Posted on 06/06/2005 9:25:25 AM PDT by Righty_McRight
Airbus is widely expected to win the prize for hoopla at this year's June 13-19 Paris Air Show, by parading its giant new A380 there, and also by launching its new A350 twinjet with an anticipated order from Emirates airline.
But there's at least a chance that Boeing will grab headlines with a dramatic move of its own -- in the form of a launch order for the 747 Advanced, a new version of Boeing's largest and most venerable commercial aircraft. The reconfigured airliner would feature more powerful and more efficient engines derived from Boeing's new 787.
But even if the 747 Advanced isn't launched at the show, most analysts give Boeing a better-than-even chance of launching the new version of the 747 sometime before the end of the summer, when The Boeing Co. has said it will either decide to go ahead with a new version or kill the 747 entirely.
"I think it stands perhaps the best chance it ever had," said John Walsh, president of Walsh Aviation, a consultant in Annapolis, Md., about Boeing's newest approach to the 747. "If Boeing could have something at the Paris Air Show that would get carriers' attention, the timing might not be so bad."
Boeing's previous efforts to re-invent the four-engined 747-400, with its characteristic fuselage hump, have amounted to little more than a mouthful of alphabet soup.
Back in 1996 Boeing was talking up a re-winged version it called the 747-500X and 747-600X, followed the next year by the 747-400IGW (increased gross weight), which also failed. The 747-400ER (extended range) actually won a few orders from Australian carrier Qantas Airways and others, but those contracts haven't stopped the 747's slow slide to oblivion. The last attempt to revive the giant airliner was dubbed the 747-400XQLR; Boeing offered it to the world at the 2002 Singapore Air Show, but it never sold.
Now, with just 28 new 747s on order and only seven of those designated as passenger aircraft, the model seems at the end of the line unless it has a new beginning.
The proposed revamp of the 747 has several unique features that could set it apart from failed predecessors: It would for the first time include new and more efficient engines; it would offer new space for first-class beds without compromising room for seats; and it could be ready for launch at a time of market upswing. In recent months as the market turns upward, Boeing has been more aggressive with pricing and more successful with orders.
So far this year, Boeing has won 168 orders for 737s and 62 orders for 787s. That pace is far ahead of Airbus, and it exceeds Boeing's mid-year performances of the past several years. Boeing's new aggressiveness, coupled with the enhanced fleet presence that the recent orders represent with key airlines, could help give the 747 renewed traction in the market.
"At this point, with the success of the 787 orders, the synergy of packaging the 777 with 787 seems to be working. If you put the 747 Advanced in the package, and it has the engine commonality with the 787, that could be a big plus," Walsh said.
The 787, also known as the Dreamliner, is Boeing's new high-technology mid-sized aircraft, featuring mostly composite wings and fuselage, high fuel efficiency and a long 8,000-mile range. Airbus' response to the 787 has been to propose its A350, a less-advanced but cheaper-to-develop derivative of its decades-old twinjet, the A330.
Boeing's proposed 747 Advanced is a derivative that will carry about 450 passengers similar distances, competing directly against Airbus' new 540-seat double-deck A380.
Observers also say that Boeing has a big incentive to lower the price of the 747 enough to keep it alive and re-start sales, because that is one way it can keep pricing pressure on the Airbus A380, and keep it from becoming a cash cow for its parent company.
"If it (the 747) can limit Airbus' cash flow from the A380, it can hamstring them a bit as a player, and maybe stop them from investing in a competitor for the 787," said Charles Hill, a business professor at the University of Washington who focuses on the aerospace industry.
Airbus' own efforts to match the 787 are now in the form of a derivative of the somewhat dated Airbus 330, a proposed plane Airbus has dubbed the A350. But funding for these aircraft has become a point of contention between the United States and the European Union. Both have filed complaints against the other in the World Trade Organization about illegal subsidies.
Airbus officials already have conceded that development costs for the A380 have run nearly $2 billion over budget, which will mean Airbus needs to sell more than twice the number now on order, currently 139, just to break even.
For Joe Sutter, the former Boeing executive credited with the creation of the 747 back in the late 1960s, the new engines are the essential difference that will set the 747 Advanced apart from earlier attempts to create a new derivative of the aircraft. Sutter, now 84, is an active consultant for Boeing Commercial Airplanes who traveled to Asia twice in the last month, "helping the boys," as he put it.
