Posted on 06/13/2005 2:54:03 PM PDT by Alex Marko
The former army commander, Michel Aoun, who recently returned to Lebanon after 15 years in Syrian-imposed exile, has established himself as the dominant political figure in the country’s Maronite Christian heartland, following the third of four rounds in the parliamentary election. Mr Aoun’s strong performance has damaged the chances of the opposition front headed by Saad al-Hariri (son of the assassinated former prime minister) and the Druze leader, Walid Jumblatt, being able to win control of the new parliament. It may also end up securing the position of the president, Emile Lahoud, whose term was controversially extended by three years last September.
Mr Aoun’s Free and Patriotic Movement secured 15 of the 16 seats in the Kersouan, Jbeil and Metn areas, north and east of Beirut, and all seven of the seats in the mainly Christian Beqaa valley town of Zahleh. However, he failed to make inroads in the hotly contested Baabdat-Aley constituency or in the Chouf region. Mr Jumblatt managed to secure the 19 seats contested in these areas, with support from Mr Hariri and the Shia Hizbullah group. Mr Hariri picked up the six seats in the southern Beqaa, and the alliance of Hizbullah and Amal took all ten seats in Baalbek-Hermel. In the first round, in Beirut, Mr Hariri’s bloc took all 19 seats (including one for Hizbullah), while Hizbullah/Amal dominated the second, taking all 23 seats (including one reserved for Bahia al-Hariri, the sister of the late Rafiq al-Hariri).
The final round is scheduled to take place in North Lebanon on June 19th, and will pit the Hariri bloc against the most powerful remnants of Syrian influence in Lebanon, amongst both Maronites and Sunnis, as well as against Muslim Brotherhood figures. Mr Aoun is also likely also be a factor in this round. He made his presence felt immediately after the third-round count by travelling to the northern capital of Tripoli and cultivating an alliance with Mr Hariri’s chief opponents, Omar al-Karami (Sunni) and Suleimen Franjieh (Maronite).
The Christians’ Christian
The significance of Mr Aoun’s victory is not so much in the number of seats that he has secured but in the fact that he has been so dominant in areas where the majority of voters are Christian. The Lebanese system provides for half of the 128 seats to go to Christians (including 34 for Maronites), but in many areas the Christian MPs depend on securing votes from Muslims and Druzes. Mr Aoun is now in a position to claim to be the legitimate political voice of the Christians, as he inflicted a resounding defeat on the main rival Christian groupings of Qornet Shahwan and the Lebanese Forces.
Mr Hariri and Mr Jumblatt forged alliances with Mr Aoun’s Christian rivals in the hope of forming a broad cross-sectarian front that would be able to put pressure on Mr Lahoud to resign, thus removing the last symbol of Syrian domination over Lebanon. The Hariri/Jumblatt front also recognised, however, that they would have to make some compromises in order to secure the support of Hizbullah and Amal for such a move—notably allowing the former Amal leader, Nabih Berri, to retain the post of speaker, and desisting from demanding Hizbullah’s disarmament. Mr Aoun has criticised the Hariri/Jumblatt bloc for consenting to coexist with the Syrians over a long period of time, and he has called for radical changes to the Lebanese political system so as to end the sway of sectarian bosses. He has not joined in the calls for Mr Lahoud’s resignation, but he has demanded Hizbullah’s disarmament.
After the predictable first two rounds, the Lebanese election, the first in 30 years to be conducted without the presence of Syrian troops, has sprung into life. The various parties will throw everything into the final round, which is likely to be highly adversarial. Once the votes have been counted, another phase of political bargaining will ensue. One of the central questions will be what price Mr Aoun will place on bringing his bloc into the kind of national unity front that Mr Hariri has envisaged.
Eventually Aoun-Hariri will make a national alliance that will control over two thirds of the Parliament. It will be a great thing to rebuild a free Lebanon, take all Syria symbol out of power, and most importantly disarm terrorist group Hizballah.
