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CA: Appreciation Slows as Home Prices Hit New Highs
LA Times ^ | 6/13/05 | Annette Haddad

Posted on 06/15/2005 12:48:38 PM PDT by BurbankKarl

Southern California home prices rocketed to new highs again last month, but the rate of appreciation appeared to have flattened out, data released today.

The median price paid for a Southern California home rose 15.2% on a year-over-year basis to $456,000 in May, setting a record. Yet, the pace of the increase was on par with the rate of change in April, when the median rose 15% to $445,000.

Pushing prices higher has been a relentless stream of eager buyers. Home sales in May were nearly as strong as a year ago when they set a record. Last month, a total of 30,886 new and resale homes changed hands in the six-county region. That was down just 0.9% from a year ago.

"There just aren't enough homes for sale to meet demand," said John Karevoll, chief analyst for DataQuick Information Systems, which reports regional housing information each month.

Nonetheless, Southern California's housing market is slowing from its peak, which looks to have been reached a year ago when the year-over-year price increase soared nearly 27%.

In many ways, the Southland is fast becoming a tale of two housing markets.

Prices in the Inland Empire are still accelerating at a red-hot pace of more than 25% year over year, while the rest of the region is showing definite signs of chilling out.

For the first time in almost five years, Orange County's median price dipped to a gain of less than 10% in May, and San Diego's year-over-year increase was 7.5%, the slowest rate of change in five years. Los Angeles prices, too, are losing speed, rising 16.5% last month to $459,000, the slowest rate of appreciation in three years.

Indeed, Southern California's housing market is no longer on the same fast track.

"The region now is starting to behave differently,"

(Excerpt) Read more at latimes.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events; US: California
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To: montag813

No but crack ho's hanging in front of it are a free feature.


21 posted on 06/15/2005 1:36:30 PM PDT by misterrob
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To: ambrose

Interest Only Loans are scary beasts...


22 posted on 06/15/2005 1:37:56 PM PDT by Michael Barnes
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To: BurbankKarl

They say that when something regarding financial trends appears on the cover of that rag Time Magazine, then watch out. Well, the real estate froth was a recent topic. We're about due for state wide correction. Of course, with the lack of easily buildable flat land, as with all such corrections, it will only be temporary and the highly atypical (versus the rest of the US) California real estate appreciation dynamic will kick back in. It will never cease being a relatively scarce commodity.


23 posted on 06/15/2005 1:41:42 PM PDT by GOP_1900AD (Stomping on "PC," destroying the Left, and smoking out faux "conservatives" - Take Back The GOP!)
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To: maranatha

You just keep trading up with your equity gains. I have made about $150K from my last two houses which allows me to get into a lot of good property. If you have good credit scores and a decent bank balance you can get in.

Interest only and option ARMs also make a lot of stuff possible. The financial people complain about them but if you are not going to stay in house for long periods of time then 30 year fixed is wasted money.


24 posted on 06/15/2005 1:43:36 PM PDT by misterrob
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To: 2banana

But those who have held off buying due to a combination of sticker shock and aversion to risky financing will finally be rewarded for their patience. They'll have a window of opportunity to get in at the low point. Just like what happened from about 1990 through about 1996 or 97.


25 posted on 06/15/2005 1:44:15 PM PDT by GOP_1900AD (Stomping on "PC," destroying the Left, and smoking out faux "conservatives" - Take Back The GOP!)
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To: Michael Barnes

not is you are holding the property short term. If you are going to stay for longer than 5-7 years then go full blown mortgage. If you don't then what's the big hub bub?


26 posted on 06/15/2005 1:45:13 PM PDT by misterrob
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To: Michael Barnes
Interest Only Loans can be scarry, but only if you're a poor planner. I have an interest only loan on my house, but the loan is only on about 60% of the housse's price when I bought it: the rest is equity. Furthermore, each month, I automatically deposit an amount that is approximately one half of the interest payment into a S&P 500 index fund. Presumably, over the long term, this will appreciate and I'll use it to pay off the loan. There'll be capital gains taxes, but over the long term, these gains will be only about 18%, and furthermore, the interest on the loan is tax deductible. I think the loan is 5.5%, and since I'm in about a 36% combined federal and state tax bracket, this means my effecive interest rate is about 3.6%. So if the S&P fund returns just 4.5% or so, I'll break even, and everything above that is pure gravy.

The trick is to automatically deduct the funds for the S&P account, and not to touch it until I use it to pay back the mortgage.

There is a risk of course that the S&P won't appreciate over say 20 years, but it's never happened before.