"Most of those attempts were made because a particular customer wanted more range or a quieter airplane, but it tended to be one or two customers," Sutter said, adding that the engine makers hadn't been interested in spending billions of dollars for a new engine for an aircraft that only promised a limited market. But the 13-percent-more-efficient 787's engines are proving to be almost the perfect size to power the proposed 747 Advanced.
"What's happened is the 747 now has the engines it wants, through the side door, if you will," Sutter said. "Those engines are ideal to be applied to the 747, and that's when the 747 Advanced started looking quite promising."
Boeing designers are positioning the 747 Advanced to fit in a market hole halfway between the 380 seats of the Airbus A340 and the 540 seats of the Airbus A380. By adding 140 inches to the fuselage, Boeing will expand the 747 Advanced capacity to 450 seats, including space for up to 40 berths for first class passengers, in the space above the main cabin and behind the hump. The new aircraft is to include increased use of new alloys and some composites, although it won't be as advanced structurally as the mostly composite 787.
"We are actively marketing the 747, and we still think the world needs a 450-seat size," said Anita Holt, regional director of product marketing for Boeing Commercial Airplanes. "The technologies available in the last couple of years, when applied to the 747, it yields an airplane that is generating more interest than previous 747 derivatives."
Observers also say that Boeing has a big incentive to lower the price of the 747 enough to keep it alive and re-start sales, because that is one way it can keep pricing pressure on the Airbus A380, and keep it from becoming a cash cow for its parent company.
"If it (the 747) can limit Airbus' cash flow from the A380, it can hamstring them a bit as a player, and maybe stop them from investing in a competitor for the 787," said Charles Hill, a business professor at the University of Washington who focuses on the aerospace industry.
Airbus' own efforts to match the 787 are now in the form of a derivative of the somewhat dated Airbus 330, a proposed plane Airbus has dubbed the A350. But funding for these aircraft has become a point of contention between the United States and the European Union. Both have filed complaints against the other in the World Trade Organization about illegal subsidies.
Airbus officials already have conceded that development costs for the A380 have run nearly $2 billion over budget, which will mean Airbus needs to sell more than twice the number now on order, currently 139, just to break even.
For Joe Sutter, the former Boeing executive credited with the creation of the 747 back in the late 1960s, the new engines are the essential difference that will set the 747 Advanced apart from earlier attempts to create a new derivative of the aircraft. Sutter, now 84, is an active consultant for Boeing Commercial Airplanes who traveled to Asia twice in the last month, "helping the boys," as he put it.
"Most of those attempts were made because a particular customer wanted more range or a quieter airplane, but it tended to be one or two customers," Sutter said, adding that the engine makers hadn't been interested in spending billions of dollars for a new engine for an aircraft that only promised a limited market. But the 13-percent-more-efficient 787's engines are proving to be almost the perfect size to power the proposed 747 Advanced.
"What's happened is the 747 now has the engines it wants, through the side door, if you will," Sutter said. "Those engines are ideal to be applied to the 747, and that's when the 747 Advanced started looking quite promising."
Boeing designers are positioning the 747 Advanced to fit in a market hole halfway between the 380 seats of the Airbus A340 and the 540 seats of the Airbus A380. By adding 140 inches to the fuselage, Boeing will expand the 747 Advanced capacity to 450 seats, including space for up to 40 berths for first class passengers, in the space above the main cabin and behind the hump. The new aircraft is to include increased use of new alloys and some composites, although it won't be as advanced structurally as the mostly composite 787.
"We are actively marketing the 747, and we still think the world needs a 450-seat size," said Anita Holt, regional director of product marketing for Boeing Commercial Airplanes. "The technologies available in the last couple of years, when applied to the 747, it yields an airplane that is generating more interest than previous 747 derivatives."
Observers also say that Boeing has a big incentive to lower the price of the 747 enough to keep it alive and re-start sales, because that is one way it can keep pricing pressure on the Airbus A380, and keep it from becoming a cash cow for its parent company.
"If it (the 747) can limit Airbus' cash flow from the A380, it can hamstring them a bit as a player, and maybe stop them from investing in a competitor for the 787," said Charles Hill, a business professor at the University of Washington who focuses on the aerospace industry.
Airbus' own efforts to match the 787 are now in the form of a derivative of the somewhat dated Airbus 330, a proposed plane Airbus has dubbed the A350. But funding for these aircraft has become a point of contention between the United States and the European Union. Both have filed complaints against the other in the World Trade Organization about illegal subsidies.
