Posted on 06/09/2005 6:11:20 AM PDT by UCAL
In 2006, the most important Senate race in the nation is Pennsylvania. This is not only because it is considered a prime pickup opportunity in an important swing state, but also because Rick Santorum clearly has Presidential aspirations. In fact, with Frist seriously damaged, and with Brownback engaging in a strange bout of self-immolation with the conservative netroots, Santorum could be well positioned to seize the support of the theocons in the Republican primary. A victory in Pennsylvania in 2006 is also a national victory in 2008. However, things are not looking so good for little Ricky:
>Favorable / Unfavorable
Poll Date Santorum Casey
Keystone 6/5 42/26 40/9
Pew 5/27 49/28 52/13
Q-poll 4/18 36/25 40/6
Trial Heats Santorum Casey
Keystone 6/5 37 44
Keystone 3/20 43 44
Q-poll 4/18 35 49
Q-poll 2/14 41 46
Casey's favorables are remarkable. Despite a name ID hovering in the low sixties, very few Pennsylvanians have a negative or unfavorable opinion of him. By contrast, with a name ID in the mid-seventies, Santorum's favorables are still decent, but nowhere near as good as Casey's. Considering this, right now, I think it is fairly safe to conclude that Casey is leading poll after poll in Pennsylvania not because people dislike Santorum, but because people really like Casey.
The trends also look good. Casey has widened his lead on Santorum in both the Q-poll and the Keystone poll.
Further, an incumbent at 37% is extremely poor, but since he is probably facing Casey who has been previously elected to statewide office, the incumbent rule does not apply to this race to nearly the same degree. That is not to say that Casey cannot benefit at least somewhat from being the challenger, since his name ID is about 15 points lower than Santorum's. This means that Casey has more room to grow than Santorum.
Still, here's the real kicker in the Keystone poll. While Santorum is down seven points to Casey, facing a negative trendline, losing the favorable struggle and has less room to grow, he is still heavily over-performing in uber-Democratic Philadelphia:
Does Rick Santorum Deserve Re-election?
Region Yes No
Philly 39 39
NE 37 39
Pitt 32 55
SW 44 48
NW 44 45
Central 46 35
SE 38 51
Santorum is actually doing better in this poll in Philadelphia than he is in Pittsburgh, the Philly suburbs, or Northeast PA. Philadelphia, however, is going to vote at least 75% against Santorum. Considering this and the other factors I listed, if we blow this one, we are not going to win pretty much anywhere else in the country in 2006.
And GOD forbid you try to push reality through the bubble they live in, then the nasty comes out full force.
I'm still trying to figure out just WHY losing is better than winning to them.
I'm now writing for the lurkers. :-)
Who did you vote for fool in your effort to not concede the Presidency to a Democrat? Please go to www.conservative utopia.com to live out your fantasy world and leave reality to us that reside in the real world.
Bye, bye Tadams.
Thanks for your efforts.
I try to explain how things work in reality, but some people would rather live in a fantasy and/or be miserable.
Whenever the excuse is 1) "principles and/or 2) "to teach a lesson"/"send a message", I know that person hasn't a clue.
Factually, you are wrong. Psychobabbling, you are wrong.
Philosophically, you are wrong.
You are just plan wrong, like little Ricky.
He is a fraud, a poser, a pretender. He is NOT a conservative. He only played one for us for a few years.
And what have you people (Dane) done but bring us weak kneed, spineless, gutless, cajoneless, RINOs.
And you think that those people are your friends. At least we know that the Hillarys and Kennedys and Schumers are our enemies.
Unlike you, I am a free man and do not need permission.
How is Ricky standing up for my pro life beliefs? Until we have a SCOTUS that will overturn Roe v Wade, abortion will exist.
Was Ricky standing up for my prolife beliefs when he supported a baby killing Arlen Specter against pro life Pat Toomey? He supported a man that effectively cancels out his vote and he did it for raw political considerations. He wanted to advance himself, not any principle.
Maybe you will sell out your principles, but I don't and won't. Oh, I forgot. You don't have any to start with so you can't sell them out.
If what the GOP seems to stand for with open borders, huge spending increases, massive federal expansion, and debt for as far as the eye can see, yeah, I guess I am a RINO because I don't support any of this shit.
Perhaps the voters will elect someone who doesn't think that the nanny state is the be all, end all of life.
Nah. Never happen. Murtha's got them trained to stand with their hand out.
( o )
I won't support your buddy, Santorum.
I won't support Casey.
I either vote 3rd party or leave that line blank.
Keep your BS response. I know what you're going to say and it is BS. I don't vote just to 'win' -- it's not a freaking horserace. I vote for principled candidates.
I will still be a free man if my candidate loses.
You will still be a loser whether your's wins or loses because they don't stand for anything, but will fall for anything.
Remind me to laugh later.
You support RINOs. RINOs are obstructing the Senate's approval of judges. Santorum's support of Specter taught the RINOs that they don't have to support the GOP or follow the GOP platform, but still get support from the party.
See how that works.
Think man, think. There has to be consequences and Santorum removed them for Specter and everyone else. Why do you think that they were emboldened to cut the (loser) deal with the Dems? They KNEW nothing would happen to them.
And the GOP knows that you don't have the courage to stand up to them and withhold your support.
Come back after you buy a clue.
Where to start?
Okay, your last comment -- we do have an anti gun, pro death, big government Senator from PA -- THANKS TO SANTORUM.
What part of that don't you understand?
You can try to put words into my mouth but I said NONE of what you said.
Specter is about the worst so called pubbies. Ricky is beginning to vote that way. He used to be one of the most conservative Senators. Now, 15 are to the right of him. What I did say was that he cannot be trusted to do the right thing because he sold out in a misguided attempt to secure his own political future.
What I want is for Santorum to get a nice promotion to some cushy job somewhere BEFORE next year's primary so that a real conservative pubbie can run and win.
No challenger will survive a primary, but Santorum will not survive the general.
I love that quote. Thanks.
I cannot beleive that FR posters are still supporting wayward pubbies and RINOs after the filibuster fiasco.
WTF do you call a Republican, a self described conservative, who supports anti gun, pro abort, big tax and spend liberal Republicans? What do you call one who supports raising the minimum wage? How about the one that supports a socialist redistribution of wealth liked the one that Ricky has signed onto with Kennedy and Schumer? What do you call one who praises the SS system and wants to raise the tax base.
You can call an apple a pear, but it doesn't make it so.
You can call Ricky a conservative, but that ain't true either. And apparently, neither are you.
Evil takes many forms.
Is socialism evil? If you have a shred of honesty, you'll say yes.
Is Ricky (and many others in congress) supporting socialism? If you have another shred of honesty left over, you say yes again.
Socialism from the likes of Kennedy or Shumer is what you expect and you recognize it as evil.
You DO NOT expect it from someone with supposedly conservative credentials, so when he advocates it, it gives an air of respectibility to it. Socialism destroys the moral focus of the people and leads to their enslavement. If you don't call that evil, then you are an idiot.
Oh puh-leeze.
It was raw political maneuvering when he had the chance to enhance the conservative position. He was 'doing his job' as a political hack so that he could advance within the party. But, he blew it.
Sure it would. That way they can get down into the mud of socialism and government expansion without being called on the carpet.
The question is, will America be better off with two full fledged socialist big government parties?
I will remain free and in charge of my life regardless of what party wins. You apparently want government to be in charge of your life -- from cradle to grave.
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