Live Thread - Update: First in 2005 Tropical Storm Arlene Public Advisory 1

National Hurricane Center ^ | 5 PM EDT WED JUN 08 2005

[varina davis]

Excuse if already posted:

Tropical Storm Arlene Forms in Caribbean By JENNIFER KAY The Associated Press Thursday, June 9, 2005; 9:15 AM MIAMI -- Tropical Storm Arlene developed Thursday in the northwest Caribbean Sea, edging closer to western Cuba as the Atlantic hurricane season's first named storm. Gulf Coast residents, including those in storm-battered Florida, were warned to beware. Arlene had maximum sustained winds of 40 mph after strengthening from a tropical depression that formed Wednesday, the National Hurricane Center in Miami said. Tropical storms have top sustained winds of 39 mph to 74 mph. At 8 a.m. EDT, the storm's center was about 190 miles south-southeast of the western tip of Cuba. It was moving north at about 8 mph, and this motion could bring the storm's center near western Cuba as early as Thursday night, forecasters said. Arlene was expected to enter the Gulf of Mexico by Friday, and residents from Florida to Louisiana were told to keep an eye on the tropical storm. "Our best estimate of the track possibilities are that anywhere from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle could expect the center to be approaching them by the middle of the weekend," hurricane specialist Richard Knabb said. Forecasters said Arlene was likely to remain a tropical storm, but Navy meteorologist Lt. Dave Roberts said there was an "outside shot" that the system could develop into a weak hurricane, depending on atmospheric conditions. The Cuban government has issued a tropical storm watch for the western province of Pinar Del Rio to the capital of Havana. The depression was causing heavy rains and squalls across the Cayman Islands and western and central Cuba. Forecasters warned that very heavy rains in Nicaragua and Honduras could cause flash floods and mud slides. Last year, the first named storm of the season was Tropical Storm Alex, which formed Aug. 1. It later became a hurricane and came within 9 miles of the Outer Banks, N.C. Within weeks, Florida was struck by Hurricane Charley, the first of four hurricanes to hit the state last season. It was followed by hurricanes Frances, Ivan and Jeanne. The four hurricanes damaged one out of every five homes in Florida. The storms caused about 130 deaths in the U.S. and are blamed for a total $22 billion in damage. Hurricane season began June 1 and ends Nov. 30.

[ovrtaxt]

No, I don't surf. Just determined to be cheerful this time around! Last season was a little depressing, with all the HUGE trees we had to cut up and haul off.

[nwctwx]

ping me please. :)

[Howlin]

I've been waiting for you to show up! Done!

[nwctwx]

Some good reads from this morning on Arlene:

Arlene -- NOT FL but New Orleans/ Delta, then Memphis and Chi town
Arlene: Ideas and Estimates

And, guess what... new invest up already.

Invest 91L

[NautiNurse]

Cheerful is good.

Tropical Storm Arlene Advisory Number 5
Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on June 09, 2005

...Weather should worsen over western Cuba today as Arlene
approaches...

 
at 11 am EDT...1500 UTC...a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued
for the Dry Tortugas.

 
At 11 am EDT...1500 UTC...the government of the Cayman Islands has
issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the Cayman Islands.

 
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for western Cuba from
Pinar del Rio to city of Havana and Havana provinces...including the
Isle of Youth.

 
Interests elsewhere in the northwestern Caribbean and the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico should closely monitor the progress of
this system.

 
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

 
At 11 am EDT...1500z...the poorly-defined center of Tropical Storm
Arlene was located near latitude 19.4 north...longitude  84.1 west
or about  190 miles... 305 km...west of Grand Cayman and about  165
miles... 270 km...south-southeast of the western tip of Cuba.

 
Arlene is moving toward the north near 8 mph ...13 km/hr. This
general motion is expected to continue with a gradual increase in
forward speed during the next 24 hours...bringing the center near
or over western Cuba tonight or early Friday.

 
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph... 65 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours. An
Air Force plane will check Arlene this afternoon.

 
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 150 miles...240 km 
to the north and east of the center.

 
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb...29.59 inches.