Airbus officials already have conceded that development costs for the A380 have run nearly $2 billion over budget, which will mean Airbus needs to sell more than twice the number now on order, currently 139, just to break even.
For Joe Sutter, the former Boeing executive credited with the creation of the 747 back in the late 1960s, the new engines are the essential difference that will set the 747 Advanced apart from earlier attempts to create a new derivative of the aircraft. Sutter, now 84, is an active consultant for Boeing Commercial Airplanes who traveled to Asia twice in the last month, "helping the boys," as he put it.
"Most of those attempts were made because a particular customer wanted more range or a quieter airplane, but it tended to be one or two customers," Sutter said, adding that the engine makers hadn't been interested in spending billions of dollars for a new engine for an aircraft that only promised a limited market. But the 13-percent-more-efficient 787's engines are proving to be almost the perfect size to power the proposed 747 Advanced.
"What's happened is the 747 now has the engines it wants, through the side door, if you will," Sutter said. "Those engines are ideal to be applied to the 747, and that's when the 747 Advanced started looking quite promising."
Boeing designers are positioning the 747 Advanced to fit in a market hole halfway between the 380 seats of the Airbus A340 and the 540 seats of the Airbus A380. By adding 140 inches to the fuselage, Boeing will expand the 747 Advanced capacity to 450 seats, including space for up to 40 berths for first class passengers, in the space above the main cabin and behind the hump. The new aircraft is to include increased use of new alloys and some composites, although it won't be as advanced structurally as the mostly composite 787.
"We are actively marketing the 747, and we still think the world needs a 450-seat size," said Anita Holt, regional director of product marketing for Boeing Commercial Airplanes. "The technologies available in the last couple of years, when applied to the 747, it yields an airplane that is generating more interest than previous 747 derivatives."
Observers also say that Boeing has a big incentive to lower the price of the 747 enough to keep it alive and re-start sales, because that is one way it can keep pricing pressure on the Airbus A380, and keep it from becoming a cash cow for its parent company.
"If it (the 747) can limit Airbus' cash flow from the A380, it can hamstring them a bit as a player, and maybe stop them from investing in a competitor for the 787," said Charles Hill, a business professor at the University of Washington who focuses on the aerospace industry.
Airbus' own efforts to match the 787 are now in the form of a derivative of the somewhat dated Airbus 330, a proposed plane Airbus has dubbed the A350. But funding for these aircraft has become a point of contention between the United States and the European Union. Both have filed complaints against the other in the World Trade Organization about illegal subsidies.
Airbus officials already have conceded that development costs for the A380 have run nearly $2 billion over budget, which will mean Airbus needs to sell more than twice the number now on order, currently 139, just to break even.
For Joe Sutter, the former Boeing executive credited with the creation of the 747 back in the late 1960s, the new engines are the essential difference that will set the 747 Advanced apart from earlier attempts to create a new derivative of the aircraft. Sutter, now 84, is an active consultant for Boeing Commercial Airplanes who traveled to Asia twice in the last month, "helping the boys," as he put it.
"Most of those attempts were made because a particular customer wanted more range or a quieter airplane, but it tended to be one or two customers," Sutter said, adding that the engine makers hadn't been interested in spending billions of dollars for a new engine for an aircraft that only promised a limited market. But the 13-percent-more-efficient 787's engines are proving to be almost the perfect size to power the proposed 747 Advanced.
"What's happened is the 747 now has the engines it wants, through the side door, if you will," Sutter said. "Those engines are ideal to be applied to the 747, and that's when the 747 Advanced started looking quite promising."
Boeing designers are positioning the 747 Advanced to fit in a market hole halfway between the 380 seats of the Airbus A340 and the 540 seats of the Airbus A380. By adding 140 inches to the fuselage, Boeing will expand the 747 Advanced capacity to 450 seats, including space for up to 40 berths for first class passengers, in the space above the main cabin and behind the hump. The new aircraft is to include increased use of new alloys and some composites, although it won't be as advanced structurally as the mostly composite 787.
"We are actively marketing the 747, and we still think the world needs a 450-seat size," said Anita Holt, regional director of product marketing for Boeing Commercial Airplanes. "The technologies available in the last couple of years, when applied to the 747, it yields an airplane that is generating more interest than previous 747 derivatives."
The list of possible launch customers includes many international airlines: Thai Airways, Japan Airlines, Singapore Airlines, Qantas Airways and Cathay Pacific Airways, Sutter said.