27 posted on 06/15/2005 1:50:42 PM PDT by Koblenz (Holland: a very tolerant country. Until someone shoots you on a public street in broad daylight...)
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To: misterrob
I'm a finance guy and I talk to finance guys and most aren't nay saying the interest only. While I don't have one personally I have considered it and from many angles it makes alot of sense. They have interest only loans with fixed rates for 30 years in the range of 6% right now. Of course they are int only for ten years and then it gets interesting (no pun intended). These aren't 1 and 3 year jobs..they go 7 and 10 years. My current mortgage is fixed at 10 years and I'm paying a whopping 7K a year towards equity on a 500K loan. After 10 years I pay off a whopping 70K in principal over the guy with the interest only. Big deal. Do I really care even if the market is flat the entire 10 years....No. If the market goes up 2% a year for 10 years I gain about 320K in equity and the interest only guy gets $250K in equity...again no life changing difference. In down times the interest only gives flexibility to prevent collapse, it doesn't increase the risk necessarily. People confuse the interest only risk with equity risk and overlook the cash flow risk. I'm becoming a fan of these things.
28 posted on 06/15/2005 1:56:47 PM PDT by Bogeygolfer
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To: ambrose
761 Sq. Ft. in Ventura. $819,000.
29 posted on 06/15/2005 1:58:08 PM PDT by hoppity
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To: Koblenz

Like you said, it takes planning and discipline. I know many who don't apply that on their IOL's, it's gonna get ugly for them one day..


30 posted on 06/15/2005 1:58:17 PM PDT by Michael Barnes
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To: misterrob

The issue is for people who plan to hold short term, but then can't get out as planned becasue of a declining or even flat market. The numbers seems to indicate that many ppl are using IOL's to buy beyond their means, and speculate on housing.


31 posted on 06/15/2005 2:04:32 PM PDT by Wayne07
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To: Koblenz
There is a risk of course that the S&P won't appreciate over say 20 years, but it's never happened before.

I don't know the answer, but have you looked at the period from 1928-30 to 1948-50? I think you saw 20 year net declines in those times, and that is before you adjust for inflation.

32 posted on 06/15/2005 2:09:16 PM PDT by Wayne07
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To: MrShoop

I don't recall plenty. I do remember the day the judge said it was OK for Reno and the government to sue Microsoft I called my brokern whlie the news was breaking and told him to sell everything. I lived through the S&L debacle so it was the best move I could have done.

I do agree with you that stock brokers did pimp shell corporations but only to those dumb enough to not know what they were buying.


33 posted on 06/15/2005 2:43:14 PM PDT by edcoil (Reality doesn't say much - doesn't need too)
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To: MrShoop
According to a Cato Institute Study, the worst -- worst -- 20 year period was from 1929 to 1948, when the S&P index increased an average of 3.36% per annum. This is about my breakeven point when factoring in compounding.

The best 20 year period was 1942 to 1961, which saw an average 17.32% annual return.

The worst 25 year return still kicked back an average 6.00% return, which means that every 12 years, you'd have doubled, so over 25 years, you'd have quadrupled.

Also, don't forget that by investing every month with a fixed amount, you're buying more shares when the market goes down and fewer shares when the market goes up. So that'll effect returns as well of course.

34 posted on 06/15/2005 3:11:20 PM PDT by Koblenz (Holland: a very tolerant country. Until someone shoots you on a public street in broad daylight...)
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To: hoppity

It is depressing that we have a 2000+sq foot house in North Missouri for only $79,000 and no serious offers because the local economy is dirt poor. There is lots of excellent buys out in the Midwest and South for any Californians smart enough to sell out.


35 posted on 06/15/2005 3:30:29 PM PDT by Swiss
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To: Swiss

True. We'd move, but all of our families are out here. Grandmas and Grandpas are only 45-60 minutes away. I'd be disowned.


36 posted on 06/15/2005 3:33:42 PM PDT by hoppity
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To: onyx

The problem is the low rates of interest, and the government also benefits from it.

IMO the banks were getting a 200% increase in profit on home loans a bit over a year ago, now as the rates rose, banks have held back increases having that extra 100% padding to play with.

I think right now their margin is something like 130% profit compared to years ago on a loan.

The states love homes going for 400% more because then they get that high price locked in as the base for property taxes.

I think California got a surprising extra 4 billion in property tax payments which I think Arnold applied to the debt.

The whole thing kind of stinks, how can an average person life in an area where just the property taxes could be $800 a month on a very below average home?


37 posted on 06/15/2005 3:35:45 PM PDT by A CA Guy (God Bless America, God bless and keep safe our fighting men and women.)
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To: RckyRaCoCo
Wish they did that when I lived there back in the late 80's.

It's where I bought my first home at age 26 for 174K five years ago. My neighbor just sold for a half a million. Now I am RICH RICH RICH! What a great country! ;-)

38 posted on 06/15/2005 4:01:27 PM PDT by Smogger
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To: montag813
"...does it come with bulletproof windows?"

No but it does come with a 20 minute drive to the beach or downtown people are just now figuring out.

39 posted on 06/15/2005 4:03:10 PM PDT by Smogger
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To: A CA Guy


Good thinking.
I concur.


40 posted on 06/15/2005 7:01:56 PM PDT by onyx (Pope John Paul II - May 18, 1920 - April 2, 2005 = SANTO SUBITO!)
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