So far out of 100 elected parliamentary seats in Lebanon 66 are anti-Syria and 34 were pro-Syria. In the last round next Sunday there are 28 seats in play, the anti-Syria parties are expected to get at least 25 seats. Hence these anti-Syria parties will have at least 91 seats from 128 seats in the Lebanese Parliament, more than the super majority of two thirds.
"Eventually Aoun-Hariri will make a national alliance that will control over two thirds of the Parliament."
I would suggest that Mr. Aoun will probably concur that Mr. Lahoud has to go. Likewise, Mr. Hariri will concede that the Hezbollah will have to disarm.
Maybe another Lebanese Christian general in the area will help in his campaign--General John Abizaid, the U.S. four-star general in charge of Central Command is the son of Lebanese Christian immigrants to America.
That will be great :)
" Eventually Aoun-Hariri will make a national alliance"
That is if Hariri would eventually joins rank with the agenda of Aoun. This agenda covers reconstruction and fighting corruption.
Aoun is asking for an independent audit into the lebanese government finances for the 15 past years. The "opposition" has formed a coalition from an all former pro-Syrian politicians to counter this audit. This audit would have a crystal clear result, that of unmasking to whose pockets went the $44 BN debt. Everybody in Lebanon would tell you that it went to the pockets of the Syrian Nomenklatura, the Syrian intelligence apparatus posted in Lebabon, and those same people who claim now they are anti-Syrian, but are joining ranks with Hariri. That brings up the question: Why was Rafic Hariri murdered? Not who murdered Rafic Hariri!
Form an opposition block in the Parliament for the next four years.
Make the worst mistake of his life which is joining the shiite block lead by Amal and terrorist group Hizballah.
Thanks for the information. I guess the Maronite diaspora over the past century has had a larger effect than I thought.
I'm surprised that Christians are still entitled to half the legislative seats even though they are now, what, 35%-40% of the population? I'm sure this creates some resentment, as does any system in which people are judged because of race, ethnicity or religion (imagine if such quotas were used in the U.S. Congress). And did I understand correctly that the Christian representative elected in a particular district is elected by all voters in the district, including Muslims, and thus may be a pro-Hezbollah Christian? It seems to me that the religion of the legislator is not as important as ensuring that each religious group is able to elect their chosen candidate.
I have long felt that in places such as Lebanon and Northern Ireland they should adopt multi-member districts so that if 60% of the district's population is Christian and 40% is Muslim it will most likely result in 3 Christians and 2 Muslims being elected. That way the legislature is representative of the different religious groups without having artificial and divisive quotas imposed.
I agree with you that in an ideal Democratic system the Lebanese Christians should have less seats in the Parliament in order to reflect their real numbers which somewhere from 35% to 40% of the total population whereas now they have 50% of the total seats. Your idea about the relative representation was floated around in this election but it was shut down.
"I agree with you that in an ideal Democratic system the Lebanese Christians should have less seats in the Parliament in order to reflect their real numbers which somewhere from 35% to 40% of the total population whereas now they have 50% of the total seats."
Agree 100% because in the future this artificial quota can be a huge problem.
The quota imposed is mainly because the islamic influence in Lebanon was imported in by Syria. Most are not lebanese muslims, they are syrian citizens.
"If he does not join Hariri in a coalition then he has two options"
First there would be some consistant common grounds for that possibility to take shape.
Those common grounds would not be based on traditional feodal politics and power sharing. Lebanon is a broke country and has a vital need for stopping and fighting corruption, and for the accountability of those responsible for the countrie's $44 BN debt.
If Hariri does not share those common grounds, then your first supposition would happen very likely, not the second one.
It'll be intersting to see what Syria's reaction will be to losing a puppet regime. Hope this guy has good bodyguards.
If Hariri is aligned with Wahabbi interests let's hope there is no alliance.
Let us figure truely how much is the royal family in KSA still in line with the wahhabis and how much is it in conflict with them and most important, for what reasons if that is true? strictly religious, religious proselytism and expansionism, political (future of the political system in that country)...?
One thing is sure enough, Hariri is aligned with the Saudi crown-prince who introduced him personnally to G.W. and Chirac.
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