BTW Toomy would ahve lost in the General Election. A few hundred thousand Kerry voters would have had to vote Toomey in order for him to win.
Don't go putting words in folk's mouths!
If the reps loose big in '06 it will be because they did (and have done) nothing to stop the dems.
If (dare I say when) the dems take back control of both houses in '06, it won't be because they've done anything to earn it; it will be because the reps. simply did nothing.
No one said anything at all about impeaching the President.
All of those things may have contributed, but IMO, the biggest factor was the redistricting effort after the 1990 census. Republicans finally had enough clout in state legislatures for the first time in a long time, that they were able to unravel some long-standing Democrat-engineered gerrymanders that had given Democrats overrepresentation in the House. Also, southern Democrats were complicit in gerrymandering minority districts that served their purpose in electing more minorities to congress, but at the same time diluted Democrat strength in the resulting non-minority districts.
Under the new redistricting maps, the GOP was in a position to make significant congressional gains. We started to see this in 1992, when the Republicans gained 9 House seats, despite George H. W. Bush dragging down the ticket.
All the things you mentioned helped, but the Republican takeover of Congress was really engineered through favorable redistricting. Whatever issues the Democrats may have in 2006, that is one critical element they won't have.
well if the Dems win the House in 2006, they will impeach Bush....Senate will never convict....it will actualyl backfire big time on the Dems in 2008....I predict Hillary will be nowhere near impeachment
They will point to this poll when they (the dems) lose 7 Seats as proof of voter fraud.
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