Heavy rainfall...accompanied by squalls...is spreading across the
Cayman Islands...as well as central and western Cuba and into the
southern Florida Keys.  Total rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches
are possible in these areas in association with Arlene....mainly to
the north and east of the center. 

Repeating the 11 am EDT position...19.4 N... 84.1 W.  Movement
toward...north near  8 mph.  Maximum sustained winds... 40 mph. 
Minimum central pressure...1002 mb.

 
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 2 PM EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 5 PM
EDT.

 
Forecaster Avila/Knabb

[Howlin]

See, that's why I always look forward to your posts! Even though they worry me. :-)

[nwctwx]

While these early season storms typically don't gain major status in the windspeed departments, we will have to closely watch upper air conditions once in the gulf. The current NHC forecast brings Arlene over the warmest water in the region... water that is certainly warmer than normal for this time of the yr, and 80-85+ is typically quite conducive to hurricane sustainement.

https://128.160.23.54/products/K10/caribbeank10.gif

Current Track Forecast

[nwctwx]

Thanks... no need for worry, yet. ;-)

If that Atlantic Ridge pumps up as some are forecasting, it could be a long season. Everything has been speculation thus far, but it will be interesting to see what these systems do in the warmer than normal tropical atlantic.

[NautiNurse]

Great info--thanks. While I realize TSs are like the stock market, where historical performance is not indicative of future activity...

I still find it interesting that 152 years of records do not carry a storm as far west as AL at landfall for another storm in the vicinity of Arlene this time of year.

[Howlin]

Do either one of you remember the graphic from last year where you could check the storms on the African continent? It was fascinating. It seems like it was on the Weather Channel, but I can't find it.

[SlowBoat407]

Unless the Bermuda High fills in, I fear the East Coast is in for a lot more trouble. Last year it extended pretty far south, which is why Florida took so many hits.

[NautiNurse]

Here's a site. Larger image available with a click. Have so many storm sites bookmarked, need to do some house cleaning.

Satellite Data Selector

[nwctwx]

Historical records are good in some cases... but the current weather pattern doesn't match up with those tracks (save a 1906 type event). Last year, I posted the following in a Threat Matrix thread while conversing about the forming Charley... you will note that the historical map presented wasn't much help with that one.

---

"Charley is still a big question mark. A Florida hit appears likeliest at this point, but some things today are focusing my attention towards the FL Panhandle/Coastal Alabama area. So far, Charley has stayed further south than any computer models suggested. This will allow the storm to have less interaction with land, and it is quite possible that it will be a very strong storm (verging on Category 3/Major) once it gets into the Gulf of Mexico. The bigger the storm gets, the less it will be pulled along by the jet stream to the north. If it can gain enough steam to become a major hurricane, all bets are off. By late tomorrow evening, questions in regards to a Florida hit will be answered. This East Coast Trough (frontal system - jet stream buckle) is VERY strong for august and is actually much more typical once we get into Autumn in the US. If Charley does not manage to "create it's own weather", he will certainly go right up the east coast after the initial hit somewhere in the eastern GOM.

This following image is a historical map of where storms have gone that have been in Charley's neighborhood. If western Florida does get hit, this will be a very unusual August storm system."

More Here..

[nwctwx]

It looks like it may try to weaken and push east by early-middle next week, for a time. Thus far, it has aligned itself further north than it did last yr... already had the first 90F here in the hills of CT, never had that last summer. If it comes back in a similar fashion in the future - or doesn't break down - you are likely correct... it would push tracks north, towards the SE coast before recurve.

[SlowBoat407]

I don't know if my area would survive a Cat 2 or greater. We've built up quite a bit with little regard to protection against big storms. The people who got nailed in Isabel are rebuilding with hurricane-proof standards, but there are still a lot of places that will go down quickly in 100 mph winds.

This is when I'm glad I live three blocks from the beach. Any closer, and I'd be even more worried.

[Howlin]

That's one, but not the one I saw.

[nwctwx]

I remember it, I think I have it saved in links somewhere... this is all I found right now though.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/europe/movies/metir/metirjava.html

[Howlin]

Was it this one?

http://www.weather.com/maps/news/atlstorm1/africasatellite_large_animated.html

[nwctwx]

nope