"China Air, because they're big haulers, may be one of the early ones," he added.
Boeing Commercial Airplanes CEO Alan Mulally, in remarks before analysts on May 24, said he's upbeat about the potential for the newest version of the 747.
"The advanced airplane looks really good," he said, adding that the company is in "final negotiations" with some customers on exactly what they need in the new model.
Mulally called the aircraft "a very nice value solution to the airlines," adding that the 787 engines are allowing Boeing to stretch the airplane while adding 500 miles in range (to about 8,000 miles), and reducing noise.
Another advantage Boeing is touting is an expected 3 percent lower cost per available seat mile than the A380, and a 20 percent lower trip cost.
Airbus spokesman Clay McConnell dismissed the Boeing projections out of hand, saying the idea that a smaller aircraft could be more efficient than the A380 is "counterintuitive at best."
Holt doesn't expect the 747 to attain the weight saving of the 787, which is built almost completely of light composites. But she does expect the new 747 will include higher use of composites and new aluminum alloys, some of which were developed for the 787 when mostly aluminum construction was still being considered.
Richard Aboulafia, analyst for The Teal Group outside Washington, D.C., said he gives the 747 Advanced a 60 percent chance of being launched.
"I don't think Airbus has done a better job," he said. "It doesn't look like the A380 will have much of an advantage, if at all, in cost."
This has to go down as the worst cut and paste job ever. Do you realize that you posted the same few paragraphs over and over and over and over again.
You actually read the whole thing??
Well, we all make a few mistakes from time to time here at FR -- I know I do!
Your right ..it it the worst cut and paste job ...Your right ..it it the worst cut and paste job ...Your right ..it it the worst cut and paste job ...
Your right ..it it the worst cut and paste job ...
Your right ..it it the worst cut and paste job ...Your right ..it it the worst cut and paste job ...
NeverGore :^)
Oh heck it's no mistake!! That's the french version!! Repeat, repeat, and repeat until the NON is a yes vote!! :)
They sure have nerve to accuse Boeing of being subsidized! This thing will never make a profit, plus the airport remodeling costs are just too costly. The 747 advanced can move people faster, cheaper with 2 flights (which adds more convenience) and won't cost airports a nickle in upgrades to handle it.
"If it (the 747) can limit Airbus' cash flow from the A380, it can hamstring them a bit as a player, and maybe stop them from investing in a competitor for the 787," said Charles Hill, a business professor at the University of Washington who focuses on the aerospace industry.
"If it (the 747) can limit Airbus' cash flow from the A380, it can hamstring them a bit as a player, and maybe stop them from investing in a competitor for the 787," said Charles Hill, a business professor at the University of Washington who focuses on the aerospace industry.
"If it (the 747) can limit Airbus' cash flow from the A380, it can hamstring them a bit as a player, and maybe stop them from investing in a competitor for the 787," said Charles Hill, a business professor at the University of Washington who focuses on the aerospace industry.
...and...
"If it (the 747) can limit Airbus' cash flow from the A380, it can hamstring them a bit as a player, and maybe stop them from investing in a competitor for the 787," said Charles Hill, a business professor at the University of Washington who focuses on the aerospace industry.
He must have had a minimum required number of words, but ran out things to say...
Actually, I believe that it is a copy and paste and paste and paste yet again.
Thank God. I thought I was having a short term memory problem there for awhile.
Paging the Department of Redundancy Department...
Ping!
The Paris Air Show has been metamorphosing from the biggest air show in the world into a Euro-French propaganda event. I think Boeing would do better to stay away. In the long run, I think we need to move this air show somewhere else.
I don't see how marketing the Airbus, could be profitable. Nearly all of the airports can't handle such a long runway.
Yes sir, worst cut and paste ever.
What? Most of the previous new 747 models had new and improved engines. The ones for the 747 Advanced will just be the most efficient new engines ever put on a 747.
The A380 needs less runway length to take off and land than a 747. This should not be surprising, because its wing has less sweep. If Boeing had been able to sell a rewinged 747, it too would have less sweep than current 747s. It is the separation between runways and taxiways that is the problem. Just about any airport that has a runway capable of handling 747 can allow an A380 to land or take off especially in case of emergeny. The problem is that without upgrades to taxiways and in some cases increasing the distance between parallel runways, just about all other aircraft movements would at an airport would have to be stopped while they A380 is taxiing or taking off.
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